Ralph Vacchiano
NFL Reporter
Every year a half dozen teams, maybe more, enter the NFL Draft searching for a franchise quarterback. They feel desperate to find one. They grow attached to specific players. And they’ll often feel that for the right guy there’s no price too high to pay.
It doesn’t matter to them, in that emotional moment, that they only have a 36.1 percent chance of being right.
For all the attention paid to first-round quarterbacks in every draft, it turns out their success isn’t even a coin-flip proposition. In 20 years of NFL Drafts, from 2002 through 2023, a startling 39 of the 61 quarterbacks picked in the first round (63.9 percent) were more of a “miss” than a “hit.” That included “misses” on more than half of the quarterbacks picked in the top 10 (21 of 37, 56.8 percent) — a startling rebuke of the supposed best of the best.
It’s why teams are so quick to hold on to any young quarterback that shows even a glimmer of promise, and why so many teams feel like they’re stuck in a never-ending search. Franchise quarterbacks, as it turns out, are incredibly hard to find. And often the best prospects aren’t always what they seem.
It’s not an exact science, of course. The definition of “hit” for this particular study isn’t etched in stone. The basic parameter was whether the quarterback became the “franchise player” that the team expected. Did he turn them into a contender? Did he become a long-term solution to their problem? Was he everything they dreamed he would be?
Remember, teams evaluate quarterbacks differently than other players. They aren’t looking for just good, steady quarterbacks in Round 1. They draft them hoping they’ll become bonafide stars for years to come.
Some did. Some came close. Some were unfortunately undone by injuries. But many others either flamed out far too quickly or never really panned out at all.
Here’s a look at 20 years of first-round quarterbacks — a group that did not include the classes of 2023 and 2024 because, while we might have a good idea on some of them (Jayden Daniels looks like a “hit,” while Anthony Richardson is trending towards “miss”) it’s just too soon to get a full picture of anyone from those years. There was plenty of evidence without them, in a study broken down into three parts — the top (picks 1-10), middle (11-22) and bottom (23-32) of the first round.
What it shows is that, while it’s nice to dream about a first-round quarterback saving a franchise, the reality is that more often than not, it doesn’t work out so well:
TOP 10
Hits: 16
Misses: 21
Hit %: 43.2
Trevor Lawrence: HIT
1st overall, 2021, Jacksonville Jaguars
No doubt he’s taken a step back in the last two seasons, but his talent is undeniable and the Jaguars were happy enough to give him a five-year, $275 million contract with $142 million guaranteed before last season. Check back on this in a year or two, though.
Zach Wilson: MISS
2nd overall, 2021, New York Jets
A complete disaster of a pick. He made 33 starts over three years, won 12 games and threw 25 interceptions.
Trey Lance: MISS
3rd overall, 2021, San Francisco 49ers
He was actually going to be the 49ers’ starter in 2022, but he was doomed by an early ankle injury and the ensuing success of Brock Purdy. Now he might be on his way to the CFL.
Joe Burrow: HIT
1st overall, 2020, Cincinnati Bengals
In five seasons, he’s taken the Bengals to a Super Bowl and two AFC Championship Games. Plus he’s now a two-time NFL Comeback Player of the Year and is coming off a 4,918-yard, 43-touchdown season.
Tua Tagovailoa: HIT
5th overall, 2020, Miami Dolphins
The concussions are scary and his durability is in question, but when he’s healthy he’s been remarkable. Two years ago — his only full season — he threw for 4,624 yards as Miami won 11 games.
Justin Herbert: HIT
6th overall, 2020, Los Angeles Chargers
No question he’s one of the NFL’s best young arms and his accuracy is uncanny (10 interceptions in 30 games over the last two seasons). He does still need to prove he can win a big game, though.
Kyler Murray: HIT
1st overall, 2019, Arizona Cardinals
Midway through his third season, he was starting to look like an elite QB and one of the NFL’s most dangerous weapons. Then the injuries hit. Last season he finally began returning to form.
Daniel Jones: MISS
6th overall, 2019, New York Giants
He was good as a rookie, but never quite lived up to his promise after that. The Giants thought he was about to in 2022, but a series of injuries and poor play doomed his time in New York.
Baker Mayfield: MISS
1st overall, 2018, Cleveland Browns
He looks so much better now in Tampa. But four years in Cleveland led to only one winning season and an alarming 56 interceptions. He was clearly regressing when the Browns traded him to Carolina in 2022.
