The Oklahoma City Thunder begin the 2025-26 campaign positioned as the leading contender to win the championship, according to ESPN’s annual preseason survey of league insiders.
After securing last season’s title, the Thunder are regarded as the strongest team in the Western Conference and the most likely to achieve the NBA’s first repeat since the Golden State Warriors of 2018.
The survey results reflected broad confidence in Oklahoma City’s trajectory. With only two players over the age of 27, the defending champions combine a young core with championship experience, creating optimism that their success can be sustained.
ESPN’s Tim Bontemps noted that the Thunder received the overwhelming majority of votes, with the Denver Nuggets the only other franchise to register significant support.
Denver viewed as principal rival
While some observers point to Kevin Durant’s Houston Rockets as an emerging threat, most analysts consider Denver the team best positioned to challenge Oklahoma City.
The Nuggets’ confidence rests on the presence of three-time Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic and a series of roster moves aimed at addressing depth and balance.
During the offseason, Denver replaced starting forward Michael Porter Jr. with Cameron Johnson, acquired veteran center Jonas Valanciunas to strengthen its frontcourt, and added perimeter contributors Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. The changes provide additional scoring and defensive stability while maintaining the core group that won a title in 2023.
The contrast between the two organizations underscores a broader dynamic in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City enters the season as the youngest reigning champion in recent memory, while Denver relies on experience, continuity, and the steady dominance of Jokic.
MVP debate reinforces Jokic’s standing
The preseason survey also addressed individual honors, highlighting the ongoing competition between Jokic and Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Gilgeous-Alexander, last season’s MVP, received considerable backing to retain the award.
However, when respondents were asked to identify the league’s best overall player, Jokic was the near-unanimous selection.
Bontemps reported that Jokic fell just one vote short of becoming the first unanimous choice in the survey’s seven-year history. Luka Doncic received the only other recognition, while Gilgeous-Alexander, despite his MVP status, was not named in this category. The outcome illustrates a distinction between statistical value in a given season and sustained recognition as the league’s most dominant force.
For Gilgeous-Alexander, who is entering his prime at 27, the results signal both respect for his recent achievements and acknowledgment that Jokic remains the standard by which others are measured. The survey anticipates another close competition for the MVP award, reflecting the central role both players hold in shaping the Western Conference race.
Western Conference dominance
Perhaps most telling was the absence of any votes for Eastern Conference teams to capture the championship. The results underscored the prevailing view that the balance of power remains heavily skewed toward the West.
With Oklahoma City and Denver seen as clear frontrunners, and Houston identified as an outsider, the survey suggests that the path to the 2026 title will run through the Western Conference once again.
The Thunder, however, enter the season with a rare combination of youth, depth, and proven success. Whether they can transform those advantages into consecutive championships will define the narrative of the upcoming campaign.
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