2025 NFL QB Power Rankings Week 12: Does Sam Darnold Have a Big-Game Complex?

It’s not every week that Bryce Young leads the NFL in passing yards. Or, for that matter, that Jacoby Brissett sets the all-time record for completions. But it’s Week 11 and things are starting to get weird. Let’s lean into the unusual performances — the ones where the stats belie what’s actually happening. Let’s dive beneath the surface-level box scores.

In these QB rankings, I’m focused on monitoring the fluctuations of a quarterback’s performance throughout the season. No one — not even Matthew Stafford — is safe at the top. No one — not even Justin Fields — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds most important: What have you done for your team lately?

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In his past three games, Love has averaged 207.7 passing yards, 0.6 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions while completing 60.8% of his throws. Over that span, coach Matt LaFleur fielded a question about whether he feels he’s playing for his job. Over that span, the Packers are 1-2.

Over that span, I remain rooted in my belief that Love is among the NFL’s best quarterbacks.

He is a microcosm of counting stats versus advanced stats. Because as ugly as those numbers are above, he sits tied atop the NFL in EPA/play (alongside Drake Maye). I’m not saying the Packers are going to make the deep playoff run that many expected following the Micah Parsons trade. I’m just saying that Love is a major part of why they’re still winning games.

This isn’t the guy who was missing easy throws like he did last year. His incompletions are, on occasion, more impressive than most middling QB’s completions. Watch the game. Not the box score. You’ll have a great time watching Love.

He completed 37.8% of his passes for … 255 yards?

There are a lot of parts about this game that feel inexplicable — and hard to reconcile in terms of analyzing where the Lions go from here. But let’s start with a few truths from this game:

1. Goff looked hurried on the vast majority of his dropbacks and it had catastrophic results. Against pressure, the Lions QB was 1 of 14 for a 40-yard touchdown, per Next Gen Stats. He had a completion percentage over expected of -33.6% (against pressure).
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams each had at least one drop that ended drives.
3. Cooper DeJean did a very, very nice job in coverage against St. Brown.
4. The Eagles’ defensive line batted five passes at the line of scrimmage.
5. The weather was cold and blustery, which are notoriously difficult conditions for Goff.

So … now what?

There are elements of this game that the Lions can address — and then turn into an outlier. The Eagles seemed to get unsustainably lucky (with all the tipped passes) and the Lions got unlucky (with drops).

There was one element they cannot chalk up as an outlier: Goff’s issue with pressure is a common theme this year. And frankly, every year.

It’s one thing for a quarterback to struggle under pressure. Patrick Mahomes does. Tom Brady did. Every QB does. It’s another thing for that pressure to single-handedly take down the offense. That’s what happened Sunday night for the Lions.

This year is worse than other years for Goff.

In 2025, Goff has completed 45.8% of his passes (44/96) against pressure. His completion percentage over expected is -5.1%, his EPA per dropback is -.48 and his success percentage is 31.1%. Those are all career lows against pressure. To make matters worse, the Lions are surrendering pressure on 35.5% of Goff’s dropbacks, the second-highest rate of his Detroit tenure. More or less, there’s more pressure than ever and he’s handling it worse than ever.

It will be on head coach Dan Campbell — who’s doubling as the offensive playcaller — to figure out how to 1) help his OL prevent pressure and then 2) help Goff handle that pressure more comfortably. 

Because it might just be the Lions offense’s single biggest problem.

What quarterback controversy?

Purdy did what Purdy is supposed to do — feed his playmakers. No turnovers. Three touchdowns. And a completion percentage over expected of +7%. 

Squeaky clean efficiency — so clean that there might not be any mention of Mac Jones until the offseason, when he’ll inevitably get entrenched in trade rumors.

For the first time in what feels like forever, Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are healthy at the same time. So is Ricky Pearsall. We’re just waiting for Brandon Aiyuk — but don’t hold your breath (and it probably won’t matter that much). Purdy looked like the quick-thinking, quick-moving point guard that the 49ers have needed. That’s not even the best news. The best news is that, even without him for the bulk of the season, they’re 7-4 and have an 87% chance of making the postseason, per the New York Times simulator. 

The pressure is off Purdy. The team is healthy. (And both things are important because the pressure to carry the team proved too much for Purdy last year.) 

Things are actually looking up for San Francisco. At this time last year, I wondered if the 49ers’ championship window was closing. At this time last year, people wondered if coach Kyle Shanahan and/or GM John Lynch might end up somewhere else in 2027, whether by trade or otherwise. (And then Purdy would probably get displaced, too.)

Nope. Not happening.

This isn’t to say it’s going to be all roses and the 49ers are going to win the Super Bowl. But it’s refreshing to see the 49ers’ best players healthy and playing together. We’ll perhaps see what this 2025 club is really made of in the final three weeks of the season, when the Niners close out at Indianapolis, and then at home versus the Bears and the Seahawks. We’ll know then whether they can make a deep run in the NFC.

Yes, this does happen every year.

