Does spending big in NFL free agency work? Here’s what the past 10 years say

When the clock strikes noon ET on Monday, hope will spring eternal for 32 NFL fan bases, as they wait for their team to make splashy moves in NFL free agency.

In the past few offseasons, there have been several teams that have spent at least $200 million in free agency, trying to bolster their roster with the goal of reaching the playoffs and beyond. There is a set salary cap for NFL teams every year, but not every team reaches that limit; this year it’s $279.2 million. Teams with more offseason money may have restructured a current player’s contract or have unused cap space from the season prior (teams are required to spend 89% of the cap per year minimum and any unused cap space rolls over to the next year).

That said, does spending a lot of money actually work? 

Let’s take a look at the teams that have spent the most money in free agency over the past 10 years, via Spotrac.

Richest contracts: G Robert Hunt (five years, $100 million), G Damien Lewis (four years, $53 million)

2024 record: 5-12 (three-win increase)

After finishing with the league’s worst record in 2023 and no first-round pick to show for it, the Panthers turned to free agency to try to fix their problems. It worked out a bit, increasing their win total by three and playing a bit more respectable football down the stretch of the 2024 season.

Unlike some other teams on this list, Carolina didn’t hand out many lucrative contracts. Hunt’s and Lewis’ deals were the only ones that eclipsed the $50-million mark in total money, as the Panthers looked to improve their offensive line in front of second-year quarterback Bryce Young. As a result, the Panthers went from 30th in sacks allowed to 11th.

Next top spenders in 2024: Atlanta Falcons ($259.62 million), Tennessee Titans ($238.75 million)

Richest contracts: OT Mike McGlinchey (five years, $87.5 million), G Ben Powers (four years, $52 million), DE Zach Allen (three years, $47.5 million)

2023 record: 8-9 (three-win increase)

Head coach Sean Payton overhauled the Broncos’ roster in his first offseason in Denver, spending big money on the trenches following a lousy 5-12 year in 2022. Quarterback Russell Wilson did play better in his second season in Denver, but it wasn’t good enough to help him get a third year in the Mile High City. The offensive line additions marginally improved Wilson’s protection as well, going from 32nd to 27th in sacks allowed that year. 

Defensively, though, Denver might have gotten one of the best value contracts that offseason with Allen. The defensive end was named second-team All-Pro in 2024, recording 8.5 sacks and an NFL-high 40 QB hits — all while many other top-end defensive linemen and edge rushers are earning deals upward of $30 million per year. He certainly was a big reason why the Broncos made the playoffs in 2024. 

Next top spenders in 2023: New Orleans Saints ($219.59 million), Falcons ($218.4 million)

Richest contracts: WR Christian Kirk (four years, $72 million), G Brandon Scherff (three years, $49.5 million), CB Darious Williams (three years, $30 million), LB Foye Oluokun (three years, $45 million)

2022 record: 9-8 (six-win increase)

After an embarrassing 3-14 season in 2021, the Jaguars sought to make life easier for QB Trevor Lawrence in his second year in the league. The signing of Kirk, which was the richest for a wide receiver in NFL history at the time, paid off immediately when he brought in 84 receptions for 1,103 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022. Scherff also helped the Jaguars finish in the top five in the fewest sacks allowed that year. 

Those additions spearheaded a dramatic one-year transformation for the Jaguars, who won the AFC South and a playoff game, but they weren’t able to keep the momentum going. They missed the playoffs in the following two years and traded Kirk in a cap-clearing move ahead of free agency this year. 

Next top spenders in 2022: Buffalo Bills ($191.57 million), New York Jets ($177 million)

Richest contracts: LB Matthew Judon (four years, $56 million), TE Jonnu Smith (four years, $50 million), TE Hunter Henry (three years, $37.5 million), WR Nelson Agholor (two years, $26 million), S Jalen Mills (four years, $24 million)

2021 record: 10-7 (three-win increase)

The Patriots are set to have the most cap space in the league when free agency opens on Monday. Their offseason in 2021 can serve as cautious optimism. Then-head coach Bill Belichick and New England spent the most money in free agency in 2021, making several transactions to round out the roster after missing the playoffs for the first time in 12 years. Many of those moves, along with a solid rookie season from QB Mac Jones, helped the Patriots win three more games than they did in 2020. They also made the playoffs in 2021 as Judon, Henry and Bourne had standout years. 

However, the contracts they gave out that offseason made it difficult to add more pieces in 2022, and most of the deals the Patriots gave out wound up being duds. They went 8-9 in the following season before two consecutive 4-13 finishes, only getting a one-year bump from their eye-popping offseason.

Next top spenders in 2021: San Francisco 49ers ($200.99 million), Jaguars ($166.51 million)

Richest contracts: CB Byron Jones (five years, $82.5 million), LB Kyle Van Noy (four years, $51 million), DE Shaq Lawson (three years, $30 million), OL Ereck Flowers (three years, $30 million)

2020 record: 10-6 (five-win increase)

The Dolphins gutted their roster during the 2019 season, which led them to get a top-five pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. With that pick, they selected QB Tua Tagovailoa. A month before drafting their quarterback of the future, the Dolphins replenished their roster with talent via free agency. Miami dished out several deals in 2020, including a pact that made Jones the highest-paid cornerback in the game at the time.

