Michael Cohen
College Football and College Basketball Writer
For the third time in as many years, Houston earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament under the stellar tutelage of head coach Kelvin Sampson, who is among the best in the business at 69 years young. His Cougars stormed to a 30-4 overall record and 19-1 mark in the Big 12 that more than warranted a top seed relatively close to home.
The biggest challengers to Sampson & Co. might come from the SEC, a conference that is sending 14 teams to this year’s NCAA Tournament. Second-seeded Tennessee and third-seeded Kentucky could do battle in the Sweet 16 for a chance to face Houston in the regional finals.
But there are plenty more storylines across the rest of the Midwest, which includes last year’s national runners-up in Purdue, perennial NCAA Tournament powerhouse Gonzaga and a popular upset choice in No. 13 McNeese, led by former LSU head coach Will Wade.
Here’s a full breakdown of the region:
Of the top-four seeds, which team has the most favorable draw in this region?
At first blush, this region seems like it was correctly seeded in the sense that No. 1 Houston, which finished 30-4 overall and won both the regular season and tournament titles in the Big 12, has the cleanest path to the Final Four. It’s true that a second-round matchup between the winner of No. 8 Gonzaga and No. 9 Georgia might be tricky — the former is led by one of the best coaches in the country in Mark Few and the latter has a likely first-round draft pick in Asa Newell — but the remaining teams in the top half of Houston’s quadrant are beatable. Fourth-seeded Purdue is limping into the NCAA Tournament having lost six of its last nine games, including a blowout defeat to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. And fifth-seeded Clemson, while solid, racked up plenty of wins in what was unquestionably a down season for the ACC, calling into question how good the Tigers really are. Houston should sail comfortably into the Elite Eight.
From there, however, things could get a bit trickier depending on how well the SEC performs on the national level after setting an NCAA Tournament record for most teams in the field. Second-seeded Tennessee ranks third in the country for defensive efficiency and made a run to the SEC Tournament title game on Sunday afternoon. Third-seeded Kentucky, while inconsistent, has 12 wins over teams in this year’s Big Dance. Either one of them could be a worthy adversary for the Cougars in a regional final.
What is the most intriguing first-round matchup in this region?
It has to be fourth-seeded Purdue and 13th-seeded High Point, right? Few coaches in college basketball history, if any, have suffered more devastating losses to double-digit seeds than Matt Painter, whose Boilermakers fell to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023, No. 15 Saint Peter’s in 2022, No. 13 North Texas in 2021 and No. 12 Little Rock in 2016. Last year’s team made amends with an impressive run to the national championship game, ultimately falling short against UConn, but All-American center Zach Edey is no longer there to anchor things for Painter at both ends of the floor. The Boilermakers are increasingly reliant on the individual talents of undersized point guard Braden Smith (6 feet, 175 pounds), who leans heavily on analytically questionable mid-range jumpers, and undersized center Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 230 pounds), who is a subpar rim protector.
So what about High Point, champions of the Big South? The Panthers, coached by former Creighton assistant Alan Huss, are an offensive machine that ranks 25th nationally in efficiency (118.5 points per 100 possessions), 18th nationally in points per game (82.2), 12th in effective field goal percentage (56.4%) and 47th in free-throw percentage (76.4%). They will carry a 14-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament.
Who are the must-see players in this region?
— Kasparas Jakucionis, point guard, Illinois: The true freshman from Lithuania has been on NBA radars for years and is projected to be a lottery pick in this summer’s draft, potentially even cracking the top five. He has excellent size at 6-feet-6 and 200 pounds and leads the Illini in both scoring (15 points per game) and assists (4.6 per game). He has posted five double-doubles already this season, including a 15-point, 10-rebound effort in the Big Ten Tournament last week.
— Chaz Lanier, shooting guard, Tennessee: A transfer from North Florida, where he averaged 19.7 points per game last season, Lanier carried over his production into what was unquestionably college basketball’s toughest conference. He leads the Volunteers in scoring at 17.9 points per game and is tied for 11th nationally with 3.3 made 3-pointers per game, including eight outings with five or more.
— Joseph Tugler, forward, Houston: The seventh-best high school prospect to commit to Houston in the recruiting rankings era, Tugler has blossomed into arguably the best defender in the country as a true sophomore. His Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating of 4.97 is the best in college basketball — narrowly ahead of Duke freshman Cooper Flagg — and he ranks tied for 15th nationally with 70 blocks this season. Tugler’s modest stat line of 5.6 points and 5.7 rebounds per game belies his importance to the Cougars.
[MORE: 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket here]
What is the most likely first-round upset in this region?
Whichever 11-seed emerges from Dayton, be that Texas or Xavier, has an excellent chance to secure a first-round upset over No. 6 Illinois. The Longhorns (19-15 overall) are led by one of the nation’s elite scorers in freshman guard Tre Johnson, who averages 19.8 points per game and is viewed as a potential lottery pick. He is one of four players scoring in double figures this season for a team that has a top-40 offense overall.
And if Xavier prevails, the Illini will be facing one of the hotter teams in the country. The Musketeers entered the Big East Tournament having won seven consecutive games, including four by double digits, before falling short to Marquette in an instant classic at Madison Square Garden. Sharpshooting guard Ryan Conwell poured in 38 against the Golden Eagles and is averaging 24.4 points per game over his last five.
Either way, it could be a difficult matchup for an underachieving Illinois team that has plenty of intriguing pieces but got blown out by Maryland at the Big Ten Tournament in a game they trailed by as many as 36 points.
Who will win this region?
Houston. The Cougars stormed through a deep Big 12 conference with ease, winning 19 of their 20 league games during the regular season and then cutting down the nets in Kansas City last week after three more victories by 37 combined points. Sampson’s team has only lost four games total — all of which came against teams that qualified for this year’s NCAA Tournament — and three of those defeats were in overtime. Houston has only lost once since Nov. 30 and rolls into the Big Dance clicking on all cylinders with the nation’s 10th-best offense and the nation’s second-best defense. The Cougars should be heavy favorites to reach a Final Four that will be played in their home state.
Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.
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