You must have seen the overtime stunners where the Seattle Seahawks beat the Los Angeles Rams and the Chicago Bears beat the Green Bay Packers — with both games rearranging the NFC seeding for the playoffs. You probably saw the Pittsburgh Steelers edge the Detroit Lions in a potential loser-goes-home outcome. You definitely saw the Jacksonville Jaguars take down the top-seeded Denver Broncos.
So let’s try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we witnessed in Week 16. This is “Sound Smart,” where we prepare you for Monday morning with seven observations from the Sunday slate. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s Week 16 action.
1. IF THERE’S ONLY ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM WEEK 16 …
No team has announced itself as a legitimate Super Bowl favorite.
When the Rams lost to the Seahawks this Thursday, it reminded me of the Washington Commanders’ win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16 last year. It’s brutally challenging to sweep a division rival, and so it made sense the Rams couldn’t do it against the Seahawks. That Commanders’ win didn’t really change our opinions of the Eagles — and Philly justified that confidence by beating Washington in the NFC Championship Game.
So that’s likely to happen again, right?
The Rams should beat the Seahawks in the NFC title game. Right?
Well, that’s where it’s different: Seattle took the No. 1 seed from L.A. — and the Rams tumbled to the No. 5 seed. That didn’t happen for the Eagles. Even after their regular-season loss to the Commanders, Philly entered the playoffs with their division title and the No. 2 seed.
If you’re like me, you probably think the Rams are the Super Bowl favorites. But historically speaking, that could be a long shot. We’ve only ever seen seven wild-card teams win the Super Bowl. In the past 14 years, the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only wild-card team to even appear in the Super Bowl.
And the NFC was supposed to be where things were clear(-ish).
The Rams have looked like the class of the NFC (and maybe the NFL) for much of the season but are in danger of being a wild-card team heading into the postseason. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)
It’s way messier in the AFC.
The Jaguars just absolutely handed it to the top-seeded Broncos in Denver.
New England (the No. 2 seed) is coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills (the No. 6 seed) last week.
This weekend, the Bills nearly lost to the lowly Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans nearly lost to the abominable Las Vegas Raiders.
The Bills are my favorite in the AFC, because Josh Allen has the clearest path he’ll probably ever get. There’s no Patrick Mahomes. There’s no Joe Burrow. Lamar Jackson is probably out, too. And Allen has shown a desperation and competence in the fourth quarter that few QBs have done this year. But the Bills showed against the Browns that they’re vulnerable. And that vulnerable Bills team will also likely have to come from a wild-card seed, just like the Rams.
In the AFC, who do you believe in? Any team’s case is as good as the next,
In the NFC, who do you believe in? Every team has at least one major issue.
I understand that it’s football: Any given Sunday. But not on Super Bowl Sunday. That’s a more predictable game than we’re willing to admit.
Except for this year — when it’s anyone’s guess.
2. PEELING BACK THE CURTAIN
How the Bears pulled off their game-winning, 49-yard, overtime touchdown
Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams were sitting in the head coach’s office this week talking through a specific play that they intended to install for the Packers game. They talked through the fine details of the play, and decided to bring it to the practice field to see how it went. When they ran it, Williams threw a spectacular pass downfield to D.J. Moore for a touchdown.
“I thought (QB) Caleb (Williams) threw a dime in practice and D.J. came down with it, and we’re hopeful that it may or may not be there,” Johnson said.
The next step was to take that play and use it in a game, of course.
So on first-and-10 in overtime against the Packers, Johnson called it. Williams dropped back and — with confidence built through perfect execution in practice — delivered a pinpoint pass downfield to Moore. Even in the air …
“I knew it was good,” Williams said.
Moore caught the pass for a game-winning, 46-yard touchdown.
“We timed that one up right,” Johnson said.
That’s an understatement.
The Packers let the Bears hang around until Caleb Williams finally pounced with two pristine TD throws for an improbable comeback. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
It’s Johnson’s rookie season as a head coach. But the 11-4 Bears look like a team that’s under veteran leadership, especially considering they finished 5-12 last season.
“I’ve got the best coach in the world,” Williams told reporters postgame. “We have the best coaching staff in the world, and so you put the talent with the coaches and the people that care, you can strive for anything. You can reach anything. You can go after any goal.”
How about the Super Bowl?
Surely, Williams is thinking about it.
“It was a great moment,” he said. “I got a lot of great moments coming up.”
