Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza are 'top tier' in crop of Belmont Stakes horses

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The 2025 Belmont Stakes — the third and final leg of the Triple Crown — takes place Saturday at Saratoga Race Course and FOX has you covered.

Our television coverage begins at 4 p.m. ET, and yours truly and Geoff Schwartz will handle digital duties all afternoon on the Bear Bets social platforms.

See you there.

Due to construction at Belmont Park, this year’s Belmont is being held at Saratoga. It’ll be run at 1 ¼ miles instead of the traditional mile and a half.

Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty is back in the mix, as is third-place Derby finisher Baeza to form a three-headed monster with Preakness winner Journalism. Those three horses are the undoubted heavy hitters.

Odds to win 2025 Belmont Stakes

1. Hill Road: 10/1
2. Sovereignty: 2/1
3. Rodriguez: 6/1
4. Uncaged: 30/1
5. Crudo: 15/1
6. Baeza: 4/1
7. Journalism: 8/5
8. Heart of Honor: 30/1

As I’ve always said, I bet the horses but lean on my guys.

Handicapper Colin Sheehan from Trust the Prophets is two-for-two in this year’s Triple Crown after nailing Sovereignty at Churchill Downs and Journalism at Pimlico.

“Heading into the Derby, I believed Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza were the top tier of this year’s crop,” Sheehan told me. “The Derby and Preakness only confirmed that. This was not the year to get cute.

“I’m not straying from the top three.”

Sheehan pointed out how the Preakness-to-Belmont turnaround is historically difficult, with Justify and American Pharoah being the only horses in recent years to run in both races and emerge victorious at the Belmont.

“For that reason, I’m fading Journalism,” Sheehan continued.

“I’m sticking with my Derby pick, Sovereignty. He’s been flawless this year under Junior Alvarado, and it’s telling that his Hall of Fame trainer stuck to the plan of skipping the Preakness despite the Triple Crown temptation.

“Sovereignty is back on his home track and looks fantastic. He eats up ground in the stretch like no other and, for my money, he remains the best 3-year-old horse in the country. He should be right there.”

Elsewhere, Florida-based handicapper Kirk Rockwell eyes speed.

“Speed has been holding the last two days on Saratoga’s main track,” Rockwell told me Friday morning. “A speedy frontrunner like Rodriguez could get out front and hang on for dear life.”

As long as I’ve known Uncle Kirk, he’s zigged while others zag.

“Remember, it’s a shorter race than usual,” Rockwell added. “Rodriguez should be out front early. We’ll see if he can finish late at a price.”

So there you have it, actionable thoughts from successful horse handicappers that are all much, much smarter than I am when it comes to this stuff.

Here’s what I’m betting on Saturday:

$100 [2] Sovereignty to win
$50 [3] Rodriguez to win and place
$36 three-dollar exacta box with 1-2-3-6

Good luck, all.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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