How the Commanders’ aggressiveness on fourth down embodies their revival

TAMPA, Fla. — On their opening drive Sunday night, the Washington Commanders marched down the field, stalled and faced a fourth-and-2 at the Tampa Bay 20-yard line. They went for it and threw incomplete, turning the ball over on downs but setting the tone for the rest of the night.

For most of the NFL, most of the time, fourth down is a punting down, a concession of failure, but not for the Commanders. They went 20-for-23 on fourth downs in the regular season, an 87% conversion rate that not only led the NFL but stands as the all-time best success rate for any NFL team with more than 10 fourth-down attempts in a season.

And on Sunday night, they lived and died on fourth down, with conversions leading to both their touchdowns in a 23-20 win, led by their unflappable rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels.

“We’re going to be bold, but not reckless,” coach Dan Quinn said of his team’s confidence in going for it — and succeeding — as often as it does. “I thnk that’s who we are, the whole season. When you do get stopped early, you just have to stay the course, knowing that, Hey, keep your chin tucked and keep swinging, knowing that this is going to be a game that’s going to go all the way down to the end.”

Washington’s second drive was an absolute grind, a 17-play, 92-yard slog that took more than nine minutes off the clock. The Commanders faced a fourth-and-1 at the Bucs’ 23, and of course, they went for it, with running back Austin Ekeler converting with a 2-yard run. On third-and-goal, Daniels threw a touchdown to receiver Dyami Brown for a 7-3 lead.

Twice, the Commanders settled for field goals for a 13-10 lead, and in the fourth quarter, trailing 17-13, their fourth-down gambling cost them, as Washington went for it on fourth-and-goal from the 3, only to have Daniels throw incomplete.

The Bucs had the ball and the lead, but committed the game’s only turnover, botching the handoff on a jet sweep to set the Commanders up at the Tampa Bay 13-yard line. Again, the defense got a stop on third down, and again, Quinn didn’t hesitate to go for it on fourth-and-2 at the 5-yard line. This time, Daniels found receiver Terry McLaurin for a touchdown and the lead.

“Fourth down is something DQ has been aggressive with all season,” McLaurin said. “For a good part of the season, we were 100 percent conversions. We know if it’s fourth and manageable, DQ’s going to give us a chance to execute. When we needed to make the play the most, we did, and that gives us confidence going forward.”

Quinn and Bucs coach Todd Bowles are both defensive coaches, which can sometimes make them conservative in their offensive aggressiveness. Tampa Bay had a higher fourth-down success rate than its opponents this year, but the Bucs’ opponents went for it on fourth down more than twice as often, converting a league-high 19 times.

Tampa Bay had its chances to go for it Sunday. On the opening drive, on fourth-and-7, the Bucs hit a 42-yard field goal, but an offsides penalty gave them a chance to go for it on fourth-and-2. They kept the points on the board, and in the fourth quarter, they had another difficult decision. With second-and-1 at the Washington 12, they missed twice, setting up a fourth-and-3 from the 14 with 4:45 left. Bowles took the safe option and chose a field goal to tie the game with 4:41 left.

That put the ball in Daniels’ hands, and the Bucs never got it back, with Washington running the clock down and winning on a banked-in field goal as time expired. That kick was set up by a third-and-2 conversion when Daniels scrambled for a first down, allowing the Commanders to run the clock down to a final play.

Daniels said the mentality on fourth down has been the same all year: If the coaches have the confidence to give them the chance, they should have the same optimism about being able to convert on that opportunity.

“Obviously, they’re confident in us to get the first down, so I’m confident in the guys to go out there and block, make plays and move the chains,” he said.

The rookie QB has been phenomenal all season, but especially on fourth down. That he threw an incompletion on fourth down Sunday was a first. In the regular season, he was 8-for-8 passing on fourth-down plays, with seven first downs. Running the ball, he had nine carries for 85 yards with eight conversions, so he was 15-for-17 on fourth downs, a success rate even better than the team’s overall 87%.

Washington’s three fourth-down conversions Sunday matched the most in NFL history in a playoff win. The 2022 Eagles, 2018 Chiefs and 2011 Saints did the same, but all were in victories of 17 points or more, nothing like the Commanders, who needed every conversion in a three-point, last-second win over the Bucs.

Washington now moves on to face top-seeded Detroit, where Lions coach Dan Campbell is also known for his confidence on fourth down. Detroit went for it on fourth down 10 times more than Washington did this year, going 22-for-33 on the way to a 15-2 record. But even though the Lions go for it more, the Commanders have been more successful. Quinn said his team has been uniquely qualified to earn his confidence on fourth down, all season long.

“It’s something that is part of our game,” he said. “A lot has to do with 5 (Daniels). Sometimes he can make a play that … was not the huddle call, by using his legs and doing that. Today, early on, we got stopped on our first one, but I wasn’t going to stop us in that spot.”

He rarely does.

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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