Darnold is the king of meltdown games. Even as he has grown into a reliable NFL starter, he has not shaken his once-a-year propensity to put up a catastrophic performance. He has three four-interception games in his career and six three-interception games. The only season when he has not thrown three or more interceptions in a single game was in 2023 (backup in San Francisco) and 2022 (initially a backup, only to start six games in Carolina).

But this wasn’t just a Darnold-will-be-Darnold game.

He fell right into the Rams’ plan to trigger the meltdown. Darnold and Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula have the type of relationship that Bill Belichick once had with Darnold. (Remember when Darnold infamously admitted to “seeing ghosts”?) Shula isn’t playing cat and mouse with Darnold — they’re playing predator and prey, with the DC operating one step ahead of the QB. 

The last time they squared off, Darnold took nine sacks in the Vikings’ playoff defeat to the Rams. It was clear Darnold’s priority this past Sunday was not to take all those sacks. Whether or not Shula knew that at the beginning, he and his defenders figured it out quickly. They did not blitz Darnold, instead forcing him to process the movements of the seven defensive backs in coverage — but with that ticking clock in the back of his head. 

You could almost hear Darnold wondering: How long until Jared Verse gets home?

“The rush contains him, and he wants to get rid of the ball, and he’s flinching up,” Rams safety Kam Kinchens said, via The Athletic. “He don’t want to get sacked. He’s just trying to get the ball out of his hands, so that’s when I knew there was an opportunity.”

Ironically, it would’ve been better if Darnold had just taken the sacks. Because all four of his turnovers were his fault and if he’d taken those sacks, the Seahawks probably would’ve won because of better field position.

OK, now I’m about to head into left field, so bear with me. There’s a saying about World War II, which was that the Allies struggled at the outset because they were fighting the last war (World War I). They expected the Germans to arrive with the same plan of war. The Germans had new plans. Football is not war. But hopefully, you see my point: You can’t win your next game by simply fixing the mistakes of your previous one.

Darnold cannot expect Shula to return with the same plan, if these two teams see each other again. Darnold won’t rectify his problems by taking the sacks. He and OC Klint Kubiak need to play catch-up with a Rams defense that’s multiple steps ahead.

Best quote of the year goes to … Adam Trautman. Tight end. Broncos.

“First off, if you’re talking s— about Bo online, you’re a coward. Absolute coward. But – I just want to say that, and guard him a little bit,” Trautman told reporters this past Sunday. “He blanks it out, and we talked about it this week. We don’t care what other people think. We know what we have in the building, and we know what he’s made of, and we don’t really care what people have to say. So, DragonSlayer69, with the 7-Eleven Slurpee in his mom’s basement, I don’t give a s— what he has to say, right? And Bo doesn’t either.”

Perfect. That means I — DragonSlayer69 — am now free to evaluate Nix. But it’s too bad he and Trautman aren’t reading (even though… they must be reading if they know people are criticizing). But I digress.

Nix is a system quarterback. He is only as good as his playcaller. And about halfway through the third quarter, coach Sean Payton figured out how to maximize his quarterback and, in turn, his offense. The key was clear: abandon all intermediate passing.

Payton dialed up plays to allow Nix to uncork downfield passes. Payton dialed up receiver, running back and tight end screens. He stopped asking Nix to throw into the teeth of the defense. Because the Chiefs’ defense was too good in the middle of the field.

But guess what? It worked. Nix attacked downfield and got chunk plays. His pass-catchers kept the offense on schedule with YAC off screens. And the Broncos’ defense held up its end of the bargain. So Denver beat the Chiefs and took control of the AFC West.

It must’ve been hard for Nix to wait and let the game come to him. But eventually, it did. He seized his opportunities.

The great part about Young’s performance was how much help he got. That’s been the systemic problem in Carolina, with no supporting cast from coach to receivers to offensive line. That’s how Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold cruised through the organization without realizing their potential. That’s how Young could easily exit the organization without ever realizing his.

But we saw him throw for 448 passing yards and three touchdowns largely off the merits of others. Young looked like what I originally thought J.J. McCarthy would look like — a young, smaller point-guard passer whose supporting cast elevates him.

Young made a few high-difficulty throws, whether it was the tight-window throw rolling left and zipping it into the hands of Xavier Legette — or the pinpoint deep ball to Legette for a touchdown. 

But in all, Young attempted tight-window throws on just 11% of his passes, the fourth-lowest number of the season, per Next Gen Stats. He also had a receiver wide open on 31.1% of his passes, the second highest of the season.

Yes, Young played well. But most importantly, coach Dave Canales schemed up a game plan that sprung Legette, Tetairoa McMillan, Rico Dowdle and even tight end Tommy Tremble to big games.

This type of performance is huge for Young, who is playing for his job in 2026. It’s not new, per se. We’ve seen him have a steady hand for one-game spurts — and even eight-game runs (looking at the second half of last year). What we haven’t seen is a greater body of consistent work for a whole season. He won’t put up these kinds of numbers every week, obviously, but this is the style of play that he needs to demonstrate through the season and, perhaps, into the playoffs.

Or someone else will be the Panthers’ QB next year.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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