Oddsmakers admit 'the NFL Draft is a weird thing to book'

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL Draft odds are proving as challenging and as volatile as ever for bookmakers.

With Thursday night’s first round approaching, the degree of difficulty remains high.

“The NFL Draft is a weird thing to book,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “It’s not like setting odds for a game. You can’t do math. It’s all information-based.”

And that information is flying around this week, most notably on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Feazel helps break down the latest on 2025 NFL Draft odds and action.

Shedeur Slipping

For quite some time, Sanders was all the rage in this NFL Draft. But Deion Sanders’ son, who months ago was the favorite to go No. 1 overall, now seems to be going the wrong way fast.

Over the past couple of weeks, the thought was that Sanders was heading to the New Orleans Saints, where he was favored to go No. 9 overall. But Monday and Tuesday brought notable changes at Caesars and elsewhere.

Georgia defensive end Mykel Williams is now the +375 favorite to go ninth overall. And Sanders is out to the +700 fifth choice to go with that pick, also trailing Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks, Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham and Penn State tight end Tyler Warren.

As of Tuesday night, Banks, Graham and Warren were all +600 at Caesars.

Sanders might still go to the Saints at No. 9, but he could also face a precipitous drop if he’s not drafted by New Orleans. Perhaps to the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 21, or maybe beyond that.

“Sanders went from being a top-three pick to possibly not being drafted in the first round,” Feazel said. “His Over/Under was 3.5 on March 29, and we initially took a very sharp bet on Under. But now he’s out to -8.5. We’re just moving on bets and information.”

It’s a steep price on Over 8.5, as well, at -600. So it would take a $600 bet to profit $100. That said, if you’re confident that Sanders goes No. 9 or later, then that bet has a 16.6% ROI. That’s probably way better than your 401k at the moment.

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Sharp Sides

Oddsmakers consistently point out that NFL Draft odds are a haven for sharp bettors. Feazel noted that in particular, professional money is gravitating toward Over/Under props – essentially, when a player is selected.

“That’s really where the sharp bettors have come in,” Feazel said, while providing an example. “Ashton Jeanty Under 9.5, which is now -450. That’s a sharp side this week. His outs are either the No. 5 or No. 6 pick.”

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the fifth pick, and the Las Vegas Raiders are No. 6. That price on the Under likely won’t attract the public betting masses; it would take a $450 bet to profit $100 (total payout $550).

But if you think Jeanty is going No. 5 to the Jags, that’s -125, meaning a $125 bet turns a $100 profit (total payout $225). Or if you think the Boise State standout is going No. 6 to the Raiders, that’s +125, meaning a $100 bet would profit $125 (total payout $225).

Regardless, Jeanty is creating liability for Caesars.

“We would like to see Jeanty drop out of the top 10. That would be good for the book,” Feazel said.

More Popular Plays

Feazel noted three other markets getting attention in NFL Draft odds, all related to pass-catchers.

“The first wide receiver market has been going back-and-forth all draft season,” Feazel said of a battle between Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan and Texas’ Matthew Golden. “It looks like it’s finally going to one side, to McMillan.” Indeed, McMillan is now the -350 favorite, with Golden the +260 second choice. No other wideout is shorter than +2500 at Caesars.
“The Cowboys to take a receiver, that’s getting a lot of attention,” Feazel said. Dallas has the 12th pick, and wideout is a -200 favorite to be that selection. And the Cowboys could well be the team which settles the McMillan/Golden debate.
“The Colts going with a tight end has gotten a lot of action, whether it’s Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland. So we’re not gonna want to see a tight end there.” Indianapolis has the 14th overall pick, and Caesars has tight end as the -115 favorite to be that choice. On the related NFL Draft prop bet of which tight end is selected first, Penn State’s Warren is the heavy -925 favorite, while Michigan’s Loveland is the +320 second choice.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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