The matchup for the 2025 NBA Finals is officially locked in, and with Game 1 set for tonight, sportsbooks have already made their predictions.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, the NBA’s top regular-season team, are the strong betting favorites to win it all over the underdog Indiana Pacers. The Thunder finished the regular season with a dominant 68-14 record, claiming the No. 1 seed in the West.
That success carried into the postseason, where they defeated the Memphis Grizzlies in the opening round, outlasted the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a tense seven-game series, and then overcame the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals.
Led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with Jalen Williams and rookie standout Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City enters the Finals with momentum, elite defense, and what many consider the most balanced roster in the league.
Indiana, meanwhile, wasn’t on most radars when the season began. As the East’s fourth seed, they clawed their way through the playoffs, eliminating Milwaukee, stunning Cleveland, and grinding past the New York Knicks in a grueling six-game battle.
Despite those achievements, the Pacers are widely considered longshots heading into the Finals.
Can Indiana defy the odds one more time?
While Indiana may not have the flashiest names, their depth and resilience have been key to their playoff surge.
Tyrese Haliburton has played the role of floor general to perfection, while Pascal Siakam – who claimed Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors – has delivered when it mattered most.
The team’s deep bench and commitment to wearing down opponents helped them navigate one of the most competitive postseason runs in recent memory.
Still, the oddsmakers remain skeptical. According to BetMGM as of June 2, the Thunder are overwhelming favorites:
2025 NBA Finals Odds
- Oklahoma City Thunder: -400
- Indiana Pacers: +310
Most likely series outcomes
- Thunder in 5 games: +200
- Thunder in 4 games: +325
- Thunder in 6 games: +425
- Thunder in 7 games: +500
- Pacers in 6 or 7 games: +1200
- Pacers in 5 games: +3000
- Pacers in 4 games: +5000
Additionally, updated championship odds show Oklahoma City at -699 to win the title, while Indiana is priced at +500.
This Finals also marks a rarity: both franchises have reached this stage without exceeding the luxury tax threshold, the first time since 2003 that two such teams have contested for the championship. It’s a testament to their strategic roster-building and internal development.
Gilgeous-Alexander recently acknowledged the challenge ahead, noting the Pacers will be a “tough” opponent. That sentiment echoes what fans have seen all postseason – Indiana is scrappy, determined, and not afraid to upset the odds.
But with home-court advantage, elite talent, and playoff-tested poise, Oklahoma City is in pole position to secure its first NBA title since 1979, when the franchise was still known as the Seattle SuperSonics.
The first chapter of this Finals story will be written Thursday night. Whether it ends in a celebration for Oklahoma City or a historic breakthrough for Indiana remains to be seen – but the betting markets have spoken.
Full 2025 NBA Finals Schedule: Thunder vs Pacers
- Game 1: Pacers at Thunder – Thursday, June 5, 8:30 PM ET (ABC)
- Game 2: Pacers at Thunder – Sunday, June 8, 8:00 PM ET (ABC)
- Game 3: Thunder at Pacers – Wednesday, June 11, 8:30 PM ET (ABC)
- Game 4: Thunder at Pacers – Friday, June 13, 8:30 PM ET (ABC)
- Game 5: Pacers at Thunder – Monday, June 16, 8:30 PM ET (ABC) if necessary
- Game 6: Thunder at Pacers – Thursday, June 19, 8:30 PM ET (ABC) if necessary
- Game 7: Pacers at Thunder – Sunday, June 22, 8:00 PM ET (ABC) if necessary
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