Let’s Debate: Patriots or Bills? Broncos or Chargers? Who Is the AFC’s Best Team?

The Kansas City Chiefs seem set to miss the playoffs for the first time in 11 years, leaving us all to question who in the world is going to win the AFC. 

The conference that Patrick Mahomes has had a hold of for the last six seasons, and the one that Tom Brady had control for much of the 18 years before that, seems to be the most wide open it’s been in decades. Two relatively younger and unproven teams sit atop the conference standings entering Week 15 (Denver Broncos, New England Patriots), while a few playoff mainstays might have a larger say than they’ve had in recent years on who’ll represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX (Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers).

So, what should we expect in the AFC over the final weeks of the regular season and the postseason? We surveyed our NFL staff on which team they like the most from each division, and who’ll ultimately win the conference. 

The Patriots host the Bills this weekend and can win the AFC East with a victory. Would that be enough for you to favor New England over Buffalo in the postseason, or would you still trust the Bills more than the Patriots come January?

Greg Auman: So much of this year’s AFC playoffs will be young QBs vs. proven QBs — can the Patriots and Drake Maye’s inexperience overcome Josh Allen having played in 13 playoff games? I think New England’s defense is a top-five unit, and that’s enough to overcome Buffalo’s comfort level having played multiple playoff games five years in a row.

Ralph Vacchiano: There is no question that I would trust the Bills more than the Patriots. I like the Patriots a lot. Mike Vrabel is a better coach than Sean McDermott and I think Drake Maye is going to be a star. But trust them? It’s hard to do when they have played one of the softest schedules I’ve ever seen. I know they can’t do anything that, of course, but it does mean they are untested — and that would scare me heading into the postseason. 

The Bills are flawed, but Josh Allen has led them to the playoffs six straight seasons. They’ve won at least one game in five straight years. I know they’ll have to go on the road this time, and that’s different. They are 0-4 on the road in the playoffs in the Allen era (though three of those losses were in Kansas City). But in the playoffs, it’s hard to beat experience. And the Patriots will go into the postseason with almost no big-game experience at all.

Ben Arthur: I’d still trust the Bills more. They have reigning MVP Josh Allen, one of the great quarterbacks of this era, and players around him who are used to playing in the postseason. Buffalo has made the playoffs six consecutive years. And it must be licking its chops looking at the prospective playoff field for this year. There’s a good chance of no Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow. Allen may not have a better chance of getting to the Super Bowl than this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bills meet the moment. The Patriots have been outstanding this season and are well-coached, but we haven’t seen Drake Maye in the playoffs yet. So I’m rolling with the team (and quarterback) I know can show up in January. 

Henry McKenna: Josh Allen has a long track record of making just the right number of plays necessary for a win. It’s no coincidence. It’s a skill he’s honed in his eight years in the league. Drake Maye doesn’t have as much experience with those late-game situations. So no matter what happens on Sunday, the Bills will still be the more trustworthy bet in the postseason. Now that doesn’t mean Maye can’t begin to build his résumé — and develop experience — with pressure situations against the AFC’s elite. If he wins on Sunday, he and the Patriots can build their confidence for the playoffs. But I’m picking the Bills to make the Super Bowl. 

Eric D. Williams: Maye has been impressive, and the Patriots look like a different team in just one season under Vrabel. But New England has played one of the easiest schedules in the league. The playoffs are about experience, along with having a dynamic quarterback who doesn’t wilt under pressure and can close out games. For me, that’s Josh Allen, which puts the Bills in an advantageous position, even having to go on the road in the playoffs. Elite AFC QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are likely to miss the postseason this season, which means it’s Allen’s time.

In the AFC North, the Steelers have a slight edge over the Ravens following last week’s win. Was that win convincing enough for you to believe that Pittsburgh is the best team going forward in that division?

