Men’s NCAA Tournament: 7 Teams That Could Earn No. 1 Seeds

What an incredible few weeks this has been in men’s college basketball, where one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory continues building toward what could be an unforgettable NCAA Tournament. 

Earlier this month, teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4 and 5 in the AP poll all lost in the span of four days, with top-ranked Arizona falling twice in the same week after beginning the season unbeaten through its first 23 games. And then No. 2 Houston, which received a first-place vote in this week’s poll, was upended by No. 6 Iowa State after squandering a second-half lead on the road. Chaos reigned atop the sport.

All of which set the stage for an unbelievable pair of games on Saturday when No. 1 Michigan faces No. 3 Duke on a neutral floor in Washington, D.C. and No. 2 Houston hosts No. 4 Arizona — both matchups worthy of the Final Four. By the end of the weekend, there should finally be some clarity surrounding which teams could earn a 1-seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. So here’s a breakdown of the likeliest candidates: 

• Record: 25-1 (15-1 Big Ten)
• Rankings: No. 1 AP, No. 1 NET, No. 1 KenPom, No. 1 Torvik, No. 1 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Gonzaga, Villanova, Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue
• Bad losses: None

By opening a 20-point lead on the road at No. 7 Purdue on Tuesday night and then holding on for a relatively comfortable double-digit victory, Michigan likely moved itself within a whisker of clinching a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament barring an unexpected losing streak down the stretch. Even if the Wolverines fall against No. 3 Duke this weekend in a mouthwatering non-conference tilt, and even if they stumble on the road at No. 10 Illinois later this month, the dominance they’ve shown thus far amid the best start in program history could still be enough for the selection committee to place head coach Dusty May’s group on the top line. 

Michigan is the only team in the country that ranks among the top five nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and 21 of the Wolverines’ 25 total victories this season have come by at least 10 points. This is an elite team at both ends of the floor thanks to May’s shrewd roster construction and the school’s aggressive NIL efforts that, sources say, are at — or very near — the top of college basketball. At this point, the Wolverines have the inside track toward the No. 1 overall seed.

[BIG TEN: 4 Takeaways From Michigan’s Big Ten Win Over Purdue]

• Record: 24-2 (13-1 ACC)
• Rankings: No. 3 AP, No. 2 NET, No. 2 KenPom, No. 5 Torvik, No. 2 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Kansas, Arkansas, Florida, Michigan State, Louisville (x2)
• Bad losses: None

Barring some kind of unexpected, late-season collapse, Duke can all but assure itself of a top seed in the NCAA Tournament by beating No. 1 Michigan in a marquee non-conference game to be played this weekend on a neutral floor. Even if Saturday’s showdown with the Wolverines goes awry, there’s a strong chance Duke has already done enough to land somewhere on the bracket’s top line. 

The Blue Devils are one of only three teams to rank among the top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom, with such a balanced approach producing the fifth-best scoring margin in the country at plus-19.8 points per game. A trio of early season, non-conference victories over Kansas, Arkansas and Florida added some necessary oomph to Duke’s résumé in a year when the ACC only produced three teams in the latest AP poll, one of which Duke still hasn’t faced (Virginia). Adding another such win over Michigan could be pivotal now that the regular-season finale against rival North Carolina, which defeated Duke earlier this month, might be played without injured Tar Heels star Caleb Wilson. 

• Record: 23-2 (10-2 Big 12)
• Rankings: No. 4 AP, No. 3 NET, No. 3 KenPom, No. 3 Torvik, No. 3 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Florida, UConn, Alabama, BYU, San Diego State
• Bad losses: None

It took until the second week of February before someone finally cracked what looked like an impregnable Arizona squad under fifth-year head coach Tommy Lloyd. By the time the Wildcats finally suffered their first loss on the road at then-No. 9 Kansas earlier this month, they’d already compiled a ledger that included six wins over ranked opponents and the sixth-best scoring margin in the country at plus-19.6 points per game. 

But now Arizona has dropped the first two games in a brutal finishing stretch that includes forthcoming dates with No. 23 BYU (home), No. 2 Houston (away), No. 8 Kansas (home) and No. 6 Iowa State (home). And while that collection of opponents represents more than enough talent for the Wildcats to cement themselves as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a few more high-level wins, it’s also a necessary proving ground for a team that has — at least thus far — played the Big 12’s easiest conference slate, according to KenPom. There might be more potential seeding variance for the Wildcats than any team on this list depending on how they respond in the coming weeks. 

