There are 41 teams with a path to the national championship in the proposed 24-team College Football Playoff model gaining the most traction around the sport.
It’s not that Ohio State, Indiana or Texas A&M get a bye week and a home game. It’s that Florida, Oklahoma and even Wake Forest still have a path to the national title with a 24-team College Football Playoff.
While that sounds preposterous for a 3-4 team, Florida has games left against No. 5 Georgia, Mississippi State, Kentucky, No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 14 Tennessee and Florida State. If the Gators run the table, there’s still a chaotic chance they will make the CFP as one of the four best teams in the SEC or as an at-large selection, because that résumé and strength of record would be so strong.
In August, the Big Ten and others began “populating” the idea of an expanded College Football Playoff of 24 or 28 teams. The 24-team model, which seems to have the most support in private circles, would include:
- Four automatic qualifiers from each of the Power 4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC)
- Two automatic qualifiers from the Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Pac-12)
- Six at-large selections to be made by the College Football Playoff selection committee — the only selections the committee gets to make
Which begs the question: How would the 24-team CFP look if the tournament began today?
In my analysis of a 24-team format, 41 Power 4 programs — including 10 from the SEC, eight from the Big Ten, six from the Big 12, seven from the ACC, and 10 Group of 6 teams and Notre Dame — would still have a path to the postseason.
Heading into Week 10 of the season, teams that have proven themselves in conference play still have just as much opportunity to win it all as No. 1 Ohio State. That’s a huge win for the sport. It creates a more democratic system for determining the best team, with less debate and more certainty.
The scoreboard has more agency.
And fans have the best chance in the sport’s history to see their team play for — and win — a national title.
Here’s how it works:
This 24-team format features 18 automatic qualifiers
I’ve set it up to look like what you’ll read below and stand in to represent the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The top four teams from each of the Power 4 conferences, based on conference standings, automatically qualify for the CFP. The two highest-ranked Group of 6 teams — not necessarily conference champions — also receive automatic bids. The remaining six at-large spots are filled at the selection committee’s discretion.
Teams are seeded by the selection committee
As the personification of the selection committee, I am encouraged to take into account head-to-head matchups, strength of record, coaching, personnel and quality of out-of-conference play when seeding teams.
Winning a conference championship is a strong indicator for a top-seeded team.
Winning a conference title does not automatically qualify a team for a higher seed than a non-conference champion.
The 24-team playoff’s greatest strength is the addition of two rounds of home games
My top 25, which you can read here, is the basis on which these seedings are assigned.
The first two rounds of a 24-team playoff would feature two rounds of home games. The four teams that advance through the opening rounds will play their next game at a New Year’s Six Bowl in a neutral site semifinal.
Teams seeded No. 1 to No. 8 get a bye and a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 9 to No. 16 each open the tournament with a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 17 to No. 24 each must play on the road twice to advance to the neutral site quarterfinals.
I need to summarize this, because it’s the best aspect of the 24-team CFP: 16 different campuses host home playoff games.
With that, here is a look at the Week 10 24-team CFP bracket:
FIRST-ROUND BYE, SECOND-ROUND HOME GAME
1. Ohio State (7-0)
The Buckeyes are allowing 5.9 PPG through seven games, which is not only the lowest average in the FBS, but it’s also the fewest points per game the Buckeyes have allowed since 1973.
2. Indiana (8-0)
The Hoosiers are the only FBS team with two wins against AP top 10 opponents. They rank in the top four in the FBS in point differential (276), points per game (45.4), points allowed per game (10.9), and sacks (29).
3. Texas A&M (8-0)
The Aggies are the only undefeated FBS team with five games of 40-plus points. They’re also one of three unbeaten teams to have beaten multiple ranked opponents.
4. Alabama (7-1)
The Crimson Tide recorded four consecutive wins against ranked SEC opponents — a feat that has only happened twice in AP Poll history. Their eight-point comeback win over South Carolina was the team’s largest since 2021.
5. Oregon (7-1)
Oregon is one of three FBS teams to average over 40 points per game while allowing fewer than 15, along with Indiana and Texas Tech.
6. Georgia (6-1)
Kirby Smart’s team is 6-1 with a pair of top-15 wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss. Since 2021, Georgia is 59–6, the highest winning percentage of any FBS team, and won national titles in both 2021 and 2022.
7. Ole Miss (7-1)
Ole Miss ranks in the top 10 among Power 4 teams in yards per game (484.3) and big plays (85). The Rebels are also top five in scrimmage plays of 25, 30 and 40-plus yards.
8. Vanderbilt (7-1, at-large)
Vanderbilt has beaten three ranked opponents in the same season for the first time ever, with its No. 9 ranking in the AP Poll the highest since 1937. The Commodores are also one of three FBS teams with three wins over ranked opponents, along with Alabama and Miami.
FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME
9. Tennessee (6-2, at-large)
Losses to Alabama and Georgia might turn out to be losses to two teams who will play for the SEC Championship. The Vols lack a top-25 victory but might have a chance to get two in the next four games with Oklahoma and Vanderbilt left on the schedule.
10. BYU (8-0)
The Cougars are the only remaining undefeated team in the Big 12 and have the clearest path to the CFP of any team in that league, and, in this format, the Cougars would be rewarded with a home game.
11. Georgia Tech (8-0)
The highest-ranked ACC team is also the last undefeated team in the conference, and the only ranked opponent left on the Yellow Jackets’ schedule is their traditional out-of-conference rival, Georgia. Given the way the season has played out, it’s possible Georgia Tech ends the regular season with 11 wins against teams that won’t finish in the top 25 when the postseason begins.
