New NFL contenders? Ranking 18 teams’ playoff chances after missing postseason

We know the turnover is coming, we just don’t know where.

Clichés become clichés for a reason, and the NFL playoff field proves it every January. The old adage was that half the field flips over every year, lending credence to the idea that every team has hope heading into the season.

The numbers don’t quite bear that out since the league switched to a 14-team postseason in 2020. In those five years, the turnover is slightly more modest, with the average field sitting at five new teams every year. As many as seven teams have managed the feat in 2022, but the number dipped to four in 2024.

Still, the point stands:tha As confident as we might feel about the league’s elite in June, there will be shakeups in the pecking order.

Who is most likely to break through? Of the 18 teams that didn’t make last year’s playoffs, there are plenty of choices. Talented teams that came oh-so close, or maybe fun young newcomers.

Let’s sort it out, in order of probability (along with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook). 

Double whammy for the Giants: a roster that needs work and a schedule that looks unforgiving. New York plays 10 games against 2024 playoff teams this season, with six of those coming in the first eight weeks. Playing the AFC West and NFC North on top of six division games is absolutely brutal. And if that wasn’t bad enough, two of the games it drew as a “reward” for finishing fourth are against San Francisco and Las Vegas. Not exactly the cellar dwellers you’d expect. 

It’s a tough break, because I really don’t think the roster is that bad. If the Giants had an easier road in front of them, I’d be tempted to think Russell Wilson, Malik Nabers and this fierce pass rush could get them to nine wins. But against this slate, I don’t know. It’s tough to see.

Playoff odds: +650

I’m conflicted with the Browns, because it’s not as if this is an awful roster. Led by Myles Garrett, the Cleveland defense that was such a force in 2023 is largely intact. The offensive line could still be a strength, provided those guys can stay healthy. David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy are good players, and the Browns just drafted a pair of fun, young running backs. Hell, we even know that Joe Flacco is capable of piloting this team to the playoffs. So, why’s everyone so down on the Browns? Mainly just playing the odds. 

What are the chances that the necessary veterans stay healthy? What are the chances that Flacco can deliver 12 or 13 quality starts, instead of five or six? What are the chances that Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel is ready to capably start if need be? And even if all of that works out, what are the chances they can eke out a playoff spot in the AFC North? They don’t seem good from here.

Playoff odds: +800

I really like where the Jets stand in the big picture. This looks like a team that’s ready to make patient decisions after the impulsiveness of the Aaron Rodgers era. The offensive line looks like it will be a strength of the team after back-to-back tackle picks in the first round of the draft. The defense is still littered with young talent for Aaron Glenn to work with in his first year as head coach. 

The main problem is just that I don’t think there’s enough juice yet on offense, headlined by the fact that we don’t know if Justin Fields can finally become a franchise guy or if he’s just a placeholder. I think the Jets’ collective arrow is pointing up right now. I just don’t think I see this as anything more than a developmental year for Glenn and his core players.

Playoff odds: +475

Some teams on this list were punished by the tough draw of the schedule. The Saints got pushed up a bit for the opposite reason. I think the NFC South is a bit better than it gets credit for, but it’s still one of the divisions that could make a surprise playoff run more manageable for its teams. New Orleans opens its season with a tough run of Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle and Buffalo in September. But after that stretch, the Saints play only three games against 2024 playoff teams. It’s a favorable schedule for a roster that isn’t as bad as people make it out to be. 

The one big caveat, obviously, is that this all depends on an unproven quarterback making the most of his opportunity. Whether it’s Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener, it’s undeniable that the Saints are going to be starting the least experienced quarterback in the NFL this season. On the bright side, the supporting cast is solid, and the schedule isn’t as scary as it could be. I don’t think that’s quite good enough, but it’s at least something to think about.

Playoff odds: +600

There’s a world where it all comes together for the Pats in one year. It’s so easy to imagine a scenario where we get to November and these young upstarts are sitting on a 7-2 record. Will Campbell is a Day 1 star at left tackle; Morgan Moses has stayed healthy at right tackle. TreVeyon Henderson is on pace for a 1,000-yard rookie season. Robert Spillane and Carlton Davis are playing like Pro Bowlers in their first fall with the team. Mike Vrabel is finding an edge on the margins and outmaneuvering opposing coaches. 

