2026 College Football Odds: Back Gophers Over Win Total; Fade Sparty

For the third straight summer, I’ve attended Big Ten Media Days. 

The three-day event features all 18 Big Ten teams split over three days. A coach, three players and support staff from every team spend the day talking to the media about the upcoming season. 

I get the opportunity to interview every coach and all 54 players for radio. These conversations are insightful and after doing this long enough, you can read which coaches feel comfortable about their team and which do not. 

From that, I make wagers accordingly and there are two win totals I wagered on after finishing my work in Chicago.

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MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

Minnesota went 7-5 last season with a big split result between home and away contests. 

The Golden Gophers lost all five road games, which included three of their toughest opponents. They were a team that struggled on offense with first-time starter Drake Lindsey. 

Lindsey wasn’t bad himself, but while he limited turnovers, he was clearly going through the ups and downs of starting his first college season. We do not give the proper grace to first-time starters. It’s a difficult job.

Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey aims to help the Gophers eclipse their win total in 2026 (Getty Images).

Minnesota’s run game was fantastic when starting running back Darius Taylor was healthy — even if the offensive line had issues. Taylor is healthy to start this season and the offensive line should be better with more reps. There’s a lot of upside to this offense with Lindsey improving into Year 2 as a starter and with a healthy Taylor.

Minnesota might have the best defensive player the country doesn’t know about. Anthony Smith returns as an edge rusher after posting 12.5 sacks last season. Smith was part of a defense that generated a ton of negative plays, and had Minnesota fielded a functioning offense, it could have competed against the better teams for 60 minutes.

The Gophers’ schedule is a tad tougher than last season, but they do not play Oregon or Ohio State. They will start the season 3-0, and then I need them to win four of five games against Purdue, UCLA, Northwestern, Penn State and Wisconsin. 

If they’d like to upset Iowa or Michigan at home, that would help them go Over their win total.

In the end, I’m buying Lindsey taking a huge jump in Year 2, the Gophers’ defense continuing to play well and a coaching staff that’s confident in their team.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

It’s going to be a rough season for new Spartans head coach Pat Fitzgerald. 

Coach is back into college football after being fired by Northwestern before the 2023 season. The football world is excited to welcome him back and the Spartan faithful hope he can bring winning to the program. 

However, I have my doubts that’s possible, and I know it won’t happen this season.

If you ask most about Fitzgerald’s time at Northwestern, they will remember it fondly for the unprecedented success the program had. While that’s true, it’s also fair to point out Northwestern was in a big downturn when he was fired, going 4-20 in his last two seasons.

Will new Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald turn the Spartans around in his first year? (Getty Images)

College football has turned into an arms race, where the only way to win with any consistency is having the most talent money can buy. Teams are searching for talent everywhere and when a coach takes a new job, they often bring their most talented players to that new job. 

Curt Cignetti at Indiana just proved how valuable that can be. 

Pat Fitzgerald had no one to bring with him because he was out of the game for too long. So he’s starting all over with his roster. He’s also going to be developing talent through a high school type of coaching, which means his portal players won’t be as impactful as others. 

Plain and simple, the Spartans’ roster just isn’t good enough to win many games this season. 

MSU has possibly two wins against Toledo and Eastern Michigan to start the season and then two other 50-50 games on the schedule. It hosts Northwestern and then plays Rutgers. It would need to win both of those and then get an upset. 

I just don’t see it.