NFL mock draft: Multiple trades, 4 QBs picked in embrace-the-chaos Round 1

Henry McKenna

NFL Reporter

Draft day never goes how we think it will. I can’t imagine anyone has ever gotten a 32-pick mock draft perfectly correct.

And with that in mind, let’s try to buck some of the trends emerging in Mock Draft World. It’s no fun to see every mock draft looking the same. I want to introduce some new ideas, new prospects you might not have heard of, and a few unorthodox big board ideas.

I want to bring the chaos.

It’s not a great draft for quarterbacks, which is why — in this mock — we’ll see a shocking number go in Round 1. It’s an incredible draft for running backs, which is why we’ll see an astonishingly sparse number go in Round 1. No one wants to trade up to fourth overall, supposedly. Well, what if someone did? That’s the idea. Let’s reverse what we think we know about what’s going to happen on Thursday, because the typical simulations rarely prove predictive.

Trust me. It’ll get interesting.

There’s no doubt Ward is going first overall. But what if he didn’t go to the Titans? What if the Giants put next year’s first-rounder on the table along with a package of picks from this year’s class? The Titans just might bite.

New York did deep due diligence on this quarterback class, perhaps because the team isn’t happy with the options beyond Ward. With his physical tools, Ward offers potential that others do not. And it’s not like the Russell Wilson contract will stand in the way. His guaranteed money is comparable to a high-end backup. Even his bonus money is team-friendly.

Let’s imagine that Giants owner John Mara has sent down a directive to his leadership team that he wants a franchise QB in this draft. Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are already in hot water. They might as well go all-in on Ward, who is the most likely QB from this year’s class to save their jobs.

It’s a shocker to kick off draft day.

It’s not going to be Shedeur Sanders here, so let’s get the Browns a two-way starter who has the potential to be a top-10 player at either position — or both.

I’m not sure that Will Levis needs an additional year of evaluation for the Titans to understand who and what he is (and can be). But Ward really isn’t a transcendent prospect, and it’s totally possible he develops into Levis. So the Titans don’t rush into their next QB situation. They sit tight for next year and get better in the trenches.

Nobody thinks the Patriots will be able to move back. But here’s a situation where it happens. The 49ers have 11 picks in this year’s draft, including five in the top 115. And I suspect — given everything we know about the value of this class after the top three picks — the Patriots would move off this pick for a smaller-than-normal haul.

So in this case, the 49ers jump up to land the tackle who is basically perfect for their offense. Membou is the best run blocker in this draft class and his athleticism leaves almost no doubt that he has huge upside as a pass protector.

Because of the perfect fit in San Francisco, Membou is worth the trade up.

Say what? Another trade up?

Everyone keeps saying that there are only three elite prospects. But that isn’t true.

The dirty little secret is that there are four elite prospects in this class: Hunter, Carter, Ward and Jeanty. And some view Jeanty as the best player the 2025 draft has to offer. New Saints coach Kellen Moore just came from an Eagles offense that changed after Saquon Barkley arrived. Jeanty is the best running back prospect since Barkley. So it’s a perfect match. New Orleans comes up from No. 9 to get past Pete Carroll’s Raiders, who have been the most popular landing spot for Jeanty in mocks.

Carroll drafted a receiver in Round 1 just once during his 14-year tenure in Seattle. And that was in his final year, when the Seahawks took Jaxson Smith-Njigba as their second first-rounder in 2023. But with Jeanty off the board, Carroll is going to have to do what he doesn’t seem to like to do: draft a pass-catcher high. At least he can take comfort in drawing from the same well as last time. Like Smith-Njigba, Egbuka is a scrappy, versatile Ohio State receiver.

Most folks think Tetairoa McMillan is the consensus WR1. But not in every war room. For most teams, the top receiver is subjective and about style and fit. It would be unexpected for Egbuka to go first among receivers, but you can see why he makes sense here.

RELATED: Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka’s secret? The pursuit of perfection ‘to the nth degree’

For the second year in a row, the Jets are going to pass on the draft’s top tight end prospect and select a tackle. Simmons suffered an ACL injury but might be the best tackle in this class if he’d stayed healthy. The Jets can put him at right tackle across from Olu Fashanu and have an embarrassment of riches. Brock Bowers? No thanks. And Tyler Warren? Again, no thanks.

