After a thrilling regular season and heightened drama in the conference playoffs, the Super Bowl LIX matchup is set — and it will be a familiar showdown taking place in the NFL‘s annual championship game, two Sundays from now.

The AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs are seeking to become the first team in league history to win three consecutive Super Bowl titles. Not since 2002 has any team in one of the United States‘ four major sporting leagues (the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL) won its league’s championship for three seasons in a row, a streak that many believe Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are set to end…

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…unless Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles have anything to say about it. The Eagles have reached the Super Bowl for the second time in three years (and the third time in eight years). Philadelphia is out to avenge its loss to Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII, in which Mahomes led the Chiefs back from a 10-point halftime deficit to win, 38-35, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. With so much at stake, what can past Super Bowl results tell us about which team will emerge victorious this time around?

A trend in New Orleans

Super Bowl LIX marks the 11th time the NFL has hosted its showpiece game in New Orleans, at the Caesars Superdome in the city’s central business district. The previous 10 meetings have been split evenly between AFC and NFC teams, meaning one of the Eagles or the Chiefs will tilt that split back in one conference’s favor.

However, the past two Super Bowls in New Orleans — XXXVI (36) in 2002 and XLVII (47) in 2013 — have not only been decided by a combined six points; they have been won by AFC teams. Not since 2017 has one conference won three successive Super Bowls; the Denver Broncos or the New England Patriots, both AFC representatives, won the three Super Bowls contested between the 2014 and 2016 seasons. The last NFC team to win a Super Bowl based in New Orleans were the Green Bay Packers, who defeated the Patriots to conclude the 1996 NFL season.

The Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers have won six Super Bowls each, meaning both franchises are tied for the NFL record. If the Chiefs win in two weeks’ time, Kansas City will become only the fifth organization to win the Super Bowl at least five times; only the Patriots (with 11 appearances) and the Steelers (eight appearances) will have played in more Super Bowls than the Chiefs when the ball is kicked off on Feb. 9.

The Eagles won Super Bowl LII following the 2017 season, their only modern-era NFL championship to date. Philly has played in a New Orleans-based Super Bowl before, but that game — Super Bowl XV following the 1980 season — was a loss, a 27-10 humbling against the Oakland (now Las Vegas) Raiders. That history may add more fuel to the Chiefs’ fire, as Kansas City’s three-peat hopes now hinge on securing just one more win.

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