2025 MLB Contender Rankings: Who On These 20 Teams Needs to Step Up?

How many MLB fanbases are feeling optimistic about their team’s October chances right now? 

There are now 20 teams either currently in playoff position or within five games of a playoff spot. That means more teams join our list of contenders this week, as the Rays, Diamondbacks and Cardinals have joined the ranks.

All of them could use a little more down the stretch from some struggling mainstays. In this week’s contender rankings, we’ll include one person (or group of people) from each team who needs to step up over the next few weeks. 

Even after dropping a series to the Phillies last week, this remains the clear top team in baseball, at least six wins better than every other club in the league. Still, there’s at least some lingering concern in a bullpen that’s missing a number of key pieces, from closer Trevor Megill to Shelby Miller, DL Hall, Nick Mears, Grant Anderson and now Nick Mears. The Brewers tend to figure this stuff out, and many of those players are expected back before the postseason, but getting Jacob Misiorowski to look more consistently like he did Sunday with seven innings of one-run ball in Pittsburgh would be a huge boost to the pitching staff, whether he stays in the rotation or ends up in the bullpen in October. 

The Phillies have now won six of their last seven series, with the lone exception being the time they were swept by the Mets team that’s chasing them. With Zack Wheeler out for the year, their heavy left-handed rotation could really benefit from Aaron Nola (6.78 ERA) finding his form down the stretch.  

The Blue Jays had a lot of unsung heroes step up in the bullpen during their magnificent march to the top of the AL East, but that unit is not exactly inspiring confidence lately. Since the All-Star break, the Blue Jays bullpen ranks 28th in MLB with an ERA well over 5.00. On that note, getting Jeff Hoffman right will be important. He has a 4.77 ERA on the year and really struggled at the end of August, but the club’s prized offseason relief addition has looked a lot better in three appearances to start the month. 

They’re 4-9 in their last 13 games and got swept by the A’s and lost a series to the White Sox in that stretch. There’s also pitching chaos behind ace Tarik Skubal again. Over the last 30 days, their starters have a 4.90 ERA — a number that would be far worse if not for Skubal’s 1.04 mark in that time. Every other Detroit starter who has made multiple starts in the last month has an ERA over 5.00. Another reliable starter or two needs to separate. 

It was a huge week for the Yankees, who won series against the Astros and Blue Jays. Another big one awaits against the first-place Tigers and a Red Sox team that has had their number all year. After that, the rest of the season is a cakewalk. There are still things they are trying to get right, though, beyond Aaron Judge’s elbow. Anthony Volpe has the lowest on-base percentage of any qualified hitter in MLB since the break, while Devin Williams is still trying to demonstrate he can be a high-leverage option come October. After looking better at the end of August, he had another blow-up outing last week in Houston. 

Since the start of August, the Cubs’ once-electric offense is 27th in OPS. There are a lot of reasons for that — Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch have both regressed to a troubling degree in the second half — but most importantly, they have to get Pete Crow-Armstrong looking closer to the superstar he was for much of the year. He’s already a 6-WAR player, but he hit .160 with a .446 OPS in August. The first week of September was more encouraging. 

The Dodgers’ months-long malaise reached its nadir this weekend when Yoshinobu Yamamoto came one out away from a no-hitter in a game the Dodgers ultimately lost. They went 1-5 on a road trip to last-place Pittsburgh and last-place Baltimore. The offense has been volatile. The back end of the bullpen has been a mess. For those reasons, the Dodgers need more from both Teoscar Hernández, who’s now hitting below league average on the year after going 7-for-49 with two extra-base hits over his last 14 games, and Tanner Scott, who has an ERA over 8.00 with more blown saves than converted ones since the start of July. 

Boston has a 93.4% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs, despite still sitting in third place in the AL East. The Red Sox comfortably hold a wild-card spot and are just 3.5 games back of the division lead, but with Roman Anthony on the shelf, they could use a spark at the top of the lineup. Namely, they could use more of the first-half version of Alex Bregman, who has just eight extra-base hits in 34 games since the start of August. 

They were swept by the Orioles and at one point had lost five straight games and nine of 11, but they at least ended the week on a high note taking a series in Colorado. Despite squandering a golden opportunity to take back the lead in the NL West, it’s still there for the taking. To overtake the Dodgers for good, they need someone in the rotation to step up. Over the last two weeks, their starting pitchers have a 5.90 ERA, and that’s after Dylan Cease allowed one run in five innings on Sunday. That’s a step in the right direction for Cease, who entered the start with an ERA a tick over 7.00 over his previous four outings. 