• Record: 24-2 (14-1 Big East)
• Rankings: No. 5 AP, No. 10 NET, No. 9 KenPom, No. 9 Torvik, No. 7 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida, Villanova
• Bad losses: None

An interesting campaign for the Huskies and head coach Dan Hurley seems to be unfolding in two distinct parts as the regular season nears its conclusion. First came an incredibly difficult non-conference slate in which UConn established itself among the best teams in the country by scoring neutral-site wins over BYU, Illinois and Florida, plus a true road win over Kansas. That the Huskies only lost to Arizona by four points at home on a night when starters Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins were unavailable due to injury highlighted the team’s Final Four potential. 

Next came a plunge into Big East play that began with 12 consecutive victories and 14 wins out of 15 overall entering Wednesday’s matchup with Creighton. But seven of those wins have come by 10 points or fewer, including two in overtime, and that has invited questions about UConn’s ceiling given that this is unquestionably a down year for the conference. Getting out-muscled and outworked by then-No. 22 St. John’s on Feb. 6 exposed some of the Huskies’ flaws. They’ll need a better showing in the rematch against St. John’s at home on Feb. 25. 

[WOMEN’S COLLEGE HOOPS SPOTLIGHT: Dawn Staley, South Carolina Embrace Villain Role]

• Record: 23-3 (10-3 Big 12)
• Rankings: No. 6 AP, No. 5 NET, No. 7 KenPom, No. 7 Torvik, No. 9 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: St. John’s, Purdue, Kansas, Houston
• Bad losses: Cincinnati, TCU

The Cyclones are a fascinating case study whose candidacy for a potential top-line seed rocketed to another level with their come-from-behind home victory over No. 2 Houston earlier this week. Few teams around the country, if any, can match the top-end wins Iowa State has compiled over then-No. 14 St. John’s, then-No. 1 Purdue, then-No. 9 Kansas and the Cougars. At its best, head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s team can unleash a hailstorm from beyond the arc (fourth nationally in 3-point percentage) and pair it with a defense that ranks eighth in the country for efficiency. 

But of all the programs in consideration for No. 1 seeds, the Cyclones are saddled with arguably the worst loss to Cincinnati, a team that is 14-12 overall and sits below .500 in conference play. Remaining games against No. 23 BYU and No. 4 Arizona — not to mention another ranked opponent or two in the Big 12 Tournament — mean there are still plenty of chances for Iowa State to distance itself from that ugly result and secure a top seed. 

• Record: 21-5 (12-3 Big Ten)
• Rankings: No. 10 AP, No. 4 NET, No. 5 KenPom, No. 6 Torvik, No. 6 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Purdue, Nebraska
• Bad losses: None

There’s no question that the biggest hurdle standing between Illinois and a potential top-line seed in the NCAA Tournament is a massive home game against No. 1 Michigan on Feb. 27, the result of which could also have a significant impact on the Big Ten title race. A modest collection of opponents on either side of that matchup — USC, UCLA, Oregon and Maryland — make it unlikely the Illini will stumble before the conference tournament, aside from a potential defeat to the Wolverines. 

Head coach Brad Underwood and his team have compiled an interesting résumé that is devoid of damaging losses but only includes one non-conference victory over an opponent ranked in the latest AP poll (No. 13 Texas Tech). They fell short in other high-profile, neutral-site matchups against Alabama and UConn. Yet, when it comes to some of the advanced metrics, Illinois is as impressive as any team in the country — especially considering the long-term injury to point guard Kylan Boswell, who recently returned to the lineup. The Illini lead the nation in offensive efficiency by nearly three full points per 100 possessions, according to KenPom. 

• Record: 23-3 (11-2 Big 12)
• Rankings: No. 2 AP, No. 6 NET, No. 4 KenPom, No. 2 Torvik, No. 4 EvanMiya.com
• Best wins: Arkansas, Texas Tech, BYU
• Bad losses: None

Houston is another team for which the eye test and advanced metrics tell a better story than the résumé itself. Aside from an impressive victory over then-No. 14 Arkansas on Dec. 20, none of the Cougars’ noteworthy non-conference matchups aged particularly well, with teams like Auburn, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Florida State all crumbling to varying degrees. All told, Houston’s non-conference slate ranked 157th nationally, which is the second-lowest of any team on this list behind only Iowa State (270th). 

Still, head coach Kelvin Sampson presides over a group that now ranks ninth nationally in offensive efficiency and seventh nationally in defensive efficiency, placing Houston among the top 25 in both categories for an incredible eighth consecutive season. This year’s squad boasts more scoring punch from freshman phenom Kingston Flemings (16.6 points, 5.3 assists per game), while maintaining Sampson’s trademark tenacity on the defensive end. A loss to Iowa State earlier this week heaps additional pressure on the Cougars to perform well in subsequent games against Arizona (Feb. 21) and Kansas (Feb. 23) that will be closely watched by bracketologists.