The Panthers loaded up on DTs in free agency. But they’re not stopping there. Here’s a youngster to add to that rotation that’ll be loaded for 2025.

Harmon isn’t a name seen often in the top 10 picks, but he might be the best interior pass-rusher in the class. And that makes for good value at this point in the draft. He’s tough. He’s athletic. He’s a real centerpiece for a defense.

It might feel like a luxury pick to pair Warren with Cole Kmet, but Warren is a more willing and capable blocker than Kmet. And you can bet that matters to new head coach Ben Johnson. It’s more probable than not that Chicago addresses a defensive issue, but with Warren sliding, the Bears can’t help but take the best player available.

RELATED: Bears 7-round mock draft: Chicago targets skill players to build around Caleb Williams

Everyone thinks Campbell is going to be the first tackle off the board to New England. But with his arm length, some folks aren’t sure he’s a tackle. And if they’re not sure he’s a tackle, then he’s not worth the No. 4 pick.

So the Patriots trade back to mitigate risk — and still get Campbell. And it makes sense. All three of these top tackles have a major point of uncertainty. With Membou, the question is whether he becomes elite as a pass protector (and then whether he can flip to the left side). With Simmons, it’s the knee. With Campbell, the question is whether his skills as a technician can help him overcome his arm length and athletic limitations.

The Patriots pull the trigger in hopes he’s their left tackle of the future. If he’s a guard, the optics are better now that they got him at 11. Either way, Drake Maye breathes a sigh of relief.

Walker once said: “I’m at my best being a chess piece.”

I’m not going to compare him to Micah Parsons, who is currently in a contract stalemate with the Cowboys. But Jerry Jones might make that comparison just to see the world burn. Walker is the most versatile defensive player in this draft class. He can play inside linebacker, outside linebacker and edge rusher. His money-making skill, of course, is rushing the passer.

Goodbye, Tyreek Hill!

The Dolphins love fast receivers. Golden was the fastest at the combine, and he was already widely considered the second-best receiver in this class. Miami might say it’s not moving Hill for anything less than two first-rounders. But that might change after the Dolphins lock down Golden to play alongside Jaylen Waddle, now promoted to WR1.

Just about everywhere you look, the Colts are taking a tight end — either Warren or Colston Loveland. But Ezeiruaku is the best player on the board. Here’s what I like about him. 1) He had 16.5 sacks. Look at the other edges in this class and you’ll see most didn’t crack double-digit sack totals. They’re going to get drafted high for traits — not proven production. 2) Ezeiruaku’s athleticism score is pretty dang good, particularly his 3-cone (6.94 seconds) at 6-foot-2 and 250 pounds.

You thought I was going to pick a quarterback, didn’t you? That would’ve been unexpected. The Falcons brought in defensive coordinator Jeff Ublrich, who is about as good with linebackers as any coach in the NFL. Campbell has an interesting skill set, a pass-rusher in high school who had to play off-ball in order to get on the field early in his career. Ulbrich will figure out what to do with this impressive athlete.

Most folks see Banks as a tackle. But the Cardinals are going to do what’s probably best for Banks and move him inside to the guard spot from Day 1.

The Patriots take some of the draft assets they got in their trade back from fourth overall to jump up from the top of the second round and get help at receiver. McMillan wasn’t supposed to last this long. New England stops the slide and puts him on the field with Stefon Diggs as Maye’s top options.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are dealing with a major financial crunch, so they’re happy to fill their roster with rent-controlled rookies. The more picks the better.

Cooper Kupp could get old fast. Burden will give the Seahawks a receiver who can learn under Kupp and eventually supplant him. Kupp, Burden and Smith-Njigba can all do a little bit of everything — which will make life complicated for opposing DCs.

Yes, I know, this offense needs linemen a whole lot more than it needs anything else. But this class doesn’t actually have that much to offer on the OL at this point. There will be options on Day 2 for the Seahawks to fill their needs at guard and center.

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Here’s another edge who put up sacks this year — 17, to be exact. I totally get that sacks are a misleading stat, particularly for a guy out of Marshall. But compare that to the numbers last year from James Pearce (7.5), Nic Scourton (5) and Shemar Stewart (1.5). Green was dominant at the Senior Bowl and the combine. Let’s send him to Tampa, where no one had double-digit sacks in 2024.

