It’s a new season, but bettors are expecting similar results from North Carolina, at least in college football Week 0 odds.
In the kickoff to coach Bill Belichick’s second season at UNC, the Tar Heels opened as 6.5-point underdogs vs. TCU. Now, Carolina is an unpopular 8.5-point ‘dog for Saturday’s neutral-site clash in Dublin, Ireland.
“It’s more an anti-Bill Belichick move, or maybe an anti-team move in general,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “There are not great expectations for North Carolina.”
Feazel dishes his insights on a trio of this weekend’s most notable games in the college football odds Week 0 market.
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Cold On Carolina
Belichick’s first year at North Carolina was bumpy, to say the least. The Tar Heels opened at home as a 3.5-point underdog to TCU and got waxed 48-14. Carolina ultimately went 4-8 straight up (SU) and 5-7 against the spread (ATS).
North Carolina vs. TCU odds for Saturday’s contest have been on the board since late May at Caesars, but all the number movement has come since July 31.
At that point, the Horned Frogs went from -6.5 to -7, and the line advanced to -7.5 on Aug. 6. Then Wednesday afternoon, Caesars made the jump to TCU -8.5.
“We’re seeing a bigger flood of TCU money on the spread. And then TCU moneyline on the parlays,” Feazel said, noting the Horned Frogs are -335 to just win the game, by any margin. “It’s one-way traffic on TCU, and I don’t anticipate that changing.”
While the spread is rising for Saturday’s noon ET contest, the total is falling. Caesars opened at 50.5 and on Wednesday afternoon it was down to 46.5 (Over -118). Feazel said there was sharp play on Under 48.5.
Viva Las Vegas
FOX gets in the game on Saturday, as well, with Memphis vs. UNLV in the shadow of the Las Vegas Strip, at 10 p.m. ET. Last season, both teams were at least somewhat in the discussion to represent the Group of 6 in the College Football Playoff, but late losses silenced that talk.
In mid-May, Caesars opened UNLV at -3 (-115) in college football Week 0 odds. The Rebels spent half the summer at -3.5, but from July 17 to 31, they stretched out to -4/-5/-5.5, then got to -6 a couple times.
However, over the past week, that number has moved toward Memphis, with UNLV down to -4.5.
“A little bit of resistance came in at 6,” Feazel said, noting action showing up for the visiting Tigers. “It’s still mostly UNLV, but I expect two-way action on this game.
“There’s also been early sharp action on the Under, at 58.5 and 57.5. These first games of the year will lean toward the defense.”
As of Wednesday afternoon, the total is at 56.5.
Resumption Of Hostilities
In two of the past three seasons, Stanford and Hawaii squared off early on. The Cardinal notched a 37-24 win as 2.5-point favorites in 2023-24, and the Rainbow Warriors won 23-20 as 1.5-point favorites last year, with both games in Hawaii.
This time around, Stanford is favored on home turf. But action on Hawaii has the number moving toward the Rainbow Warriors for Saturday’s 7 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Cardinal opened -4.5 and got as high as -6 at Caesars, then over the past couple days plunged as low as -3.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, Stanford was a 4-point favorite.
It seems like an innocuous game, but Feazel said Hawaii-Stanford is always a popular matchup with bettors.
“It doesn’t seem like it would draw a lot of action. But every year, it drives more and more,” he said. “There’s a lot of Hawaii money coming in on this one. That seems to be the case every year.”
If that persists the rest of the week, Caesars could be in the unusual spot of rooting for a home favorite.
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