Auman: It is, but that’s not saying that much. The Steelers are easily the wobbliest AFC division winner — they’ve been outscored by their opponents this season and are only 4-3 at home, so even the advantage of hosting a wild-card game is lost on them. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played a playoff game in four years and hasn’t won one in five. They could be a home underdog against the Bills or Chargers in the playoffs.  

Vacchiano: Honestly, I think the Bengals might be the best team in that division now that Joe Burrow is back, but I get that their season is basically over. I think the Steelers will probably win the division because the Ravens’ schedule is just brutal down the stretch. But I still think the Ravens are the better team. Unfortunately, they have probably been the most underachieving team in the NFL all season. Lamar Jackson looks like a shell of himself, especially since coming back from injury, and that’s a big part of it. But I think if he could shake out of his funk, the Ravens are better and deeper than a Steelers team with a weak defense, no running game, and a 42-year-old quarterback held together by duct tape. It’s just probably too late to find out if I’m right about that.

Arthur: The Steelers managed to close out the Ravens in Week 14, but they’ve given up over 200 rushing yards in back-to-back games. That’s not a recipe to win late in the season. Pittsburgh’s passing game has also been consistent. It’s been an underwhelming, injury-riddled season for Lamar Jackson, but I feel like he’s due for some big games down the stretch. Against the Steelers on Sunday, he had his first multi-touchdown game since Week 9. If the two-time MVP can heat up (and remain healthy), Baltimore can take the division.

McKenna: Ralph made the correct point, which is that the Bengals are the best team. It’s just they won’t make the playoffs. But if the question is who will make the playoffs, then it’s the Steelers. The Ravens aren’t the Ravens that we are accustomed to seeing, with Lamar Jackson’s mounting injury tally and an astonishingly undisciplined roster. Over the last few weeks, Aaron Rodgers is quietly playing well, even if no one wants to admit it. The defense isn’t consistent, but it does generate the second-most takeaways in the NFL (23). I could see them surprising folks in the first round of the playoffs, in part because the AFC field is likely to be deeply unpredictable. 

Williams: It wasn’t convincing by any means, but Pittsburgh’s victory over Baltimore provided some belief that they can close out the division. Specifically, Aaron Rodgers finally looked like a quarterback destined for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, even making some plays with his feet in scoring a rushing touchdown. The Steelers are still driven by how well the defense plays, but Rodgers playing to his potential gives Pittsburgh a puncher’s chance to not only win the AFC North, but perhaps win a game once it reaches the postseason.

Steelers ‘didn’t silence critics’ with win, Reckless for Phillip Rivers to play for the Colts?

The AFC South race was arguably the most compelling prior to Daniel Jones’ injury. Now, it seems like a two-team race between the Jaguars and Texans. Do you like division-leading Jacksonville more than Houston, or do you think Indianapolis with Philip Rivers might have something to say?

Auman: The Jaguars are a game up and still have the Jets and Titans in their remaining four games, but there’s definitely a world where Jacksonville loses at Denver in Week 16, and the Texans win out. Then they’d both be 12-5, they’d split head-to-head, have identical 5-1 division records and the same record against common opponents. The tiebreaker for conference record would go to Houston, and it’d get the division on that. I’m going to say that’s how it shakes out – the biggest obstacle is the Texans having to win at the Chargers in Week 17. It’s hard to bet against that defense right now. 

Vacchiano: Sorry, the Philip Rivers part made me laugh. It’s a nice story, but he wasn’t exactly at the top of his game when he retired. I don’t think returning at age 44 after five years on the couch is going to suddenly restore him to his prime. So no, the Colts are done. As for the other two, I think I like Houston a little bit more. I’m surprised to hear myself say that, because I think their offense is terrible. But that defense is No. 1 in the NFL for a reason. I don’t think there is a better pass rush or secondary in the league. That can carry a team a long way — probably farther than QB Trevor Lawrence can carry the Jags. 

