There is nearly nothing that Patrick Mahomes has not outperformed. Defenses, critics, and even football dynasties dig under his backyard’s graves. However, there is an unexpected enemy he has not defeated yet: a computer.
According to a simulation made by The New York Times, the Kansas City Chiefs’ way to the playoffs might be more difficult than fans, and even he, think. This data model, which runs thousands of seasons’ simulations, projects what EssentiallySports describes as “triple failures” for Mahomes and his current Super Bowl-contender team.
All of this has caught the attention of many fans online, but here is what is really behind it.
The “Triple Failures” conclusion explained
Under the NYT model’s projection, the Chiefs are expected to:
- Finish the regular season 11-6, indicating a couple of important losses ahead.
- Miss the first-round playoff bye, with only a 14% chance to go through the next stage.
- Have only a 12% possibility to win the Super Bowl, far lower than what expected for Mahomes and company.
So basically, even though they still have some options to have a successful season, they are not as favourites as they have been in recent years, predicting harder rivals and roads ahead.
?
The Chiefs’ Kingdom is still powerful
Before anyone reaches for the panic button, the computer gives a considerable 87% chance to the Chiefs to get to the playoffs and a 48% possibility to obtain the AFC West title. Almost nothing.
In other words, the model anticipates Mahomes to take his team into the playoffs but it also anticipates the possible missteps there.
Those “triple failures” are not catastrophes as such. They are just ‘yellow lights‘, warning flags that indicate the road to another Super Bowl ring will possibly contain some unexpected bumps.
Why the NYT model is making headlines
The New York Times football simulation is now a mid-season playoff opportunity go-to information source. It simulates thousands of outcomes using team performance, the schedule ahead, point spreads, and even injury reports.
EssentiallySports‘ reporting of these projections created controversy on social media, particularly among Chiefs fans. Some interpreted it as “clickbait disrespect” to Mahomes, while others admitted the Chiefs’ early inconsistency, in particular on offense, which has been evident this season.
However, the vast majority of analysts agree: if there is a quarterback who can outsmart computer algorithms, it is the one and only Patrick Mahomes.
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