12. Louisville (7-1)
The Cardinals’ win on the road at then-No. 2 Miami is the best win of any team in the ACC, and their only loss is to a top-25 opponent who needed double-overtime to defeat them (Virginia).
13. Miami (7-1, at-large)
The Hurricanes took a home loss to an unranked opponent while ranked No. 2 in the country. However, Louisville is now 7-1.
If Miami avoids another loss against an unranked team, the Canes will finish the regular season 11–1, with no ranked opponents remaining on their schedule as of now. The concern? Their best wins might end up being against South Florida and SMU — not exactly elite competition.
14. Notre Dame (5-2, at-large)
The Fighting Irish’s résumé took a hit when Louisville walked into Hard Rock Stadium and beat a Miami team that Notre Dame couldn’t — in the same venue. But their loss to Texas A&M doesn’t look as bad now, with the Aggies off to a 7–0 start for the first time since 1994.
Notre Dame’s best win came against USC, and it could face an undefeated Navy in two weeks. That, along with a 10-win regular season, might be enough for the Irish to slide into an at-large spot.
15. Missouri (6-2, at-large)
Losing quarterback Beau Pribula hasn’t made Missouri’s loss to Vanderbilt any easier for fans to swallow. Still, the defense and rushing attack remain strong, as shown in their single-score defeat in Week 9.
16. Texas (6-2, at-large)
For the second week in a row, the Longhorns needed a late comeback to defeat a middling SEC program in overtime. For the third straight week, an SEC team has made the mistake of kicking to Ryan Niblett, the nation’s best punt returner. He has punished Oklahoma, Kentucky and Mississippi State with explosive returns that gave Texas an advantage no other team has.
ON THE ROAD
17. Texas Tech (7-1)
at Texas
The Red Raiders were one of five undefeated teams to suffer a loss during Week 8, but they rebounded with a dominant win over Oklahoma State this past week and still have a road to the Big 12 title game and the CFP. Joey McGuire’s team is on a collision course with 8-0 BYU in Week 11. However, they are now down not one but two starting quarterbacks. Will Hammond tore his ACL, leaving Mitch Griffis as the team’s healthiest scholarship QB.
18. Memphis (7-1)
at Missouri
The Tigers look like the best team in the Group of 6, but they still have to prove it after a loss to an awful UAB team. They’ll get that chance with games against Tulane in Week 11 and Navy in Week 13, which could help them retain this spot.
19. Michigan (6-2)
at Notre Dame
The Wolverines have losses to USC and Oklahoma, but since both teams are still in contention for the CFP, Michigan’s case for an at-large spot is stronger. And there’s still Ohio State to play.
20. Cincinnati (7-1)
at Miami
Cincinnati could become the first team to reach the CFP as a G6 and P4 program if it continues its present trajectory. The Bearcats have not lost a single Big 12 game and will have an opportunity to show they’re the best team in the league before the postseason with remaining matchups against Utah and BYU.
21. Houston (7-1)
at Louisville
The Cougars assumed the spot that was occupied by Arizona State with their win over the Sun Devils this past weekend. Now, Houston could finish as the fourth-best team in the Big 12 or better. And they don’t play a team in the top three of the standings for the rest of the season.
22. Virginia (7-1)
at Georgia Tech
The Cavaliers are banking on transitive wins and a relatively soft path to end the season. Their best victory is over Louisville, and they don’t face another ranked opponent the rest of the way. That means UVA wouldn’t have to see Georgia Tech or Miami until the postseason, even if it needed overtime to defeat three of its last four opponents.
23. Navy (7-0)
at BYU
The Midshipmen are the last undefeated team in the Group of 6 conferences and could see themselves all but solidify their AQ spot with wins over North Texas in Week 10, Notre Dame in Week 11, South Florida in Week 12 and Memphis in Week 14.
24. Pitt (6-2)
After losing back-to-back games against West Virginia and Louisville in September, Pat Narduzzi’s team has quietly rattled off four straight wins, including a pair of road wins at Florida State and Syracuse. Freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel has ignited the Panthers offense, which is averaging 41.5 points per game during the team’s winning streak.
Above is how the CFP would look if the season ended today, but there will be changes and teams not included in the bracket that still have chances to earn entry into the tournament.
Teams on the bubble have taken on losses, but not enough losses for them not to crawl into the top quarter of their conference, and, with 10 or even just nine wins in the regular season, could find themselves into an automatic qualifier spot.
Every game matters. Rivalry games matter more.
No one in Columbus, Ohio, needs to be reminded that the Buckeyes haven’t won “The Game” since 2019, and a win for a Michigan team that has won eight games heading into “The Game” this season could almost certainly mean the Wolverines would be in the CFP.
Texas A&M, which hasn’t won a conference title this century or a national title since 1939, will have to stare down their arch nemesis, Texas, with what could be a spot in the SEC Championship on the line for the Aggies, and a spot in the CFP for the Longhorns.
Good, Old-Fashioned Hate. The rivalry between Georgia Tech and Georgia this year makes it conceivable that a loss to the Yellow Jackets could see the Dawgs left out of the playoff for the first time in three years.
The 24-team CFP takes on the best aspects of the November rivalry: home and away games played on campuses across the country where atmosphere, emotion and pageantry are unmatched.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.
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