Miami saw a quick turnaround following its pricey offseason, but the players it signed didn’t play major roles. Jones had an aveerage year, recording two interceptions. Van Noy and Lawson weren’t bad, either. However, they were both released after a season. Flowers was also released at the end of the year. Those contracts didn’t hamper the Dolphins too much, though. The Dolphins went 9-8 in 2021 before making the postseason the next two years. 

Next top spenders in 2020: Cincinnati Bengals ($134.79 million), Las Vegas Raiders ($129.31 million)

2019: New York Jets ($204.54 million)

Richest contracts: LB CJ Mosley (five years, $85 million), RB Le’Veon Bell (four years, $52 million), WR Jamison Crowder (three years, $28.5 million)

2019 record: 7-9 record (three-win increase)

The Jets sought to build around QB Sam Darnold as he entered his second season, making a pair of notable signings on offense and another on their defense in 2019. They hit big on one of their major signings but struck out in the other. Mosley’s 2019 season ended after two games, but he was an integral part on one of the league’s top defenses from 2021-23. Bell, meanwhile, rushed for just 3.2 yards per carry and struggled to regain his All-Pro form after sitting out a year in 2018. The signings gave the Jets a brief jolt in 2019, but they had the league’s second-worst record a year later.

Next top spenders in 2019: Green Bay Packers ($185.63 million), Bills ($183.33 million)

Richest contracts: CB Kyle Fuller (four years, $56 million), WR Allen Robinson (three years, $42 million), TE Trey Burton (four years, $32 million), WR Taylor Gabriel (four years, $26 million)

2018 record: 12-4 (seven-win increase)

In a similar theme to other high-spending teams, the Bears looked to maximize their cap situation with Mitch Trubisky entering Year 2 of his rookie contract. They gave their young quarterback weapons while strengthening their defense, matching the Packers’ offer sheet to the transition-tagged Fuller before trading for Khalil Mack later that offseason. 

Those deals propelled the Bears to a division title for the first time in eight years, with Trubisky earning a Pro Bowl nod with the help of Robinson, but another one of their free-agent signings, kicker Cody Parkey, cost them the postseason when he infamously double-doinked the potential game-winning kick in their wild-card round loss. The 2018 season marked the high point of Bears football in recent memory. They haven’t had a winning record since, though they did squeak into the postseason in 2020.

Next top spenders in 2018: Jets ($202.39 million), Titans ($146.07 million)

2017: Jacksonville Jaguars ($148.95 million)

Richest contracts: CB A.J. Bouye (five years, $62.5 million), DT Calais Campbell (four years, $60 million), S Barry Church (four years, $26 million)

2017 record: 10-6 (seven-win increase)

Following some defensive struggles in previous seasons, the Jaguars opted to invest heavily in their defense during the 2017 offseason. That decision paid off. Their defense finished second in the league in yards and points allowed while ranking first in several other defensive categories. That unit led them to the AFC Championship Game, where they were minutes away from a Super Bowl appearance before losing to the Patriots.

Even though Campbell remained one of the league’s best defensive tackles, the signings in Jacksonville didn’t keep the Jaguars as a contender for long. They slowly fell off over the next three seasons, missing the playoffs each year.

Next top spenders in 2017: 49ers ($149.8 million), Bears ($133.11 million)

2016: Jacksonville Jaguars ($230.04 million)

2016 record: 3-13 (two-win decrease)

Richest contracts: DT Malik Jackson (five years, $85.5 million), RB Chris Ivory (five years, $32 million), S Tashaun Gipson (five years, $35.5 million)

A year before spending top-end money on a few top-end defensive players, the Jaguars spent even more money trying to round out the roster while quarterback Blake Bortles was still on his rookie deal. That plan didn’t work out in 2016, with Gus Bradley getting fired late in the year en route to finishing with one of the worst records in football.

Next top spenders in 2016: New York Giants ($213.81 million), Oakland Raiders ($156.13 million)

2015: New York Jets ($182.83 million)

2015 record: 10-6 (six-win increase)

Richest contracts: CB Darrelle Revis (five years, $70 million), CB Antonio Cromartie (four years, $32 million), CB Buster Skrine (four years, $25 million)

The Jets opted to bring back a franchise icon during the 2015 offseason, along with another star player from their franchise’s past, as they remade their secondary. They also traded for wide receiver Brandon Marshall that same offseason, making splashy additions on both sides of the ball. 

Those moves ushered in a drastic turnaround in 2015, when the Jets won 10 games and journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had a career year. However, they lost in the final week of the regular season and missed the playoffs, marking the closest they’ve been to snapping their playoff drought that’s now at 14 seasons.

Next top spenders in 2015: Jaguars ($176.45 million), Dolphins ($155.45 million)

Common trends and takeaways

• Except for the 2016 Jaguars, the team that spent the most money in free agency increased their win total by at least three in the following season.
• However, seven of those eight teams saw their win total decrease in the following season. The 2024 Panthers’ free-agent class is still pending.
• Of the top three spenders in each free agency class, only two (2017 Jaguars and 2019 Packers) reached the conference championship that same year. None reached the Super Bowl that same season.
• Only four of the teams that have spent the most money in free agency have gone on to make the playoffs in the same year over the last 10 seasons.

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