MLB Stock Report: Are We Ready for a Yankees-Red Sox Wild-Card Series?

Even with the Yankees playing their version of high-quality baseball, that likely won’t be good enough to catch the Blue Jays for the AL East title.

And this past weekend offered a sneak peek of what could be waiting for the Bombers in the postseason: a three-game wild-card series against the Red Sox.

That is, if the Yankees can hold on to the top seed in the American League wild card race. It’s important to note that the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers are in the mix if the Sox can’t hold on to their wild-card spot down the stretch. But New York should be feeling pretty good about its chances after winning the series in Boston this weekend. 

New York went 7-5 during its two-week stress test against the Astros, Jays, Tigers, and Red Sox, winning its series against all except Detroit (who outscored the Bombers, 26-12 over three games). Despite that positive effort, the Yankees on Monday morning were looking up — four games behind Toronto in the AL East standings. 

Now, the Yankees have one of the easiest schedules in the major leagues to wrap up the regular season. They’re set to face a trio of sub-.500 clubs in the Twins, Orioles, and White Sox over their next 13 games. But even if New York goes 10-3 in that stretch, the Blue Jays can still manage to win the division by going 6-7 in their remaining games against the Rays, Royals, and the Red Sox. 

It’s not impossible for the Yankees to overtake the Jays, but their Canadian division rivals have played consistently all year, and a complete collapse at this point in the season is highly unlikely. Entering Monday, the FanGraphs’ projection system is giving Toronto a 92% chance of winning the division.

It starts with New York’s rotation. Southpaw Max Fried, the Yanks’ de-facto ace without Gerrit Cole, struck out six batters and allowed two runs and two walks over 5.1 solid innings in their win on Saturday. Fried leads the majors with 17 wins in his first season of an eight-year pact with the Yankees, and it’s a strong sign that the club feels confident when he takes the mound. 

Next, it was encouraging to see Aaron Judge homer off Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet, who is expected to start Game 1 of that potential wild-card series. Though Crochet has looked dominant against the Bombers this season, the Yankees’ lineup has faced him twice in the past three weeks, and it’s fair to wonder whether all of that recent exposure to Boston’s right-hander will only work in New York’s favor in October. 

Still, the Yankees should be wary about potentially being in a deficit heading into the later innings against the Red Sox. 

Closer Aroldis Chapman has been phenomenal this season. He boasts a 1.26 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 38.7% strikeout rate and .126 opponent batting average — all of which lead the major leagues. In his age-37 season and 16th year in the big leagues, Chapman is as unhittable as it gets. Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger tested that theory and hung in there for a run-scoring double against the flame-throwing lefty on Saturday. The nail-biting, nine-pitch at-bat between Chapman and Bellinger was a preview of all that it would take for the Yankees to excel against the Red Sox in late-game, high-leverage moments. 

That electric showdown will only be turned up a notch in October. 

PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Mason Miller, RHP, San Diego Padres

San Diego’s strikeout machine was ruthless this past week — whiffing 10 of the 13 total batters he faced for an unheard-of 77% strikeout rate dating back to September 8. Miller recorded four hitless relief appearances over 4.1 innings pitched in that span, punctuating his spectacular week with four important outs in the Padres’ 9-6 win over the Rockies on Sunday. 

After stumbling in his second post-deadline relief appearance for the Friars, Miller has since built a dominant stretch of outings that dates back to August 6. The 27-year-old right-hander has not allowed a run in his last 15 appearances and 15.2 innings pitched. Miller has a 58.5% strikeout rate in that span, which leads the major leagues by a long shot. 

Mookie Betts, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Was there ever any doubt that the Dodgers’ eight-time All-Star would recreate his magic at the plate? Betts is back to being a top-10 player in the league after a statement-making week that included four multi-hit performances, two home runs, 10 RBI and seven runs scored. He posted a .462 batting average and 1.325 OPS in that span, with the Dodgers rallying for five wins in six games thanks to Betts’ effort. 

If you needed more convincing that Betts is back, look no further than when the Giants intentionally walked Shohei Ohtani to face the Dodgers shortstop on Saturday. Betts responded by ripping an RBI single to right field and instantly punishing San Francisco for their decision. All of it has been much more Mookie-like, and the Dodgers’ offense is sizzling at exactly the right time. 

Harrison Bader, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies could not have dreamed up a better trade-deadline acquisition than Bader, if only because he made it his personal responsibility to single-handedly pummel the Mets. The former Mets outfielder greeted his old team by hitting .526 (10-for-19) with a home run, three RBI, and four runs scored when the Phillies hosted their division rivals and swept them in a four-game series last week. Bader’s red-hot, menacing performance helped the Phillies bury the Mets in the NL East standings, and the Amazins should be terrified to face the outfielder should these clubs meet again in October. 

LOOKING AHEAD

There is no matchup I’m more excited to see unfold than the Rangers taking on the Astros in an influential three-game series this week. In a repeat of the 2023 ALCS, Texas will try to bully Houston so it can improbably surpass the Astros for the final A.L. wild card spot. The Rangers have right-handers Jack Leiter and Merrill Kelly going on Monday and Tuesday, followed by ace Jacob DeGrom, who has looked like a Cy Young award winner again, in the series finale on Wednesday. They enter Monday two games back of the Astros for a ticket into October.

Deesha Thosar covers Major League Baseball as a reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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