Sam Darnold: MISS
3rd overall, 2018, New York Jets
He has found life after the Jets in Minnesota and got a big contract in Seattle, but it doesn’t change what a disaster he was in New York. He threw 39 interceptions in 38 games and went 13-25 over three seasons.
Josh Allen: HIT
7th overall, 2018, Buffalo Bills
The reigning MVP has turned the Bills into perennial contenders, even though he can’t quite get them over the hump. One of the NFL’s best, it’s easy to forget many scouts were skeptical of his wild arm coming out of Wyoming.
Josh Rosen: MISS
10th overall, 2018, Arizona Cardinals
The Cards dumped him after one miserable season in Arizona. The Dolphins gave him three starts the next season, but after no wins and just one TD pass, that was it.
Mitch Trubisky: MISS
2nd overall, 2017, Chicago Bears
He wasn’t actually terrible in Chicago, going 29-21 and throwing 64 touchdowns and 37 interceptions. But he wasn’t good enough for the second overall pick, so the Bears moved on and he’s bounced around the NFL as a backup ever since.
Patrick Mahomes: HIT
10th overall, 2017, Kansas City Chiefs
A two-time MVP who has led the Chiefs to three straight Super Bowls, seven straight AFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles in the last six seasons. So yeah, it was a good move by the Chiefs to trade up and get him.
Jared Goff: HIT
1st overall, 2016, Los Angeles Rams
So underappreciated, but he’s clearly a winner. He took the Rams to the Super Bowl in his second season and has had the Lions knocking on the door the last two years.
Carson Wentz: MISS
2nd overall, 2016, Philadelphia Eagles
A hard-luck miss, because for a while he looked like a big hit. He had an outstanding, MVP-caliber season in Year 2, starting the Eagles’ Super Bowl season 11-2 before he got hurt. Two years later, he was the Comeback Player of the Year. But then it all fell apart.
Jameis Winston: MISS
1st overall, 2015, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He has an incredible arm, but didn’t do a lot of winning Tampa mostly because he threw a lot of interceptions — 88 in five seasons (70 games), including 30 in his last season with the Bucs.
Marcus Mariota: MISS
2nd overall, 2015, Tennessee Titans
His second year with the Titans looked promising with 26 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. But it was all downhill after that. In Year 3 and 4 he threw 24 TDs and 23 INTs.
Blake Bortles: MISS
3rd overall, 2014, Jacksonville Jaguars
He lasted five years as a starter, but was mostly undone by 75 interceptions in 78 games. He had one shining moment in 2017 when he took the Jags to the AFC title game, but that was an anomaly.
Andrew Luck: HIT
1st overall, 2012, Indianapolis Colts
He quickly became one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks and helped ease the pain from the Colts moving on from Peyton Manning. He had a seemingly unlimited ceiling when he abruptly retired at age 29.
Robert Griffin III: MISS
2nd overall, 2012, Washington Football Team
There was so much excitement in D.C. after his dynamic rookie season, when he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. But he suffered a knee injury late in that season and didn’t look the same after that.
Ryan Tannehill: HIT
8th overall, 2012, Miami Dolphins
A borderline “hit” who won’t go down in history as a great one, but he was really good for two franchises (Dolphins, Titans) over an 11-year career. Had more success in Tennessee, but got a lot out of some bad teams in Miami for six years.
Cam Newton: HIT
1st overall, 2011, Carolina Panthers
A Carolina legend who took the Panthers to their second Super Bowl and to the playoffs four times. Sometimes put up big passing numbers, but was always one of the best two-way QBs in the league.
Jake Locker: MISS
8th overall, 2011, Tennessee Titans
He never had much of a shot because of a series of injuries, starting with a shoulder injury that limited him to 11 starts in his second season. He ended up retiring after four years in the league.
Blaine Gabbert: MISS
10th overall, 2011, Jacksonville Jaguars
He started 24 games over his first two seasons, but won only five of them. He was good enough to last 12 years in the NFL with six different teams, but it was mostly as a backup.
Sam Bradford: MISS
1st overall, 2010, St. Louis Rams
He was better than people remember, playing for a bad franchise, but not good enough to justify the top pick. His best season was actually in Minnesota in 2016 when he threw for 3,877 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. But it was right back to the bench after that.
Matthew Stafford: HIT
1st overall, 2009, Detroit Lions
Perhaos the most underrated quarterback of all time, and one of the most prolific of his generation. He’s thrown for nearly 60,000 yards and almost 400 touchdowns in 16 seasons and won a Super Bowl championship.
