Which teams will rise to the top of the AFC South in 2026?
With a few preseason games out of the way, I’m feeling pretty confident about a couple of wagers when it comes to this division.
Here’s what I’m backing.
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Texans’ AFC South Finish
The Texans have the best defense in football.
Their defense was first in yards averaged per game and second in points allowed. It was seventh in sack rate and second in defensive DVOA. It generated 30% of its pressures with just a four-man rush and allowed under two yards a play when pressuring.
Just wildly good numbers.
That defense should be elite again in 2026. It returns almost everyone, and it just drafted a few more defensive pieces.
Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans has been at the helm for three seasons. He’s 32-19 and helped lead the squad to a division title in 2023 and 2024 before finishing just one game outside the division title in 2025. His teams are disciplined, tough, physical and are easy to root for.
The question for the Texans is their offense and quarterback C.J. Stroud.
With a consistent C.J. Stroud, the Texans should win the AFC South in 2026 (Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images).
The offense was nothing special in 2025. It was middle of the pack in total yards but poor on third and fourth down. It couldn’t rush the ball either, with just 3.9 yards per carry — which was 29th in the league.
Stroud was up and down last season and ended with a dud in Houston’s postseason loss to the Patriots. This offseason, the Texans went about fixing the offensive line through free agency and draft additions. It should be better. David Montgomery is the new running back and the Texans receivers are mostly healthy entering the season.
So it all comes down to Stroud.
I have faith in Stroud because he’s shown plenty in his career. Even for large stretches last season, he showed glimpses of the guy we saw as a rookie in 2023. Houston returns the same offensive coordinator in Nick Caley, which gives the offense some familiarity. An improved offensive line and running game should ease the pressure for Stroud, and he doesn’t have to do much with that defense.
Just play within yourself.
In the AFC South, the Texans will have to compete with the Jaguars once again, but the Jags have the tougher schedule with those three first-place games. Houston’s roster is better.
The Colts don’t worry me. They are not as talented as the Texans and quarterback Daniel Jones is coming back off injury.
The Titans … well, they have no chance in the division.
Schwartz’s Pick: Texans to Win AFC South (+110)
Titans’ Over/Under Win Total
News out of Titans camp suggests Cam Ward is struggling (Brooke Sutton/Getty Images).
I want Cam Ward to succeed, but the vibes aren’t great at the moment. Reports out of camp are that Ward has struggled a bit.
The Tennessee offense was bad in the first preseason game, joint practices haven’t been pretty either, and there is a new offense that does display some red flags.
However, I like the Titans’ running game and the draft pick of Carnell Tate to help Ward.
You’d have to believe the Titans’ defense will improve with Robert Salah in charge. However, I’m not sure that this group is an overly-talented unit.
Looking at the Tennessee schedule makes me love the Under even more. There are just not a ton of winnable games for this team as it stands right now. Jets, Browns and Raiders stand out as winnable games.
That’s about it.
So the Titans would need to win those games and then four more. I just don’t see it.
Schwartz’s Pick: Titans Under 6.5 Wins (-115)
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