Commanders Hitting Over Hinges On Jayden Daniels' Sophomore Success

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

This time last summer, Las Vegas bookmakers had plenty of questions about the Washington Commanders — and it made sense why.

The team moved on from veteran head coach Ron Rivera, brought in a brand-new staff and drafted LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick.

Their season win total was set at [O/U] 6.5 games.

All the Commanders did was ride Daniels to a 12-5 record, a road playoff win over the top-seeded Detroit Lions and a berth in the NFC Championship Game against the eventual world champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Washington was two bad quarters away from the Super Bowl.

The question now is, can they run it back?

It’s a polarizing question in the betting markets, where the Commanders are totaled at [O/U] 9.5 wins with prices as low as 2/1 to win the NFC East and 9/1 to win the conference.

They’re also favored (-145) to make the playoffs.

Washington will need Daniels to avoid the ol’ Year 2 regression and it feels paramount that the team successfully navigates wideout Terry McLaurin’s recent trade request. McLaurin has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in five straight seasons, and he caught a career-best 13 touchdowns last year.

“There’s urgency to sign Terry,” a source near the Commanders told me. “He’s their best playmaker and one of the best deep threats in the NFL. They’re trying to build around Daniels the way Baltimore did with Lamar Jackson.”

We’ll see if both sides can reach an agreement.

Daniels is the unquestioned headliner after completing 69% of his passes for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns as a rookie. He rushed for almost 900 yards and added six more scores on the ground, too.

People gush over his instincts and decision-making skills.

“They do a lot of virtual reality drills with him behind closed doors at super speed,” the source continued. “When they challenge him mentally, they get more out of him. They know he’ll be ready to go physically.

“It’s tough to find anyone in that building who thinks last year was a fluke.”

Respect for Daniels is no different among bettors and bookmakers, either. Only Jackson, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have shorter odds to win league MVP at sportsbooks across the United States.

The hype is real.

Jayden Daniels’ 2025 NFL MVP odds

DraftKings: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
BetMGM: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Caesars: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
SuperBook: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
FanDuel: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Circa: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)

I’m hesitant to say the Commanders will match last year’s surprise playoff run and expectations are understandably different when you’re trying to sustain success. But offseason additions like Deebo Samuel, Laremy Tunsil, Von Miller and Javon Kinlaw provide optimism for double-digit victories.

It’ll also help if Washington converts close to 79% of its fourth-down conversions, a success rate that led the league a year ago.

Assuming McLaurin returns to the fold, I like Washington’s Over.

PICK: Commanders (-110) Over 9.5 wins

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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