And with all that added help, Drake Maye looks like the franchise quarterback we all hope he can be. It’s all possible, but in my experience, things rarely work out that beautifully all at once. Especially not in a division featuring a true Super Bowl favorite in the Buffalo Bills. I think this will be a vastly improved group in 2025 — and a really fun one. If I had to bet, I think 2026 is more likely for a playoff breakout. But you just never know. Maybe this is one of those rare occasions where it all clicks at once.

Playoff odds: +120

Full disclosure: I’m one of those Geno Smith stans. I think he’s a good quarterback who’s worth building around for at least a few more years. He had a winning record all three years he started in Seattle, and now he’s stepping into an offense that already has a few quality pieces in Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty and Jakobi Meyers. I’d have the Raiders much higher on this list if they didn’t play in such a loaded division. 

It’s hard to imagine the division title is up for grabs, since the Kansas City Chiefs haven’t let it slip in nearly a literal decade. And we know the wild-card competition should be fierce, since the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos were good enough to snag playoff spots last year. Crazier things have happened, though. This isn’t a team you should be overlooking.

Playoff odds: +330

Another team that will see its ceiling heavily impacted by its investments at quarterback. The Colts quietly have a nice roster. I love the additions they made in the secondary and the offensive skill positions are deep. The offensive line concerns me a bit, but it’s not a deal-breaker. Much like the Jaguars and Titans, the Colts have to view taking the AFC South from the Houston Texans as a realistic possibility. Of course, realism could look like pure fantasy by November, if Indianapolis doesn’t find some reliable quarterback play. 

Anthony Richardson is entering a make-or-break Year 3 after a rough 2024. Should he break, Daniel Jones is eager to prove he can be the next big quarterback reclamation project, à la Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold. If either one of those guys plays like a franchise quarterback, it’s easy to sell the Colts as a playoff team. Otherwise, it will be a turbulent 2025 for Indy.

Playoff odds: +200

We have a precedent for how the Titans might quickly turn things around, because we’ve seen it in each of the past two years. C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels have provided the blueprint for how the right rookie quarterback can lead a playoff charge. It’s a tough standard to hold Cam Ward to, but we know that it’s possible. The Titans have done an admirable job building a capable offense around him. The offensive line should be far better than your average No. 1 overall pick is working with. The defense was not the issue in Nashville last year. 

As I’ve already said, the AFC South isn’t quite the gauntlet as some of the other divisions Ward could have landed in. It might not happen, but a playoff spot is worth daydreaming about — if Ward plays up to his draft slot.

Playoff odds: +370

There’s a strong case to be made for the Panthers as a big-time sleeper team this fall. Bryce Young was so fun during his second-half surge last year. Carolina’s offensive line is good. Its skill groups have some added juice, highlighted by first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan. Its defense, which was one of the most untalented groups in the league last season, spent a small fortune on upgrades. The Panthers play in the manageable NFC South, and they don’t play a game against a 2024 playoff team until Halloween. It’s all there for them to turn some heads.

Playoff odds: +250

The Bears are an exciting, interesting team, so it feels harsh to place them so far down this list. My concern is not with Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson or any of the wonderful additions that have been made this offseason. The problem is mainly that reaching the playoffs looks like one hell of a Mt. Everest-sized task in 2025. For starters, we know the Bears play in the NFC North — the division that produced three 11-win teams last year. Bumping up against the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers six times promises to be a slog. 

If that wasn’t enough, the Bears will also be seeing the likes of Philadelphia, Washington, Dallas, Baltimore, Cincinnati and San Francisco. This is a meat grinder of a schedule. So, while I am a Williams believer, and I am excited to watch him play for Johnson this season, I’m not ready to dive into the deep end just yet.

Playoff odds: +160

There sure was a lot of turnover in Seattle this offseason. Obviously, Sam Darnold is the big new name. Is drafting Grey Zabel in the first round enough to stabilize the offensive line? Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a star in the making, but do Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have enough gas in the tank to offset the loss of DK Metcalf? Can newly-signed DeMarcus Lawrence stay healthy enough to elevate the Seahawks’ pass rush? Seattle has sneaky big potential if the answer to these questions is “yes,” but I’m skeptical.

