Henry McKenna
NFL Reporter
What does the future look like for your team at the quarterback position?
It’s the most important question for any team in the NFL. And the answer comes down to a few factors. First, does the guy have talent and a track record of success? Second, what does his contract look like in terms of length and value?
I weighed those specific dynamics while attempting to tier the NFL’s starting QBs. When I struggled to contextualize one situation from another, I asked myself — if traded today — which quarterback would be worth more. But as we got further down the list of teams, I began to consider what plans might be percolating for the offseason, whether it’s in the draft, free agency or the trade market.
This isn’t necessarily a ranking from 1 to 32 (though I have ranked teams within the tiers). It’s a categorization, first and foremost.
So let’s evaluate the security each team has at their QB spot with an eye on the future.
WE HAVE THE GENERATIONAL QB
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
If you’re starting a franchise right now with any QB, it has to be Mahomes. Maybe you’re tired of him. Maybe he’s become the NFL’s villain. Maybe you saw him stink it up in the Super Bowl. And maybe you think his stats weren’t where they should’ve been in the regular season.
But if you have any growing doubts about Mahomes, you’re missing the point. He’s been to the Super Bowl in five of the past six seasons. He’s on pace to be — at worst — the second-greatest quarterback of all time. It’s crazy to think he’s hit a low point after appearing in a Super Bowl. That contextualizes how absurdly talented and accomplished Mahomes is at 29 years old.
So, I repeat: If you’re starting a franchise right now, Mahomes is your first pick.
WE HAVE A TRANSCENDENT QB
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
The Bills knew they weren’t stocking their roster in all the ways they needed. This was a rebuild-on-the-fly season. And still, Allen helped keep Buffalo in the hunt for the No. 1 seed. The Amari Cooper trade was a signal the Bills knew they didn’t do enough to help Allen in the passing game, even if that trade ultimately turned out to be a bust. Allen’s statistical regression signaled he’s willing to sacrifice individual accomplishments for the sake of winning games. He was more of a game manager than ever.
That’s a huge evolution for a 28-year-old QB who has changed so many times since entering the league. And that’s encouraging for Buffalo, which now knows that anytime it needs to ask its QB to adjust his playing style, he can do it — and remain elite.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
Jackson might be one of the most challenging QBs to game plan against (even if Mahomes is the most challenging to beat). Jackson brings different levels of explosiveness. The 28-year-old has grown into his role as a pocket passer, where he’s just as dangerous as a runner.
As a dual threat, no one in the history of the league compares to the two-time MVP. It’s just a matter of the postseason, where Jackson is 3-5 and has mightily struggled as a passer, while his elite peers (Mahomes, 17-4; Burrow, 5-2; and Allen, 7-6) have all won more and played markedly better. Still, Jackson and the Ravens are going to be a force in the AFC for a long time.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Burrow is the best pocket passer in the NFL. He’s is 5-2 in the postseason, and he’s 28-years-old. I get that he just missed the playoffs (again), but he also might’ve been the MVP if he’d snuck in (in spite of his team). We’re splitting hairs when comparing Burrow to Josh Allen to Lamar Jackson. But I like what Burrow has done not just in the regular season but also in the postseason.
The upside of a pocket passer is that he should have a longer career. The downside of a pocket passer is that he can be limited by his supporting cast in ways that elite mobile QBs can overcome. (And it’s no coincidence Burrow is fighting to preserve his supporting cast against the organization that historically opts out of spending.)
WE HAVE A POLARIZING STAR QB
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
How do you reconcile Hurts’ transcendent team success with his average individual statistics? We now know he can win a Super Bowl. He’s been in two of the last three. That’s one of the most important measurements for any QB. But some still wonder if he’ll ever be more than a game-manager.
Like Mahomes or Allen, Hurts is a mobile QB who has always managed games with precision in both the regular season and postseason, which why he sits at 13th all-time in win percentage (.697). Unlike Mahomes and Allen, Hurts has never thrown for even 3,900 yards. If you squint, you can see some overlap between Lamar’s early career and the way Hurts has started. Lamar’s stats are better, but Hurts has two Super Bowl appearances and one win. Yes, his teams have been supremely talented.