The pairing between Johnson and Williams hasn’t always been natural. Johnson has urged Williams in public and private to make more use of the scheme — and improvise less. But Johnson has also praised Williams’ creative tools, which help the Bears bail out Johnson when his playcall falls short.
On this particular play, it was pure synergy — a great call that got the most out of the players.
“He came through and he always makes plays when needed. He’s clutch like that,” Johnson said. “I really do think he is playing some of his best football right now of the year.”
With the perfect play, Johnson and the Bears took the No. 2 seed — and sent the Packers plummeting to the No. 7 seed.
It’s a testament to Johnson’s coaching that Williams is playing so well. That play demonstrated as much. It was a culmination of all the systems and processes that Johnson has put into place since arriving in Chicago that has gotten the organization back on track. And while there are a great number of strong candidates for Coach of the Year — from Mike Vrabel to Sean Payton to Liam Coen to Kyle Shanahan — Johnson has the strongest case.
3. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY
In a three-play span, Amon-Ra St. Brown scored two touchdowns — only to have both called back because of separate offensive pass interference penalties. Because of those calls, the Steelers won. The Lions are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs. And the Ravens’ playoff chances sunk, too.
At the end of the game, the scoreboard at Acrisure Stadium showed: Lions 30, Steelers 29.
The scoreboard was, of course, incorrect.
But it helped paint the picture of the chaos that unfolded in the final moments.
On the game’s final play, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught the ball short of the goal line, which was why he pitched the ball to quarterback Jared Goff, who leaped into the end zone for the game-winning score.
And it would’ve been incredible. Just amazing … except that there was a flag on the field for offensive pass interference on St. Brown. The officials huddled and convened and chit-chatted and discussed amongst themselves and, finally, relayed the call. The lead official had to clarify: “The game is over.”
That’s never a good sign.
Finally, when we got a look at the play, we could see that, yes, the Lions receiver did, in fact, commit OPI.
But!
As I said, that was St. Brown’s second almost-touchdown in a three-play span. The other one, just two plays earlier, was also called back with a different offensive pass interference. And that one was far more questionable.
On that play, Lions rookie receiver Isaac Teslaa set a pick for St. Brown. And though the play looked legitimate enough from Teslaa, who ran a slant into Steelers defensive backs and sprung St. Brown for a wide-open touchdown, the officials deemed it illegal.
Both plays will end up being the topic of discussion in the coming days, not just because of the way the officials took over the game but also because of the massive playoff ramifications.
If one of those (almost) touchdowns had stood, the Lions would’ve had a 49% chance at the playoffs, per Next Gen Stats. As it stands now, they have a 6% chance. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ win moved their chances up to 76% — avoiding the massive slip down to 55%, if they’d lost. (And they extended their streak without a losing season to 22 years in the process, which includes Mike Tomlin’s entire 19-year tenure.)
The focus will probably land on the final play — but in my mind, that’s not even the controversial one. That was the Teslaa penalty, which was the one that looked like an overstep from the officials.
4. LOST MY TRUST & EARNED MY TRUST
Earned my trust: Packers QB Malik Willis
There’s a lot of talk about how Mac Jones might be the next veteran to revive his career in the same vein as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold and Geno Smith (and seemingly Daniel Jones, before tearing his Achilles two weeks ago).
But what about simply a come-up? What about Willis?
He’s a veteran backup who has been the picture of consistency when he replaces quarterback Jordan Love — as we saw again in Week 16 on Saturday night. He completed 9 of 11 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown.
For most of the year, we’ve made excuses for backups. Well, he didn’t practice with the starters this week. In all of Willis’ work spelling Love on a moment’s notice, Willis is at least solid — and often terrific.
There’s a scenario where a good team could build around Willis in some of the ways that the Eagles have built around Jalen Hurts — but without the massive contract. So far as we’ve seen, Willis excels as a low-volume, ball-control passer who has the ability to tuck it and run. And that’s without an offseason of snaps with the starters (as we’ve over-discussed with the narratives surrounding Shedeur Sanders).
What if a team like the Colts, who might no longer be keen on bringing an injured Jones back, gave Willis a shot as QB1? That would be a fascinating match.
Lost my trust: 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk
Just this week, Shanahan publicly called out Aiyuk for failing to show up for work — rarely showing his face at Levi’s Stadium since he suffered his ACL tear in 2024.
“(I’ve) been trying to get him back to our team really since then and haven’t been able to pull that off,” Shanahan said last week. “So I haven’t totally had the opportunity to get him part of our team. He has been extremely distant since he got hurt. I was hoping it would happen once he got healthy, but (that) never happened.”
