NFL Divisional Round action report: 'It’s been all Ravens money coming in so far'

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL divisional-round odds provide intriguing options for bettors on all four matchups. But there’s no denying that a lot of eyeballs — and money — will be on the weekend-capping showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.

It’s a battle between the top MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Voting is already closed for that award, but bettors are casting their ballots by way of wagers on the Sunday night contest.

“These are the top two teams in our power ratings. It’s really kind of interesting to see the market treating these two teams as the best in the league. We have both of them better than the Chiefs,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

And, better than the NFC No. 1 seed Detroit Lions.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Ravens vs. Bills and the rest of the matchups, as we dive into NFL divisional-round betting.

Backing Baltimore

Caesars opened Buffalo as a 1.5-point home favorite, then saw sharp action at Baltimore +1.5 and +1. So, as of Wednesday night, the point spread is Baltimore -1.

The Bills are 14-4 straight up (SU) and 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Ravens are 13-5 SU/11-6-1 ATS.

“The biggest move we saw this week so far was with Ravens-Bills, and that obviously is the biggest matchup of the week,” Feazel said of Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff. “It’s been all Ravens money coming in so far. The initial line move was from sharp play, going through zero.”

The Ravens-Bills total is still at its 51.5 opener, but early bettors have an opinion.

“There’s more money on Under 51.5. We know it’s gonna be cold,” Feazel said.

Temperatures are expected to be in the teens at best on Sunday night, with winds of 10-15 mph making matters worse.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills — The AFC’s biggest playoff clash

NFL Rocks On FOX

FOX gets an attractive Saturday night matchup, in an 8 p.m. ET kickoff. Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders visit the extremely popular Lions and their go-for-it coach, Dan Campbell.

The Lions are coming off a bye week, following a regular season in which they were not only superb on the field but at the betting window. Detroit is 15-2 SU/12-5-1 ATS, the second-best spread-covering mark in the NFL.

The Commanders (13-5 SU/11-6-1 ATS) hope to ride Daniels’ arm and legs to a big upset. Caesars opened the Lions as 8.5-point home favorites and quickly moved out to -9.5 early this week.

Feazel said Washington is actually getting a little more action early. But that’s going to change. The public betting masses have piled on Detroit for 2.5 seasons now, with the Lions going 37-10 SU/35-11-1 ATS in their last 47 games.

“The Lions have gotten a steady stream of action all season, and I don’t think that changes this weekend,” Feazel said.

The total is arguably just as intriguing as the point spread in this game. At 55.5, it’s easily the highest total in NFL divisional-round odds.

“We’re seeing pretty split action right now,” Feazel said Wednesday. “But that is going to change come game day. The public is going to bet the Over. We’ll definitely see an onslaught of action on the Over.”

NFL Sharp Side

With only four games on the menu in NFL playoff odds, professional bettor Randy McKay doesn’t have a lot from which to choose. But he’s come up with three plays:

First up is the first game, a 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday meeting between the top-seeded Chiefs and the Houston Texans. The Chiefs are consensus 8.5-point home favorites.

Along with a bye last week, K.C. also rested a lot of key players in a 38-0 Week 18 loss at Denver. McKay said that factors into his Texans +8.5 bet.

“It’s rust vs. playing. Is K.C. going to be ready after sitting for 24 days?” McKay said. “Houston might have the best defense left in the playoffs. I see a tight game.”

The last time the Chiefs went all out was in a 29-10 Christmas Day victory at Pittsburgh.

McKay also bet Under 44.5 on the Los Angeles Rams vs. the Philadelphia Eagles total.

“It’s tough travel for the Rams, coming off their Monday night victory,” McKay said, before noting a Week 12 matchup in L.A. between these two teams. “That game was 37-20 Eagles. I don’t see that this time, with two teams that like to run the ball.”

Finally, McKay got in on Ravens vs. Bills, taking Baltimore at pick ‘em. In this instance, McKay thinks the regular-season matchup matters more. Baltimore rumbled to a 35-10 home victory over Buffalo in Week 4.

“Baltimore won this game easily on Sunday Night Football. I see this as another scenario where the Bills defense is going to have trouble against the Baltimore running attack, with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry,” McKay said.

Making sense of the Eagles’ offensive struggles

Major Wager Skews Money

As noted above, Texans vs. Chiefs kicks off the NFL divisional-round odds market with a 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff. Kansas City (15-2 SU/8-9 ATS) got a bye last weekend, while Houston (11-7 SU/12-6 ATS) somewhat surprised the L.A. Chargers 32-12 as 2.5-point home underdogs.

The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home favorites and are up to -8.5 at Caesars as the weekend approaches.

“Thus far, it’s been pretty balanced action. But we had a bigger bet on the Texans that’s kind of skewing the money,” Feazel said, noting a $110,000 Texans +8 wager. “And there’s some Under money, too. Five of the six wild-card games went Under, so that’ll be fresh in people’s minds.

“Plus, in the playoffs, early money tends to be on the Under.”

Caesars opened the total at 42.5 and is down to 41.5.

Funding Philly

Rams vs. Eagles is the opening Sunday game, at 3 p.m. ET. Caesars hasn’t moved off the Eagles as 6-point home favorites.

“Right now, we are seeing mostly Eagles money. They’re the favorite, and they’ve been a consistent team. So it’s not a surprise to see Eagles action,” Feazel said.

Philly is 15-3 SU and a solid 12-5 ATS, as well, while Los Angeles is 11-7 SU/10-8 ATS. The Rams are +222 on the moneyline to pull the outright upset, which Feazel thinks will be attractive to some bettors.

“Our likely need is the Eagles to win but not cover,” he said.

I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie

As noted above, Caesars took a $110,000 bet on Texans +8 vs. the Chiefs. If Houston loses by 7 or less, then the bettor pockets $100,000 in profit ($210,000 total payout).

Caesars also took a bet on the biggest ‘dog of the week. A customer put $110,000 on Commanders +9.5, also for a potential $100,000 profit ($210,000 total payout).

There are also two notable Super Bowl bets and an AFC futures bet held by Caesars:

$150,000 Lions +440 to win the Super Bowl. If Detroit goes the distance, then the bettor profits $660,000 (total payout $810,000).
$100,000 Ravens +850 to win the Super Bowl. A Baltimore championship would net this customer a massive $850,000 win (total payout $950,000).
$100,000 Chiefs +200 to win the AFC. If Kansas City just reaches the Super Bowl, then the bettor nets $200,000 profit (total payout $300,000).

Last Sunday, shortly before kickoff of the Eagles’ 22-10 win over the Packers, a customer of Borgata Sports in Atlantic City dropped a matching pair of bets:

$50,000 Eagles +325 to win the NFC
$50,000 Eagles +700 to win the Super Bowl

If Philly can cash both those tickets, then the bettor will clear more than half-a-million in profit, at $512,500 (total payout $612,500).

But if that bettor can just get the NFC wager through, it will more than cover both bets. An Eagles NFC title would net $162,500 (total payout $212,500).

It’s gonna be an interesting couple of weeks for that customer.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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