They lost both series last week to the Yankees and Rangers and have dropped six of their last nine games, though they still hold a slim margin in the division. If they’re going to hold off the Mariners and Rangers, who are both now within four games of them, they’ll need Jose Altuve — who’s slashing .158/.231/.295 since Aug. 12 — to get going. The return of Yordan Alvarez has been huge, but the Astros have a bottom 10 offense over the last month, and the bullpen has also felt the effects of losing Josh Hader. 

After taking a series in Detroit, the Mets failed to ride that wave into Cincinnati against the scuffling Reds. They’ve been unable to sustain any momentum since sweeping the Angels and Giants at the end of July, going 14-23 since then despite impressive series wins against the Phillies and Tigers during that stretch. For a likely playoff team, their October rotation right now is anyone’s guess. Nolan McLean has been sensational, but the Mets will need some veteran starters to step up. One of Sean Manaea, who has a 5.60 ERA, or Kodai Senga, who was optioned last week, probably needs to get right before season’s end.

This has not been the rotation everyone expected to see. In fact, it has been one of the worst in the American League over the last month. Prior to allowing one run in six innings Sunday, Luis Castillo had an ERA over 10.00 in his previous four starts. George Kirby has an ERA over 4.00 on the year, and Bryce Miller has an ERA over 5.00. Injuries have played a role, but the Mariners, who had lost six of seven games before taking the series in Atlanta this weekend, need to find some starting pitching stability behind Bryan Woo and Logan Gilbert. 

Perhaps no team embodies the strangeness of this season more than the Rangers. A series win this weekend against the first-place Astros kept this volatile, depleted, confusing club right in the mix. They’re four games back in the division and only 1.5 games back of the final wild-card spot, despite playing without Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Evan Carter and Nathan Eovaldi, among a cavalcade of injuries. Considering all of that, it’s hard to nitpick those who are currently keeping this train chugging. Both the lineup and rotation have performed admirably considering the circumstances, but the bullpen has been shaky over the last 30 days (5.34 ERA). Shawn Armstrong, Robert Garcia and Jacob Webb have all looked great lately, but the Rangers could use more from their relief arms beyond that trio. 

Going 3-3 against the Angels and Twins wasn’t exactly the springboard the Royals probably hoped last week could have provided, but they’re only two games back of a wild-card spot. The offense already lacks the firepower of most playoff contenders, so it can’t afford Salvador Perez to be mired in this funk much longer. He’s hitting .175 with a .605 OPS since Aug. 8. 

They’re basically neck-and-neck in with the Royals in both the actual standings and these rankings. The battle of “who’s the second-best team in the AL Central” might have a winner soon, though, with a four-game series on tap between the two clubs, who are both within three games of a wild-card spot. Cleveland employs the worst offense in the American League this year, and that isn’t likely to change meaningfully. The pitching, then, needs to be pristine; but it hasn’t been. Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi all have ERAs over 5.00 in the second half, so the Guardians will need more from that trio.  

For much of the year, the Giants’ pitching staff has guided their path. Instead, it’s been the offense leading their recent charge. Since the All-Star break, the San Francisco rotation has a 4.98 ERA. Robbie Ray was a deserving All-Star this year, but he has a 4.89 ERA in the second half. 

Since the start of August, the only teams with more wins than the Diamondbacks are the Brewers and Phillies. Even after trading away Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor at the deadline, it has to be the offense guiding the path forward. For that reason, a step forward from 23-year-old Jordan Lawlar would go a long way. 

The Reds had lost 11 of 14 games before taking the final two of the weekend to capture the series against the Mets team they’re chasing for a wild-card spot. Still, it’s an uphill battle. FanGraphs gives them a 4% chance to make the playoffs. If they’re going to make a run, Elly De La Cruz — who has a .639 OPS in the second half — has to get hot. 

The Rays had won seven straight games and moved within two games of a wild-card spot before dropping three straight to finish their four-game set against the Guardians. Shane Baz has been better lately — he has a 2.65 ERA over his last three games after posting a 9.32 ERA over his previous five outings — and the Rays will need more of that from the talented right-hander with Shane McClanahan out for the year. 

You might have missed it, but the Cardinals are suddenly .500 again and only 4.5 games out of a wild-card spot after winning three straight series against the Reds, A’s and Giants. St. Louis is crawling its way back toward contention despite an offense that has an NL-worst .639 OPS over the last 30 days. That can be attributed in large part to injuries, with Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson all on the shelf, though all are expected back at some point this month. If the Cardinals are to make a surprise run, it will likely be with that returning trio providing a spark. Until then, they could use more at the plate from Masyn Winn, who’s hitting .203 with six extra-base hits since the start of August. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.

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