But I just love the way Hurts finds ways to win, with an impressive 56.7% success rate on rushes and 57% of those runs going for more yards over expected — all in the same area as Allen and Jackson. And similarly, he has a 48.4% success rate on passes, right in line with those other two mobile QBs. In the second half of the Super Bowl — after scoring the team’s two opening touchdowns — Nick Sirianni dialed up a kill-shot play designed to get Devonta Smith open deep. Hurts hit it for an 46-yard touchdown. That slammed the door shut.
Hurts contract is team-friendly from now until its expiration at the end of 2028. His cap hit is $21.8 million in 2025 and doesn’t get to $42 million until 2027, when QBs will be making almost double that, annually. He’s an outstanding blue-chip QB at the center of this franchise.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Can Justin Herbert figure out the right time to use his talents? There’s no doubt that we’ve seen Herbert flirt with the “transcendent” tier. He makes a healthy enough number of big-time plays. In 2021, he threw for 5,015 yards and 38 touchdowns.
But we haven’t seen that guy in a while.
To make matters worse, he had an unhealthy number of interceptions in the 2024 postseason. And you don’t pay a quarterback $52.5 million per year to simply play well in the regular season. He’s only ever made the playoffs twice and he’s lost both games. Unfortunately for Herbert, he’s in a strange space, where he isn’t putting up his career-best numbers — nor is he winning in the biggest games. For some, he might be the most overrated QB in the league. Only the eye test tells you he’s one of the best. That’s good enough to land him in this group. He has job security for the foreseeable future. And the Chargers have QB security for the foreseeable future.
The prevailing question is: Will Herbert assert himself when it counts most?
WE HAVE ONE OF THE BEST BARGAINS IN THE LEAGUE
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels
Can Daniels do that again? And again? And again? The No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft had one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent memory, especially if you count the postseason. The Commanders are hoping this is what he’s capable of doing year after year. I have to be careful about Daniels, because everyone fell in love with C.J. Stroud last year, but this year, Stroud and the Texans had issues. My infatuation with Daniels stems from his ability to finish and win games. As you can tell by now, I buy into quarterback wins as an essential stat. (I understand that’s not a popular opinion.) Daniels showed a preternatural ability as a passer, runner and winner. So you start there with him: talent.
Maybe he hasn’t proven sustained eliteness like the guys above, but he’s on a substantially better contract than the guys below. Daniels’ deal is set to land at 24th in terms of average annual value. At $9.4 million per year, that’s one-sixth of what Dak Prescott makes annually.
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud
Stroud came back down to earth in a big way this year. He looked like a star in the making at the end of his rookie season, but because of a crappy offensive line and a schematic downturn from his former OC Bobby Slowik, Stroud’s play prompted questions about whether he’s That Guy. I’m not sure. Too often, we saw Stroud’s command over games slip in the fourth quarter. A healthy Joe Mixon helped (which is no discredit to Stroud), but Nico Collins’ return didn’t provide stability for Stroud. Which made me think that Stroud, himself, wasn’t stable. This isn’t a condemnation of Stroud’s prospects. The Texans sit at eighth on this list, because of Stroud’s remaining years on his rookie deal and overall solid play.
The weird thing about the NFL is that we expect guys to grow — to get better. That’s what they’re striving to do, after all. But with Stroud, you could argue he plateaued. You could argue he regressed. And if he doesn’t get better, then his contract situation will grow fraught. Because he’ll probably get paid. But then in five years, we’ll be talking about how he doesn’t deserve $80 million per year.
Denver Broncos: Bo Nix
Statistically, you could make the case that Nix was hip-to-hip with Jayden Daniels in terms of passing prowess. Daniels was marginally better in basically every category. And he was a better runner. But this is all to say that Nix exceeded expectations after being widely considered a reach with the No. 12 pick in the 2024 draft. He didn’t get enough credit for his season, which included a postseason berth, 33 total touchdowns (29 passing, 4 rushing), 4,205 yards (3775 passing, 430 rushing) and just 12 interceptions with no fumbles. He spent five years in college at Auburn and Oregon. He wasn’t much more than a pocket passer — and seemed only prolific because of the Ducks offense.