This weekend, the 49ers receiver posted a video of what appeared to be him driving past the 49ers facility. At times, the speedometer reads over 100.
The 49ers are 10-4 going into Week 16. Aiyuk’s absence is only proving they don’t need him. It looks worse and worse for the receiver, who will likely land on another team in 2026. There has been no shortage of drama surrounding Aiyuk since he emerged in 2023 as one of the best wideouts in the league. Since then, it sure seems like he’s been a real nightmare for the team.
He signed a four-year contract worth $120 million after a lengthy negotiation where he demanded a trade, seemingly only for leverage (later rejecting trade and contract offers from the Patriots and the Steelers). That’s his right, and it’s a fair play on the business side.
But this behavior is something else. It sounds like the 49ers are exploring whether they can void Aiyuk’s contract. It’s the type of trouble that makes everyone around Aiyuk want to push him away. The truth is, someone needs to help this guy. What he’s doing isn’t just stupid. It appears to be dangerous. Here’s hoping someone can reach him.
5. STATS DON’T LIE — OR DO THEY?
According to FOX Sports research, here’s some info on Baker Mayfield’s interceptions in the fourth quarter of one-score games in his Buccaneers career:
Last 2 games: 2
First 47 games: 2
Mayfield and Mike Evans looked disjointed and disconnected on the interception that won the game for the Carolina Panthers this week.
And I think that’s notable.
You could chalk it up to bad luck. Evans was simply trying to improvise with Mayfield, who scrambled on a second-and-9 with 44 seconds left. But just as Mayfield released the ball, Evans broke in a different direction. It made for an easy interception for Carolina.
Given that Evans has missed most of this year, it’s probably not just bad luck. It’s probably that they’re not in sync. This whole offense is out of sync.
Carolina now controls the NFC South. And that’s largely because Mayfield threw an interception to close out the game. As you can see, that’s the second time he’s done it in as many weeks. The stat tells you that Baker hasn’t been himself since spraining the shoulder in his non-throwing arm in Week 12. And the tape confirms as much. That’s why — ever so slightly — I still like the Panthers to win again in Week 18 and head to the playoffs.
6. HE DID WHAT?!
During the Lions and Steelers game in Detroit, Metcalf put his hands on a Lions fan. Metcalf yanked at the fan from the front row before shoving the person.
So now what? The NFL will investigate the incident and decide upon a punishment.
That punishment will come at an all-important moment for the Steelers.
After their win over the Lions, they have a terrific chance of making the postseason. But if the Ravens win Sunday night and next, then it could come down to Week 18 when Baltimore and Pittsburgh finish out the season against each other. The Ravens have a 99% chance of making the playoffs if they win out, including that final game against the Steelers, per The Athletic’s simulator. So if Metcalf misses time, it could open the door even more for the Ravens.
In the past, Chargers safety Tony Jefferson received a fine for flipping off a fan. Lamar Jackson actually put his hands on a fan — but that was after a fan put his hands on Lamar. And Lamar didn’t get punished in any way for the incident.
Could Metcalf face just a fine? Might he miss one week?
The Steelers will brace for the NFL’s decision.
7. WHAT IF …
The Jaguars hadn’t traded up for Travis Hunter?
So the Jaguars were right. They were a receiver away from being a legitimately dangerous playoff team. It’s just that the receiver was Jakobi Meyers — not Hunter.
Now, Jacksonville’s trade for Hunter looks a bit reckless. The beauty of Hunter was that he was a two-way player for the price of one first-round pick. Well, Jacksonville stripped the star of his value by giving up a package that included two first-round picks.
Just imagine what the Jaguars could’ve done if they’d just stayed put at No. 5 overall (where they could’ve had receiver Tetairoa McMillan, among others), 36th overall (where they could’ve had edge Donovan Ezeiruaku (or even jumped past Seattle to grab Nick Emmanwori)) and 126th overall — and if they still had their 2026 first-round pick.
Trevor Lawrence is playing his best ball in years under new coach Liam Coen. (Photo by Aaron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
But there’s good news in Jacksonville — for once.
No one is talking about that trade. No one is fixating on the negative storyline in Jacksonville.
That’s because they just beat the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Coen and Trevor Lawrence look potent together. The defense is dangerous. So the folks in Jacksonville don’t mind if you call Hunter a bust. (Which would be premature, by the way.)
The once-downtrodden Jaguars have plenty of positive things to focus on, like their outside shot at landing the No. 1 seed.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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