Everyone pegs this as a spot where the second RB goes. And, yes, it’s a really good spot for Omarion Hampton. But this draft boasts almost 10 running backs who could step into a starting role in Week 1. The same isn’t true at every position. What if Jeanty is the only RB who goes in Round 1 because teams think they can find a good fit on Day 2? Or later?

Zabel could be special at basically any spot on the line, but the Broncos will start him at center.

The second QB off the board is … not Shedeur Sanders. The day of the pocket-passing quarterback is over. Milroe is an insane athlete who could be truly special if he gets the time he will need to develop. Aaron Rodgers is probably (maybe) going to play for the Steelers. So Rodgers arrives. Milroe develops. And someday, Milroe takes over.

Would Jalen Milroe be a good fit for the Steelers?

He’s just too good for him to fall any further. The Chargers land a CB1 to go with Donte Jackson, an offseason signing, and Cam Hart, their returner.

Let’s get a Tee Higgins for Jordan Love. But because Tee Higgins went back to the Bengals, we’ll look to the draft, where Jayden Higgins is waiting. He’s 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds with check-every-box speed and agility. Then there’s his production: 2,166 yards and 15 touchdowns in his two seasons at Iowa State. Green Bay takes another swing at receiver for the love of Love.

With all the crazy picks happening at the back end of the first round, Grant falls directly into the Vikings’ lap. They need a guy to hold down their defensive interior. They couldn’t ask for a better fit here at 24th overall than Grant, a nose tackle who moves in ways a nose tackle shouldn’t.

The Browns need a quarterback right now. And Sanders is one of the few QBs available who can lead an NFL franchise right now. So coach Kevin Stefanski bangs the table for the Browns to move up (and ensure that the Rams don’t draft and groom Sanders). The Stefanski system is going to be great for Sanders, who should enjoy throwing to David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy, particularly on play-action.

Expect the unexpected, remember?

Dart’s skill set as a horizontal passer, attacking the crossers and outs, could suit Sean McVay’s system, but only if the young QB gets a little time to transition from his college system. Dart might be the hardest-working quarterback in this class. He has an underrated football IQ. All that will be necessary as he learns from Matthew Stafford and prepares to replace him.

Now here’s a freak athlete. He ran a 4.28 40-yard dash and jumped 39.5 inches. He’s tall enough at 5-foot-11. Best of all, you can plainly see all of that athleticism on his film. He should step right into Baltimore’s lineup and improve its 31st-ranked pass defense.

Williams is huge. He’s feisty. He’s tenacious. He’d probably bite the kneecaps off a guy if Dan Campbell asked him to. Which is why the Lions are drafting him.

This is probably lower than the mock-draft-obsessed are accustomed to seeing Williams. That’s the fun of this exercise. But his ankle injury led to a lack of production in his final year. And like so many other edge players in this class, Williams’ unique athleticism didn’t amount to big numbers on the field. He’s enough of a specimen for the Commanders to risk it. But he’s still a risk.

If not for his position, Jackson might be a top-10 player in this draft. But because he’s a guard (who dabbled at tackle), he’s only occasionally projected to go in Round 1. But I think Jackson would be an interesting selection for the Bills. Do they need a cornerback more? Yes, but GM Brandon Beane doesn’t always draft for need. He seems to prefer not to. Jackson would compete with David Edwards for starting guard, and it wouldn’t be the end of the world if he started on the bench.

This would be fun, wouldn’t it?

Travis Kelce has been begging for a reduced workload, but the Chiefs couldn’t give him one last year. Loveland would help enormously in preserving Kelce for the postseason. And the Michigan tight end is, by far, the best offensive weapon available in this slot for a team that desperately needed playmakers last season.

Here’s some love for a guy who The Ringer’s Todd McShay thinks will be one of the best tackles in the class. At 6-foot-6, 300 pounds with a 5.01-second 40-yard dash, Ersery has a combination of size, speed and athleticism that compares only to Orlando Brown, Trent Brown and Daniel Faalele. And it’s not like the questions with Ersery (limited knee bend and hip tightness) are bigger than those with others. But give him a year to develop? He could be a Pro Bowler.

Now, would Howie Roseman do this to Lane Johnson, who is 34 and on a one-year deal? I don’t know. But we do know Roseman likes to think about the future at premium positions. That’s what he’d be doing here.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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