Mark Sanchez: MISS
5th overall, 2009, New York Jets
The Jets made the AFC Championship in each of his first two seasons, but he was carried there by their defense. In four years with the Jets, he completed just 55.1 percent of his passes and threw a ridiculous 69 interceptions.
Matt Ryan: HIT
3rd overall, 2008, Atlanta Falcons
In 15 seasons, he threw for 62,792 yards, twice as many TDs as interceptions (381-183), won an MVP and nearly won a Super Bowl. He’s up there with Stafford in the massively underrated category.
JaMarcus Russell: MISS
1st overall, 2007, Oakland Raiders
Widely considered one of the biggest draft busts of all time. He was one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks for his three seasons and constantly battled weight issues before the Raiders finally gave up and cut him.
Vince Young: MISS
3rd overall, 2006, Tennessee Titans
He’s remembered as worse than he actually was. Won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award (2006) and Comeback Player award (2009) and his teams went 31-19. But injuries took their toll and so did his accuracy issues. He threw 46 touchdowns and 51 interceptions in his career.
Matt Leinart: MISS
10th overall, 2006, Arizona Cardinals
Injuries destroyed the start of his career. It also didn’t help that every time his backup (Kurt Warner) played in his absence, the Cards were a much better team.
Alex Smith: MISS
1st overall, 2005, San Francisco 49ers
Another hard-luck miss, considering he had asolid, 16-year career. He also led the 49ers to an NFC Championship Game and got them started on a Super Bowl run. But injuries kept him from ever realizing the promise he had as the No. 1 overall pick.
Eli Manning: HIT
1st overall, 2004, San Diego Chargers (Traded to New York Giants)
Author of two of the greatest Super Bowl upsets of all-time, owner of a remarkable Iron Man streak, and holder of most of the Giants’ passing records. A borderline Hall of Famer and one of the greatest football players in New York history.
Philip Rivers: HIT
4th overall, 2004, New York Giants (Traded to San Diego Chargers)
Probably the greatest player in Chargers history, and for a while turned that lost franchise into a perennial contender. Spent 16 seasons there and threw for 59,271 yards, 397 touchdowns and just 198 interceptions.
Carson Palmer: HIT
1st overall, 2003, Cincinnati Bengals
He got a lot out of some bad teams in seven years in Cincinnati. Might’ve gotten more if it weren’t for a gruesome leg injury on his first pass of the 2005 playoffs.
Byron Leftwich: MISS
7th overall, 2003, Jacksonville Jaguars
He spent 3.5 years as an incredibly mediocre starter on four very mediocre Jaguars teams. Never threw for more than 3,000 yards or 15 touchdowns in a season.
MIDDLE 12 (11-22)
Hits: 3
Misses: 14
Hit %: 17.6
Kenny Pickett: MISS
20th overall, 2022, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers dumped him after two years and 24 starts, which is unusually quick for a first-round pick and pretty telling. He did go 14-10, but threw just 13 touchdowns with 13 interceptions.
Justin Fields: MISS
11th overall, 2022, Chicago Bears
There are still scouts that drool over his talent, and the Jets are hoping to harness it. He’s clearly a dangerous runner (he ran for 1,143 yards in 2022). But he’s never been a good passer and proved to be unable to elevate his teams.
Mac Jones: MISS
15th overall, 2021, New England Patriots
After nearly being drafted third overall by the 49ers, he dropped to the Patriots and looked so good as a rookie (3,801 yards, 22 TDs, 13 interceptions, a 10-7 record). But it was a huge spiral from there for Tom Brady’s heir.
Dwayne Haskins: MISS
15th overall, 2019, Washington Redskins
They loved him so much in D.C. at first that they unretired Joe Theismann’s No. 7 for him. But poor performance and a much-criticized work ethic doomed his career. He never got a chance for a comeback either, dying tragically at the age of 24.
Deshaun Watson: HIT
12th overall, 2017, Houston Texans
He might forever remembered for getting the worst contract in NFL history from the Browns, but he was a legit star in Houston. He went to three Pro Bowls in four seasons and threw for a ridiculous 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions in Year 4 before off-field issues and injuries destroyed what he built. The trade package package the Texans got for him, though, is an all-time great haul.
Johnny Manziel: MISS
22nd overall, 2014, Cleveland Browns
A polarizing choice before the draft for his character and antics, his play wasn’t much better. He made just eight starts over two years for the Browns, who couldn’t wait to push him out the NFL door.
E.J. Manuel: MISS
16th overall, 2013, Buffalo Bills
After an underwhelming rookie season was hampered by injuries, he lost his job to Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and even Cardale Jones over the next three seasons. In all, he started just 17 games in four years.