It turned out, Sean Payton’s offense was just as conducive to Nix’s success. So, now the Broncos have a QB entering his second season with plenty of confidence. Is this the type of situation they can build on? They have plenty of runway, with Nix’s contract and fifth-year option (even if good QBs rarely get to that point in the deal, as we see in these tiers).
WILL OUR QB LIVE UP TO HIS EXTENSION?
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
Can Goff win despite his defense? Every quarterback has to live with his circumstances, but Goff feels like Burrow Lite. The Lions QB is a talented pocket passer with a growing wisdom about pre-snap and post-snap processing. Goff has a lot of answers to the test. But for all his statistical success, Goff still needs to show — without Sean McVay in his ear — he can bring his team to the Super Bowl.
At 30 years old, Goff looks to be in the middle of his prime. While it’s hard to imagine the Lions moving on from him next year, the four-year, $212 million deal he signed before last season gets less and less favorable, with a cap hit of $69.6 million in 2026. Goff has been so prolific, but will he lose some support if the Lions miss the postseason next season? That seems totally possible, given the strength of their division and the loss of both coordinators. As good as he’s been, it’s hard to get a sense of how long his runway is in Detroit.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
Love has the most upside of all the quarterbacks in this category. But this past season didn’t seem indicative of what he can do. And if it was, then the Packers might be a little concerned about inking him to the long-term deal. My issue with Love is not his lack of good plays but more his presence of bad ones. The knock on Love coming out of college was his propensity to turn the ball over. His 2023 season was special, because he seemed to cut out those bad decisions with a 1.9 interception rate. That number spiked to 2.6% this year.
Love could stand to learn a thing or two from Mahomes and Allen, who have found new heights — not by throwing more touchdowns but by offering fewer turnover-worthy plays. That’s how Love makes good on his four-year, $220-million contract. That’s how the Packers move him up into the transcendent category.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Have you heard the conspiracy theory that Jerry Jones is tanking for Arch Manning? It’s totally, totally, totally wild. So wild. There’s no way Jerry would do that. Right? *Silence* Wait … there is no way, right? *More silence* Oh goodness.
Prescott signed a four-year, $240 million deal just before the 2024 season that the Cowboys might find regrettable. Don’t get me wrong. Prescott is a good quarterback who has been prolific. But Dallas is also feeling the cap constraints. They gave CeeDee Lamb a huge deal, and Micah Parsons will want one soon. And Prescott is where we hit a turning point on this list where you start to wonder: Does this team actually like their QB? Or do they just know they can’t do better?
That’s what feeds the conspiracy theory that Jones is tanking for Manning. It’s not true. But in today’s NFL where you have to pay Prescott $60 million a year, it would make sense that the Cowboys have buyer’s remorse.
San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy
For now, Purdy is the best contract in the NFL. But 49ers owner Jed York said he’d like to get a deal done with the team’s QB this offseason. So, let’s take York for his word and put him in this category, with the assumption he’ll get a big extension.
This past season was a tough one for Purdy, who struggled amid a rash of injuries (and holdouts) on the San Francisco offense. It’s unlucky because, if he swapped his 2023 and 2024 campaigns, we’d probably be talking about $65 million per year for Purdy.
As I said with Stroud, we sometimes see QBs regress. Purdy was one of them. By salary cap logic, he’s not going to get better when his number multiples by 55 or 60. But the 49ers aren’t going to get gutsy and trade Purdy to sign Kirk Cousins (and/or draft another QB). They’re likely to take the plunge with Purdy and hope this year was merely an aberration — and that his incoming mega contract doesn’t cost them future years of contention.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
Speaking of buyer’s remorse, we’ve sort of hit that phase of this tier. Kyler Murray is a fantastic playmaker. I’m just unsure if he’s a good quarterback. Sometimes I wonder if Murray is more interested in seeking out the biggest play — and less interested in seeking out the winning plays. And that’s why the Cardinals might someday elect not to give him another extension. For the time being, he’s worth waiting out, if only because his upside remains high. And perhaps OC Drew Petzing can help Murray break through with more consistent and stable performances.