Tom Brady on Phillip Rivers’ return: ‘Who retires and un-retires and out of retirement?’ 😅

Arthur: The familiarity that Rivers has with Steichen and the Colts’ scheme is obviously huge, but the physical element of his return — 44 years old, a five-year layoff — appears to be too much of an uphill battle for Indy. Between the Jags and Texans, Jacksonville is the more well-rounded team, and doesn’t get the national love it deserves. But I lean heavily toward Houston. DeMeco Ryans has by far the best defense in the NFL, and I think the Texans can get enough out of C.J. Stroud and the offense to win low-scoring games. Houston doesn’t turn the ball over, for one (its 10 giveaways are fewer than all but two teams). And Stroud may not be what he was a rookie, but the Chiefs’ game was a reminder that he can come through in clutch moments. He’s also played in four playoff games. Trevor Lawrence has been in just two.

McKenna: Well gollygoshdarnit, Philip Rivers won’t do a dang thing in this division. No, the Jaguars and Texans are the only relevant teams. And for me, the Jags are better, if only because of the way Liam Coen (and Jakobi Meyers(!!??)) has the offense playing and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile has the defense playing. They are a slightly better team with a much easier schedule. But even if the Jaguars win the division, the Texans will still likely eke out that last wild-card playoff spot. 

Williams: The Texans have the best defense in the league and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. So, even though the Jaguars are a game up, I would lean toward Houston finishing on top for a third straight season in the AFC South. And I understand Ralph’s concerns with the desperate Colts turning to the retired Rivers at quarterback. However, movement wasn’t the 44-year-old’s strong suit when he played. He’ll get the Colts into the best plays pre-snap. And Rivers’ toughness has never been an issue for one of the most durable quarterbacks in league history. Yes, it’s a Hail Mary decision by Colts’ brass, but one worth taking for the players still on the roster, considering the recent state of the franchise.

Finally, the AFC West will come down to the Broncos and Chargers. Are you buying stock in either team as contenders, and if so, which do you like more? 

Auman: I think you have to take the Broncos seriously. Having a second-year quarterback is a concern, but their defense is fourth in points allowed and third in yards — they’re 6-0 at home this season, but they’re even with the Patriots for the AFC’s top seed and Denver’s final four games are daunting: Packers, Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Broncos got the second seed and the Chargers the fifth and both advanced from wild-card weekend. From there, I trust the Broncos’ defense more than the Chargers’ offense. 

Vacchiano: I can’t take the Chargers too seriously because they can’t protect quarterback Justin Herbert. He’s already got a broken hand. After watching what the Eagles did to him Monday night, I’m not going to be convinced he’ll still be around when the playoffs begin. As for the Broncos, every time I watch them, I come away thinking they are a fraud, and I wonder, “How the heck did they win that game?” Yet they keep winning. So maybe I’m underestimating them. I think Sean Payton is the best coach in the NFL. That defense is for real (and so is defensive coordinator Vance Joseph). And while I think quarterback Bo Nix is inconsistent, he does seem to have the “clutch” gene. Plus, Payton sure does know what to call to get the best out of them. I would feel better about them if they didn’t play so many one-score games (11 of 13 so far!). But they do know how to win them (9-2). That’ll come in handy, especially if the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Denver. 

Are Broncos Super Bowl bound with Sean Payton-Bo Nix duo? 🤔

Arthur: Definitely the Broncos more than the Chargers. Denver has an elite defense to depend on. And though its offense can be frustrating, Bo Nix has shown a clutch gene throughout the season and the team ranks in the top half of the league in third-down efficiency (40.6%, 12th) and redzone touchdown rate (59.1%, 13th). It’s difficult to trust the Chargers just because of how bad their pass protection is. Justin Herbert has been the most pressured quarterback by far this season (224 pressures).

