We are getting close to two months since Super Bowl LIX, and the Kansas City Chiefs faltering on the national stage is still present in many football fans’ minds. The Philadelphia Eagles deserve almost all of the credit for their outstanding performance in the most important game, but the Chiefs’ weaknesses being exposed has fans wondering if their dynasty is over.
Kansas City’s front office has gotten to work on improving some areas. The general consensus is that Patrick Mahomes needs more help to get back to his very best. That might be true, but is it possible that Mahomes needs to fix a specific area himself? That appears to be the case.
The numbers behind Patrick Mahomes’ deep ball throwing decline
Scott Bouska, an employee of Field Vision Sports, which focuses on algorithms and advanced tech to “predict football”, published a thread detailing Mahomes’ decline on deep throws. The numbers are shocking.
In reality, Mahomes hasn’t been the same deep ball thrower since he lost Tyreek Hill. It’s no coincidence that Tua Tagovailoa became one of the better quarterbacks in that regard once Hill joined the Miami Dolphins. Hill is a quarterback elevator particularly on deep balls.
It was expected that Mahomes would revert back to that old gunslinger form when the Chiefs brought in Xavier Worthy. The fastest player in NFL Combine history showed glimpses of his speed as a rookie, but him and Mahomes never seemed to be on the same page on deep balls. Worthy also didn’t get separation at the level Hill used to.
What does this mean for the future? Worthy will likely improve in every area of the field, while Mahomes should find him deep at a higher rate. But defenses have clearly figured out that part of Mahomes’ game. It’s up to Mahomes and Andy Reid to evolve and find ways to improve it.
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