It’s clear that Kansas City was one of the biggest disappointments last season after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. However, it was something that felt inevitable, as the offense simply wasn’t working, and despite reaching three consecutive Super Bowls, they were nowhere near playoff contention last season.
Now, the Chiefs have no choice but to work their way back to the top of the AFC. Their first step was signing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency, making him their new running back. With this addition, sportsbooks have once again placed Mahomes and company as favorites to win the AFC West.
When the season ended and betting lines opened, the Los Angeles Chargers were the favorites to win the division, with the Chiefs in second place. Interestingly, the Denver Broncos-who finished as the No. 1 seed in the AFC-were projected third, while the Las Vegas Raiders were last.
The Broncos remain lower in projections despite trading for Jaylen Waddle.
This week started with a blockbuster move, as Denver completed a trade with the Miami Dolphins for Waddle, which includes multiple draft picks, including Denver’s 2026 first-round selection. In return, they acquire an explosive receiver with elite speed and plenty left in the tank.
Even so, betting odds have only slightly improved-from +1900 to +1800-keeping Denver ranked 12th among Super Bowl favorites. There is still limited confidence in Sean Payton’s project, despite leading the team to win the AFC in 2025 and coming just short of a Super Bowl appearance.
The Broncos won the AFC West for the first time since 2016, but now enter the season projected third in the division. They are also the sixth favorites to win the AFC, behind teams like the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, the Chiefs, the Chargers, and the New England Patriots.
That said, it would be a mistake to overlook Denver. They’ve proven they can win close games, Bo Nix has taken a step forward, Payton brings experience, and the offense is loaded with weapons like Waddle and Courtland Sutton. The AFC is shaping up to be highly competitive.
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