Certainly for 2025 (when his cap number is $45.6 million), Murray is worth running it back. And if his play remains as entertaining as it has been, he could linger in Arizona all the way through 2027 when his deal would be a bargain ($43.5 million cap hit). But Murray has to show growth over the next few years if the Cardinals are going to extend him (and not trade him, which is the way it’s currently trending).
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
Concussions have derailed the career of one of the NFL’s most promising pocket passers. Just look at 2023 when Tagovailoa threw for 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Even with his issues winning in December and January, Tagovailoa appeared to be an ascending player who might sit higher in this tier. As much as Tagovailoa and Herbert don’t seem like comparable QBs (largely because their physical skill sets greatly contrast), their résumés are quite similar: regular-season success, postseason failure. But with Tua, the concussion history makes his career even more complicated. It’s gotten to the point where I wonder whether he should retire for health reasons. He missed four weeks during the 2024 season and looked solid in his return — but Miami, as a team, looked lost for an identity. By now, Tua should be that identity, the guy who can lift his teammates.
He signed a four-year, $212.4 million deal last offseason, but there is a relatively easy out after the 2026 season. What happens if coach Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier get fired after another mediocre season? Will the next regime have the same attachment to Tua? He’s an excellent system QB, but it’s fair to wonder whether the Dolphins’ QB position is viable for the long term if McDaniels leaves.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
The Lawrence deal looks like general management incompetence. I still can’t believe they handed him $55 million annually.
The Jaguars will have to hope that new coach Liam Cohen resurrects Lawrence’s career. He looked truly bad in 2024: missing simple throws, struggling to make simple reads and failing to elevate a solid-enough supporting cast. The biggest problem with Lawrence is that, while he entered the NFL as a supposedly generational prospect, he has not materially changed from the guy we saw at Clemson. It’s not enough to be a good college football player in the pros. But that’s almost what Lawrence seems to think: he’s good enough already. No need to develop.
There’s still time for Lawrence to wake up. There’s still time for Cohen to fix this offense. But Lawrence has a track record of virtually zero growth. Can we really expect that to change?
WE’RE AT A CROSSROADS AT QB
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
It sounds like L.A. is trying to stay relevant but their team is aging at a few key positions on offense, including — of course — at quarterback. The Rams want to keep Stafford but the two parties are fighting over money, according to FOX Sports’ Jordan Schultz.
From Stafford’s view, he is sitting in a power position. The Rams have no one else worth starting on the roster. And trading him would incur a $45.3 million dead cap hit in 2025 and nearly $23 million in 2026.
But L.A. is one of the most desirable landing spots for a QB. So, if the Rams did trade Stafford (and got a first-round pick in return), it wouldn’t be hard for the Rams to add a top free agent and maxmize his talents. Cousins could fit in with them on a discounted deal. Sam Darnold has some overlap with McVay’s playbook from the QB’s time under O’Connell, a former Rams offensive coordinator. I could even talk myself into Aaron Rodgers making sense for L.A.
Eventually, the Rams will need to draft a QB. And if you’ve been following along, you’ll know when they’re most likely to do that: 2026. The question is whether they’ll pay Stafford and ride him to retirement — or whether they’ll move on with their plans for the future.
Pittsburgh Steelers: TBD
Pittsburgh started Justin Fields and Russell Wilson this year. Both were on one-year deals. Neither was so good that the Steelers need to bring one back as QB1.
Wilson briefly brought a more vertical attack, but the offense crumbled at the end of the season, largely over offensive line issues. And the reality is that Wilson needs an absolutely perfect situation to succeed at this point in his career. It would feel like embracing stagnation to have him come back.
