Sunday’s loss to the Golden State Valkyries was a setback the Indiana Fever couldn’t afford. From the opening quarter, the offense faltered, three-point shooters couldn’t find their rhythm, and the game slipped away quickly. A 75-63 defeat left Indiana with a 21-19 record and even more pressure heading into the final stretch.
Later that day, Atlanta’s dominant win over the Connecticut Sun sealed another blow to Indiana’s playoff ambitions. The Dream improved to 26-14, eliminating any hope the Fever had of overtaking them in the standings. Finishing fourth or fifth is now almost entirely off the table.
Still, the Fever aren’t out of the picture-far from it. With four regular-season games left, their postseason hopes remain in their hands. Two upcoming games are against teams with no playoff hopes (Washington and Chicago), while the final matchup is against the Minnesota Lynx, who may be resting starters with their top seed secure.
According to ESPN’s 2025 WNBA Power Index, Indiana’s postseason odds are strong. Following their win over Seattle on August 26, the Fever had a 96.2% chance of reaching the playoffs. That number has since increased to 97.4%, even after Sunday’s loss.
One more win might be enough-but avoiding the eighth seed is key
Despite sitting in a crowded playoff race, Indiana’s chances of sneaking in are high. ESPN analyst Robin Lundberg believes their recent win over the Sparks essentially secured their spot.
“I’ll look at the people who keep wondering if they’re going to make the playoffs or not. They’re going to make the playoffs. That’s really not up for debate,” Lundberg said. “The ESPN Power Index ranked the Fever. They’re now down to a 97.4 percent chance to make the playoffs after last night.”
But getting into the playoffs is only half the battle. The bigger concern is where Indiana finishes. Sitting in the eighth spot would mean a brutal first-round matchup against Minnesota – a team few want to face early.
“You don’t want to be in that eighth spot, which they currently occupy, because that means a date with the Minnesota Lynx, which means the season probably goes bye-bye,” Lundberg warned.
Indiana’s path forward is relatively favorable. Among the teams battling for the final three playoff spots-Golden State, Indiana, and Los Angeles – the Fever have the softest schedule left, based on Tankathon’s difficulty rankings. Seattle, by contrast, still has to face both the Valkyries and the Sparks, meaning there’s potential for a shakeup.
But there’s one major uncertainty hanging over Indiana’s postseason chances: the status of Caitlin Clark.
Caitlin Clark’s absence fuels growing questions around the Fever
Clark has been out with injury, and although she’s been seen participating in shootaround, there’s still no confirmation she’s returned to full practice. Head coach Stephanie White previously stated that Clark would need to be evaluated in practice before being cleared to play. That hasn’t happened yet-or at least, hasn’t been made public.
“There’s also the continued question about Caitlin Clark‘s potential return status,” Lundberg noted. “Stephanie White had said she needed to see her in practice in order to clear her for a return. We’ve seen her in shootaround, but we don’t know if she’s practiced, and nobody’s asked. So that question remains unanswered, and they’re running out of runway to ramp Caitlin Clark up.”
With time running out, frustration is building-not just among fans eager to see Clark back, but also around White‘s leadership. The head coach, once praised for her return to the team, is now facing criticism for both injury management and game-day decisions.
Still, Lundberg came to her defense, pointing out the team’s overall improvement from last season.
“The Fever has a better record this year than they did last year. And that’s with Caitlin Clark missing essentially the entire season… They are still top six in the league in net rating. They’re seventh in defense and fourth in offense… Reality defends the coach of the Fever,” he said.
Even with key players sidelined, Indiana has managed to stay competitive. That alone speaks to a level of resilience that deserves recognition.
But the reality is clear: the Fever‘s postseason hopes may depend on more than just favorable matchups and strength of schedule. If Caitlin Clark doesn’t return in time-or isn’t fully ready-the team’s playoff run could be cut short before it ever begins.
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