Brandon Weeden: MISS
22nd overall, 2012, Cleveland Browns
He was 28 when he was drafted — the oldest player ever drafted in the first round. And it showed. He was actually OK as a rookie, but lost his job to Jason Campbell and Byron Hoyer the next year and was cut.
Christian Ponder: MISS
12th overall, 2011, Minnesota Vikings
There was a lot of excitement after he threw for 2,935 yards, 18 TDs and 12 interceptions and led the Vikings to a 10-6 record in his second season. But after an 0-3 start in Year 3, they gave up on him.
Josh Freeman: MISS
17th overall, 2009, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He threw for a lot of yards and touchdowns in his 4-plus seasons in Tampa. But also a lot of interceptions — 66 in his 59 starts before they cut him in Year 5.
Joe Flacco: HIT
18th overall, 2008, Baltimore Ravens
The kid with the big arm from tiny Delaware became a Baltimore icon. He spent 11 years with the Ravens, throwing for 38,245 yards, leading them to seven playoff berths, three AFC Championship Games, and winning one Super Bowl.
Brady Quinn: MISS
22nd overall, 2007, Cleveland Browns
In three years with the Browns he could never really beat out Derek Anderson for the starting job. He ended up starting just 12 games, winning only three.
Jay Cutler: MISS
11th overall, 2006, Denver Broncos
He had a huge, but somewhat uncontrollable arm, which is why even after throwing for 4,526 yards in his third season (with 18 interceptions), the Broncos traded him to the Bears for QB Kyle Orton and two first-round picks. He had a decent career in Chicago, but those picks were a constant problem.
Ben Roethlisberger: HIT
11th overall, 2004, Pittsburgh Steelers
A future Hall of Famer who won two Super Bowls and played in another, went to six Pro Bowls, and didn’t play on a single losing team in his 18-year career.
J.P. Losman: MISS
22nd overall, 2004, Buffalo Bills
He broke his leg in his first NFL training camp when a teammate (Troy Vincent) ran into him, and he was seemingly never the same. He did make 33 starts in five years in Buffalo, but the Bills won only 10.
Kyle Boller: MISS
19th overall, 2003, Baltimore Ravens
Showed promise as a rookie before hurting his thigh in Week 9, and there were high hopes in Year 3 before he was sidelined with turf toe. The next year, the Ravens gave up hoping and traded for veteran Steve Smith.
Rex Grossman: MISS
22nd overall, 2003, Chicago Bears
After three injury-filled years to start his career, he went to the Super Bowl in his first full year as a starter. But he was carried there by his teammates. And in the Super Bowl XLI loss, he threw two interceptions and fumbled twice.
BOTTOM 10 (23-32)
Hits: 3
Misses: 4
Hit %: 42.9
Jordan Love: HIT
26th overall, 2020, Green Bay Packers
After two years of sitting behind Aaron Rodgers, he proved to be worth the wait. He’s thrown 57 touchdowns with just 22 interceptions the last two seasons and earned a four-year, $220 million deal.
Lamar Jackson: HIT
32nd overall, 2018, Baltimore Ravens
Has there ever been a better last pick of the first round? Two MVPs already, and he probably should’ve won again last year when he threw for 4,172 yards with 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’s the most dangerous quarterback in the game.
Paxton Lynch: MISS
26th overall, 2016, Denver Broncos
Injuries didn’t help, but he also couldn’t beat out Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler or Case Keenum. He was cut in Week 1 of his third season after making just four starts in two years.
Teddy Bridgewater: MISS
32nd overall, 2014, Minnesota Vikings
He might have been on his way to “hit” status before he suffered what was described as a “horrible, grotesque” leg injury in training camp before his third season. He missed most of the next two years before the Vikings let him go.
Tim Tebow: MISS
25th overall, 2010, Denver Broncos
He did go 7-4 as a starter in his second season and won a playoff game in miraculous fashion. But his body of work in three seasons was generally not good and he’s one of the most mocked quarterbacks in NFL history.
Aaron Rodgers: HIT
24th overall, 2006, Green Bay Packers
He’s a four-time MVP, a 10-time Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl champion, and put up legendary numbers over 18 years with the Packers (59,055 yards, 475 touchdowns, 105 interceptions). He’s clearly one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.
Jason Campbell: MISS
25th overall, 2006, Washington Redskins
By Washington standards he wasn’t terrible, throwing for 10,860 yards, 55 touchdowns and 38 interceptions over four seasons. But his record was an unsustainable 20-32.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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