I wouldn’t bet that Fields is their QB of the future, but a part of me is rooting for it, because of how much I saw his game change from 2023 (with the Bears) to 2024 in Pittsburgh. But if the Steelers benched Fields for Wilson just a few months ago, it’s hard to imagine Mike Tomlin thinks highly enough of the youngster to bet on him as QB1.
The problem is that the Steelers aren’t likely to find a game-changing QB where they’re picking — and the draft class doesn’t boast anyone worth the draft capital for a trade-up. So, would they give it a go with Fields, because there’s not much else out there? Or would the Steelers seek out another veteran free agent on a short-term deal? I’ve said these names before. I’ll say them again: Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers.
New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr
The Saints are going to spend the coming months looking around at what better options they can explore, because Carr has not been good enough for New Orleans. The Saints, contractually, could decide to move on from Carr soon. But he’d incur a hefty cap hit and New Orleans is already $50 million over. The Saints are slated to pick at ninth-overall, but there isn’t likely to be a QB worth taking at that slot. You can bet Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward will go in the top five picks. And Jaxson Dart isn’t worth a top-10 pick.
It’s most likely that the Saints sit tight until next year when they can part ways with Carr more clearly In the meantime, the veteran QB could try to sell himself to new coach Kellen Moore. But I see the Saints getting worse this year, in part to get their salary cap bloat under control. Then they’ll draft a QB down the line, probably in 2026.
WE’RE GOOD — FOR NOW
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield
It’s probably unfair to think Mayfield will regress at this point. He has proven over two seasons that he’s stellar at the center of the Buccaneers offense. He’s 29 and will hit free agency after the 2026 season. At this point, he’s set to make just $30 million in new money in 2025 and $40 million in 2026. In terms of average annual value, Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb make more than Mayfield.
This is one of the rare situations where a QB is underpaid — and those types of situations don’t last long. Mayfield is outplaying those terms, and he’s probably well aware of that. The Buccaneers will have to pay him a premium in the coming 12 months — or trade him. And then what happens if Mayfield’s oversized contract shrinks his supporting cast? We’ll probably soon find out. And I’m not sure it’ll do much to improve his playoff record: 2-3.
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith
Smith is such a great story of a quarterback getting wrecked by a bad organization but pulling himself back into relevance. We love that story in the NFL. And at this point, he’s empirically better than about half of the QBs in the league. He led in passing yards at multiple points this season. He finished the year completing 70.4% of his passes for 4,320 yards, 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The passing yards are great. The touchdown-interception ratio isn’t. And the Seahawks are going to have to figure out how long they can live with that element of Smith’s game. He’s not Jameis Winston. But Smith isn’t the picture of disciplined decision-making.
Smith’s contract situation is a rarity: he’s entering the final year of his deal. That might tell you what coach Mike Macdonald thinks of the QB. If they really liked him, he’d already have an extension. To make matters more complicated, he’s set to have a $44.5 million cap hit — and Seattle would save $31 million by cutting him with a post-June designation. So, the Seahawks are probably letting their eyes wander to the draft and to free agency, where they’re wondering how and when they can replace Smith with someone better. It’s just the devil they know is better than the devil they don’t. For now.
WHAT DO WE GOT AT QB?
New England Patriots: Drake Maye
There’s a stark disparity between what people saw from Maye on film — and what his stat line says. The No. 3 pick in the 2024 draft was reluctant to do any self-congratulating after his rookie season, because he went 3-9 as a starter while completing 66.6% of his passes for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. That could be interpreted as the worst season of all the rookie quarterbacks in the 2024 class. But given what Maye was working with on the offensive line (the NFL’s worst group) and with receivers (also the NFL’s worst group), he held up extremely well.
There are places where he needs to grow: late-game decision-making was an issue. His footwork and timing remain a work in progress, though it has improved greatly since he arrived from UNC. The arrow is firmly pointing up for Maye. He just needs a total revamp of his supporting cast, which is likely what coach Mike Vrabel has arrived to do. His coaching staff looks better. Up next? The players. That’s the biggest concern I have for Maye and the Patriots. Can they rebuild fast enough to capitalize upon the young QB’s potential? It’s easy to extinguish fiery talents like Maye. (Just look at Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson.) The Patriots better take care.
