Week 0 is actually a hero — because it means college football is back.
Here are my best bets for the first official weekend of the 2026 college football season.
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SJSU @ No. 14 USC
There’s nothing that Lincoln Riley and USC love more than beating up on Group of Six opponents to start the season.
Since Riley arrived in Southern California, the Trojans have faced a Group of Six opponent seven times in the first two weeks of the season. They’ve scored at least 44 points in all seven of those games, with five of them in the 50s or 60s.
The key to their scoring success in these games is how they finish. In the fourth quarter of all seven games, USC has scored at least seven points, but most often it’s 14+ points. Last season against Missouri State, it was 73, with 17 coming in the fourth quarter. Against Georgia Southern the next week, the Trojans scored 59, capped off by two fourth-quarter touchdowns.
USC isn’t running the score up. That’s not something that happens in 2026 all that often. It’s just that the Trojans continue to run their offense with either the tail end of the starters or the backups. The Trojan offense is difficult to stop when your starting defense is playing, and now imagine the San Jose State backups playing against all these highly rated and skilled offensive superstars?
USC returns nearly its entire offensive line, its quarterback and a two-headed monster at running back. They are breaking in some new receivers, so I could see Riley wanting to throw the ball all game to get game reps.
San Jose State’s defense is entering another rebuild after a poor 2025 season. SJSU fired it defensive coordinator near the end of last season and promoted Bojay Filimoeatu to the position. Filimoeatu’s defense only returned 23% production, which is near the bottom of the sport.
The Spartans’ defensive line should be improved, but the linebackers are identified as a weak link. SJSU lost its three leading tacklers, and this new group is going to struggle against the USC rushing attack. The Spartans are also replacing six players in the secondary.
It’s going to be a long day for San Jose State’s defense.
Schwartz’s Pick: USC Team Total Over 48.5 Points
NC State @ Virginia
This was originally a non-conference neutral-site game in Brazil before the plug was pulled on that idea. It reverted to a conference game in Virginia, as the conference expanded to nine conference tilts.
NC State is one of my sleeper teams this season, and I believe it is good enough to end up in Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game. The Wolfpack have won at least eight games in five of the last six seasons. They know how to win and now have the quarterback and presumed defensive health to grab more games this season.
Quarterback CJ Bailey is coming back after his first season as the starting quarterback. His second half was outstanding after an up-and-down start to the season. Bailey would have been highly coveted if he entered the portal, but he ultimately ended up staying in Raleigh. Running back Duke Scott returns with his 5.6 yards per carry in 2025. The skill position room lost some production, but NC State will look to find a star from that group. The portal and injuries crushed the defense in 2025. However, NC State is hopeful its portal additions can be helpful.
That is a real question mark for this team.
Virginia enters 2026 fresh off an ACC title game appearance, but it is replacing its quarterback, both top running backs and its top three receivers. The offensive line appears to be generally in a good place. Virginia went into the portal to grab starting quarterback Bo Pribula, who’s on his third team in his young career. The Cavs also went to the portal to address the other offensive positions. Virginia’s defense returns its linebacker corps but sees replacements on the defensive line and secondary.
These teams are strikingly close in talent, but NC State has the better quarterback, which is the tiebreaker in a game with two evenly matched teams.
Schwartz’s Pick: NC State (+4.5) to Lose by Fewer Than 4.5 Points or Win Outright
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