Playoff odds: +150

Most everything I said about the Seahawks applies to the Cardinals, only there’s a lot more continuity in Arizona. I’m such a big fan of what general manager Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon are building in the desert, I want to believe. Last year, it was the offense that got the offseason makeover; this year, it’s the defense. 

This isn’t the most star-studded roster in the NFC, but if these defensive upgrades pan out, the Cardinals should be a well-rounded team. The one problem with my plan is that the Cards play in the NFC West, which looks loaded again. They’ll likely need to be better than 3-3 in division play if they want to make some noise.

Playoff odds: +130

Miami and the next team on this list remind me of each other in that they’re both getting overlooked a bit more than their talent level suggests. Yes, the Dolphins have flaws, and I would not pick them to win the Super Bowl. But we also know that they’re usually in the playoff mix when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. That’s not to say Miami will steal the AFC East from the Bills. But if Tua’s healthy and the offense is firing on all cylinders, that could be good enough for a 9-8 or 10-7 wild-card berth.

Playoff odds: +155

Dallas would be higher on the list if it played in another division. This is a talented roster, and the Cowboys are always in the playoff mix when Dak Prescott is healthy. It’s just a tough, tough road. The reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles look as strong as ever, and the Washington Commanders are seeking to build on a 12-5 season. If that wasn’t enough, there are games against the Chiefs, Lions and Packers to worry about. Prescott, Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb will have the Cowboys in the mix, but securing a playoff spot in the toughest NFC East we’ve seen in years will be a challenge.

Playoff odds: +190

Everyone’s going to spend the spring and summer hyping up the Falcons. Will they finally deliver on it, or will they hand the division to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yet again? The answer completely depends on Michael Penix Jr. If he’s ready to be a franchise quarterback, Atlanta just might win the NFC South for the first time since 2016. The offense has everything it could possibly need. The defense spent big-time resources on its pass rush during the draft. The Falcons only play two games against 2024 playoff teams after Week 6. 

If Penix is good, this team has serious potential to break out for 12-plus wins. If he’s merely fine, or if he’s shaky, it could be another frustrating season watching the guys down south hang another banner.

Playoff odds: +155

Same story as the Falcons, different city. One of these days, I’m going to stop believing in the Jags — but not today. It’s just such a tempting combination. I firmly believe Trevor Lawrence is a good quarterback when he’s healthy, and both his offensive line and his receiving corps should be improved in 2025. The defense made a few solid additions. Just as important: The path to the postseason is still unfairly forgiving, as the AFC South remains one of the least intimidating divisions in the league. 

The Jaguars do have to play the AFC West and NFC West, which will be tough. But, with all due respect to Houston, this is one of the easiest division schedules you’re going to find. Stealing the division from the Texans is an attainable goal, even if I don’t fully trust Jacksonville to do it.

Playoff odds: +155

Honestly, the Bengals haven’t given me a ton of reasons to think they’ve fixed last year’s defensive issues. Trey Hendrickson remains in a contract stalemate with the team, and first-round pick Shemar Stewart is staging a rarely-seen rookie holdout. Those are scary problems when you have to play six games against the AFC North, as well as matchups with Buffalo, Detroit and Green Bay, among others. 

All of that said, I’m not willing to bet against Joe Burrow and this Cincy offense. They might need to average 34 points per game to reach the playoffs, but the crazy thing is they’re capable of that. It’s going to be stressful, because it’s always stressful with the Bengals, but I still think they’re capable of 10 wins and making the playoffs.

Playoff odds: -160

I think we’re all writing the 49ers off a bit early. There’s been some attrition in the Bay Area, and this is no longer the Infinity Gauntlet roster from 2022. It’s still a quality roster, so long as the veterans can stay healthy. That is a gamble, to be fair, but it’s one I’m willing to make. It feels a little less risky when you look at San Francisco’s schedule. 

By virtue of finishing fourth in the NFC West last year, the Niners are facing about as forgiving a slate as you could hope to see. They only play four games against 2024 playoff teams — two games against the division rival Rams, along with road trips to Tampa Bay and Houston. They also play a whopping seven games against teams that drafted in the top 10 this spring. There are no guarantees, but I think a bounce back is coming.

Playoff odds: -200

David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

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