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams
Williams was widely considered one of the best quarterback prospects over the past 10 years. Ben Johnson is widely considered to be one of the best offensive coordinators of the past 10 years. They are meant to be together.
Williams had a forgettable rookie year after being selected No. 1 overall in the 2024 draft. There were moments when he flashed as much potential as any of the rookies in this class. The middle of Williams’ season, however, was his lowest point. He looked worse than when he’d come into the NFL. So, that’s what Johnson will take charge of. Williams is a reclamation project. Johnson’s task will be about getting Williams moving forward in his development. In a sense, Williams will reenter his rookie year — just with one year fewer on his contract. It seems like it’ll be fine. But never underestimate Chicago’s ability to mess up a good thing.
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
Young was outstanding at the end of last season. He came back from his benching as if he’d had some sort of epiphany. There was enough high-level play in the second half of the season that he has secured his spot as the Panthers’ QB1 for 2025. But he’s definitely still playing for his job next season.
The future is murky. If Young has a mediocre season, do the Panthers keep trying to develop him? That’ll be up to Dave Canales, who came in after Carolina drafted Young No. 1 overall in 2023. (This is always notable, because it creates questions about whether Young is truly Canales’ guy.)
Young’s future in Carolina is all about how he plays in 2025. A good season would mean the Panthers pick up his fifth-year option. A great season would almost definitely lead to an extension next spring. But a bad season might mean the Panthers draft a QB in 2026 when the QB class is supposed to be outstanding.
Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy
Speaking of uncertainty, this is a weird situation. The Panthers sort of have one in the hand. But the Vikings sort of have two in the bush.
Sam Darnold had a great regular season, but he folded at the end of the regular season into the postseason. Does coach Kevin O’Connell have faith he can help Darnold continue to develop a better handle over those pressure situations? We’ve seen it happen with quarterbacks as they age — they sometimes (but not always) grow into clutch performances. The decision to stick with Darnold would come with a price. While Darnold made just $10 million in 2024, he is set to hit free agency where he’ll command somewhere in the neighborhood of $35 million on a multiyear deal. So if that’s too expensive (or if that number grows when Darnold hits the open market), maybe O’Connell will feel it’s shrewd to let Darnold move on.
Most teams don’t have a second option. They’d re-sign Darnold, merely on his strong overall body of work. But Minnesota has McCarthy, who just spent his entire rookie season on injured reserve after the club traded up a spot to draft him at No. 10. McCarthy tore his meniscus in training camp and underwent surgery in August and November. The Vikings can’t be certain how he’ll perform in the regular season, in part because he has no film and in part because his knee casts additional uncertainty.
The Vikings have two options. It’s just anyone’s guess whether either is a good option.
Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix
The Falcons are in the Vikings’ boat: two options (a veteran and a rookie). People see this as clear-cut: move on from Kirk Cousins and bring on the future with Penix. The Falcons offense improved by changing starters at the end of the season from Cousins to Penix. And Penix came out of his shell steadily, moving from a tentative and conservative player into a more aggressive one. So, yes, in a sense, it’s obvious. It’s Penix’s time.
But there’s the matter of Cousins’ injury. He returned from a torn Achilles, and it’s possible the veteran QB, now 36, could actually be more physically capable in 2025 — another year removed from the injury. It’s probably not a risk worth taking, but it’s a factor for consideration. And then there’s the matter of his contract. The Falcons can cut him with a post-June 1 designation. The cap savings will be $0. Nothing. Their only incentive to cut him is simply if he doesn’t want to be there. (And he probably doesn’t.)
I get it. It’s a foregone conclusion that Cousins is gone. I just want to paint the picture that the Falcons could’ve handled this better at just about every turn. They drafted Penix (at No. 8 overall) as a guy to develop behind Cousins (without telling Cousins that was their plan), just months after signing the veteran to a huge deal in free agency. But they made impulsive, short-term decisions at every twist and turn. And now they’re likely to move onto Penix before we know if he’s ready — and away from Cousins at the moment when he’s most likely to improve.