McKenna: The Broncos have set up their young QB for success. The Chargers haven’t. Part of that is injuries, specifically to the L.A.’s tackles. But on the whole, Denver has built a much more complete team, from defense to special teams. Nix has helped the Broncos win a few games, but in the last few weeks, he has had the luxury of kicking back his feet and serving as a game manager, which is probably the best role for the second-year quarterback. Because it’s a weak field in the AFC, the Broncos seem like a strong contender in the same way that the San Francisco 49ers often seem like a threat. Their quarterback isn’t one of the league’s best, but that’s not really their emphasis. They can make a Super Bowl because of the other 52 guys. 

Herd Hierarchy for Week 15: Chargers rise, Bills fall, Eagles out?

Williams: I picked the Chargers to win the AFC West for the first time since 2009 at the start of the year, so I’ll stick with my pick even though the Bolts are two games back with four weeks to go. Los Angeles does hold the tiebreaker at this point because of its win over Denver earlier this year and faces the Broncos again in the final game of the regular season. Although Denver has played one of the easiest schedules in the league, give head coach Sean Payton credit for figuring out how to win close games by leaning on a strong defense and clutch play by second-year quarterback Bo Nix. The Chargers are banged up, but Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh give the Bolts a chance to win the division down the backstretch of the season. 

The Chiefs’ reign as the kings of the AFC seems set to expire in the coming weeks. With no Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow currently in the playoff field, either, the race for the conference crown seems to be as wide open as it’s been in recent years. So, which team do you like the most to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl entering Week 15?

Auman: A little outside the box here, but I think Houston could really surprise here. Their defense is the best in the NFL, and if C.J. Stroud can get a little closer to his rookie-year play and confidence, they could make a splash. The Patriots and Broncos will likely have home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs, so it comes down to which young quarterback — Maye, Nix, Stroud — can look like a playoff veteran in January. I’ll take the Texans as a late-surging surprise. 

Tom Brady says Chiefs have ‘the foundation for success’ despite season-long struggles

Vacchiano: I feel like I should say the Broncos, because they seem to have everything — a strong defense, a decent running game, a clutch QB, and the best coach. But the way they keep playing with fire worries me. I think that’s fine now, but I do wonder if all those close calls and needs for comebacks will bite them in the playoffs against really good teams. Plus, in a year this wide open, I can’t help but think the winner is going to be a wild-card team. So I’m picking the Buffalo Bills here. They have the experience, a top 10 defense, a great running back in James Cook. And really, with Patrick Mahomes out, which QB are you going to trust more in the playoffs than Josh Allen? The road won’t be easy, but they’re not going to be bothered by big games or bad weather. I think this really could be their year. Besides, can you imagine what it will be like in Western New York if, after all these years of losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs, the Bills don’t get to the Super Bowl in a year when the Chiefs aren’t standing in their way? I think those fans have been through enough the last 30 years, don’t you? 

Arthur: I’m going with the Texans. They have one of the best defenses we’ve seen in years, with All-Pro talent on all three levels. How far they go will depend on their offense, but I believe in C.J. Stroud’s talent — even if he hasn’t gotten back to the level of his rookie season — and Houston has shown progress offensively. It has scored 20-plus points in three straight games for the first time all year. 

McKenna: I think it’ll come down to the Bills or the Patriots. They have the two best quarterbacks. They have two experienced and impressive coaches. New England has the more complete team. But Josh Allen earned the “Superman” nickname for a reason. He can make up for the fact that his teams have been historically less talented than his opponents, even in the playoffs. And I like the Bills even more, given that Patrick Mahomes likely won’t stand in the way of the Bills’ Super Bowl bid. Yeah, it’s their year. Allen is going to the Super Bowl, where I suspect he’ll see the Los Angeles Rams. 

Williams: I’m sticking with the Bills here, my preseason pick to make the Super Bowl from the AFC. Again, I believe experience matters in the postseason and Buffalo has a head coach who’s been there before in Sean McDermott and Allen. With all those elite QBs out of the mix, even if the Bills don’t get homefield advantage, with Allen, they are more than capable of winning playoff games on the road. 

The following writers contributed to this story: Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).

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