Cooper Flagg is set to hit the ground running in the NBA. The former Duke Blue Devils standout was not only the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft, but he also landed on a Dallas Mavericks squad with championship aspirations. Still, some experts are beginning to doubt his chances of winning Rookie of the Year.
Much has been said about how fortunate Dallas was to secure the first pick in this year’s draft. But Flagg may be even luckier-joining a veteran roster that should ease his transition from college to the pros.
Surrounded by stars like Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, and Naji Marshall, Flagg should have no trouble adapting to NBA life. On paper, that plus his undeniable talent should pave the way to Rookie of the Year honors. Yet several analysts are pushing back on that assumption.
Flagg has a massive challenge ahead
Oddsmakers currently list Flagg as the ROY favorite at -190. But ESPN analyst Kevin Pelton pointed out that history may be working against him.
“The last two American prospects in the same statistical category as Flagg-fellow Duke forward Zion Williamson in 2019 and Anthony Davis in 2012-fell short,” Pelton wrote. “Williamson dealt with injury, while Davis was simply outnumbered by fellow future All-Star Damian Lillard.”
Pelton added that this year’s rookie class has at least three players who could average double figures right away thanks to bigger roles on rebuilding teams: Ace Bailey of the Utah Jazz, Tre Johnson of the Washington Wizards, and Kon Knueppel of the Charlotte Hornets.
Knueppel is Flagg’s biggest threat
Among them, Pelton singled out Knueppel as the most likely challenger.
“Knueppel might have the most ready-made opportunity to thrive,” Pelton explained, noting that the Hornets badly need his perimeter shooting.
With LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller combining for just 74 games last season, Charlotte desperately needs consistency-and Knueppel could provide it. If he gets enough minutes, Pelton believes Knueppel could leapfrog Flagg in the Rookie of the Year race.
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