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson
I am a staunch supporter of the Colts giving Richardson the time he needs to develop. GM Chris Ballard has a long tenure as the leader in Indy, and he seemed to make the Richardson selection (No. 4 overall in 2023) with his own job security in mind. That seemed great. It would give the development prospect some runway to learn more about the quarterback position — and adjust to life in the NFL. The problem is that, between injuries and benchings, Richardson has played just 15 games over his first two seasons. That’s not even a full season.
The Colts will have to make the difficult decision about how much more time they can afford their young QB. As I just noted, the upcoming draft class is impressive. If Richardson’s struggles continue, it will be alluring to abandon him — particularly if there’s a regime change. I’m not saying that would be fair to Richardson. I’m just saying that could be the reality.
WHO’S OUR NEXT QB?
Las Vegas Raiders: Aidan O’Connell/Gardener Minshew
The Raiders have the No. 6 overall pick in the draft and the second-most cap space in the NFL at $92.5 million, per Over The Cap. If there’s a quarterback that Pete Carroll and GM John Spytek want, they can probably go and get him. And unlike the Titans, who have a history of messing up elite QB prospects, Carroll has a really strong history of maximizing a QB’s talent.
Just look at what he did in Seattle with Wilson and Smith. Just look at what he did at USC with Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, John David Booty and Mark Sanchez. QBs tend to look their best when they’re with Carroll, even if his specialties lie on defense.
Tennessee Titans: Will Levis
They have the No. 1 overall pick, and if they want to move on from Levis, they can easily do so. QB prospects Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are among the favorites to go atop the draft. Even if this isn’t a special class at QB, there’s a lot to like about both players. But for the Titans, there’s a caveat. It’s fair to wonder whether Deion Sanders would let his son Shedeur end up in Nashville. The Titans are too often irrelevant in the postseason — but also in terms of media attention. The small market might not help Sanders grow his brand in the ways that are important to that family.
So, it’s nice to have the No. 1 overall pick, and it’s nice to have options with that pick. But do they have options? There’s a lot at play. The Titans sit in a better situation than the teams below, just given the slot they’re picking in. It’s not an enviable position, however.
New York Giants: TBD
Their QB1 to start the 2024 season finished the year on the Minnesota Vikings. So, yeah, things didn’t go according to plan. Now, they need a new plan. The tough part is, Giants coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen are both on a short leash. They will probably get 2025 to save their jobs, but that’s a tough place to operate from. That leads to desperation and desperation often leads to bad decisions.
Right now, New York has the No. 3 overall pick and about $43 million in cap space. Much like the Raiders, the Giants have what they need to get a good QB1. I just question whether they can create and execute a clear vision for that QB.
New York Jets: TBD
The Aaron Rodgers debacle is a nice example of an organization having a clear vision but failing to execute it. The Rodgers experiment failed for so many reasons, and the biggest factor might have been the Achilles injury that was out of everyone’s control.
The Jets pick at No. 7 in the draft. Their new coach Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey are well respected, but Rodgers’ deal will leave behind dead money for years to come. New York has just about $24 million in cap space. Forgive me for not being optimistic about the Jets and their quarterbacking future, but … there’s a long history of mucking up the QB position.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
We’ve arrived at the worst QB situation in the NFL. The Watson trade and extension were, without a doubt, the worst set of transactions in the history of the NFL. His contract is an immovable object. Even if they part ways with him in 2026, the Browns will have to accept dead cap. For 2025, Cleveland will likely keep Watson on IR to recover from his Achilles injury (ICYMI, he ruptured it again this winter after just doing so in October).
In the meantime, the Browns can draft someone at No. 2. But I’d prefer they trade down with the Giants or Raiders to acquire more (future) picks so that when Cleveland finally gets out from under the burden of Watson’s contract, it can retool the roster with draft picks.
Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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