Breaking Down Texas vs. Ohio State: Matchups, X-Factors, and CFP Stakes

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

RJ Young

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

This isn’t just the top college football game of Week 1. It’s the kind of matchup that makes you cancel plans, silence your phone, and settle in — because you might be watching the national champion.

Two of the sport’s biggest brands — Texas and Ohio State — loaded with NFL talent and Heisman contenders, are set to collide in one of the most anticipated season openers in recent memory.

Everywhere you look, there’s intrigue. A former five-star QB prospect, Julian Sayin, making his first career start on one of the biggest stages in the sport. A Heisman favorite in Arch Manning, who’s only started two games, leading the No. 1-ranked team into the home of the defending national champions. A generational wide receiver talent in Jeremiah Smith, looking to avenge the only quiet game of his career — a one-catch, three-yard performance in last year’s CFP semifinal against Texas. This is a game where the margins are razor-thin — and the implications are enormous.

To break it all down, our writers tackled the key matchups, spotlighted the X-factors, explored the CFP and Heisman stakes — and made their picks.

Let’s get into it.

1. What is the biggest matchup to watch in Ohio State vs. Texas?

RJ Young: Texas’ secondary vs. Jeremiah Smith

Despite a two-touchdown win by Ohio State the last time it squared up with Texas, the Longhorns did not let Jeremiah Smith beat them. Heck, they made sure he touched the ball just one time — for three yards. Texas’ decision to bracket Smith with Longhorn defenders running a virtual triangle around him led to 1-on-1 matchups elsewhere, and former OSU QB Will Howard exploited them, completing 24 of 33 passes for 289 yards with one TD and one INT. 

I’ll be watching to find out if Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski deploys that scheme again on Saturday and if the Buckeyes have another counter. In the CFP, the Longhorns were the only team to hold Smith to fewer than 88 receiving yards and without a TD. That it wasn’t enough to get the win should worry Texas fans.

Michael Cohen: The most fascinating matchup in Saturday’s game involves two people who will never touch the ball and won’t even log a single snap: Texas head coach and playcaller Steve Sarkisian against new Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, the former head coach of the Detroit Lions (2018-20) and longtime Bill Belichick disciple with more than a decade of experience coaching for the New England Patriots (2004-17, 2021-22). 

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day turned heads across the college football landscape in February when he tabbed Patricia, 50, as the unlikely replacement for former defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who bolted shortly after winning the national title to become the highest-paid coordinator in the country at Penn State. Though Patricia had been wildly successful during much of his tenure with the Patriots, which included three Super Bowl victories and six seasons as the team’s defensive coordinator, his standing in the coaching profession had soured following a disastrous two-plus seasons in charge of the Lions and a disappointing stint as the senior defensive assistant/defensive play caller for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023.

That Patricia hadn’t coached at the collegiate level since he was a graduate assistant at Syracuse from 2001-03 made Day’s choice even more unusual. He’s now in charge of a unit that led the country in total defense (254.6 yards per game) and scoring defense (12.9 points per game) last season. In other words, Patricia has incredibly big shoes to fill. 

The first playcaller Patricia will tangle with — Sarkisian — is widely regarded as one of the keenest offensive minds in college football, evidenced by his three national championships as either a quarterbacks coach, offensive coordinator or both across the first two decades of his career. Sarkisian is one of only three Texas coaches in school history to win 10-plus games in back-to-back seasons, joining program legends Mack Brown, who did it every year from 2001-09, and stadium namesake Darrell Royal, who accomplished that feat in 1963-64 and again in 1969-70. Last year’s Longhorns, who reached the College Football Playoff semifinals for a second consecutive season, led the country in big gains with 108 plays of 20-plus yards. And even though Texas lost eight starters on that side of the ball, including its top three pass catchers and four of five offensive linemen, the depth of talent Sarkisian has amassed through four consecutive recruiting classes ranked among the top six nationally should replenish the lineup with relative ease. 

2. Which player could be the X-factor in deciding this game – and why?

Michael: Colin Simmons, edge rusher, Texas. 

A former five-star recruit in the 2024 cycle, Simmons exploded onto the national scene last fall with a remarkable true freshman campaign at Texas. He appeared in all 16 games for the Longhorns and racked up nine sacks (most in the country among freshmen), 14 tackles for loss (most in the country among freshmen) and 46 quarterback pressures (second-most in the country among freshmen). The end result for Simmons was a bouquet of Freshman All-American honors from four different media outlets and the Shaun Alexander National Freshman of the Year award, which had only been given to an edge rusher once before. 

This weekend, Simmons will have an opportunity to pose problems for a retooled Ohio State offensive line that features four new starters from the group that won the national championship, including both offensive tackles. The Buckeyes’ newly anointed left tackle, Austin Siereveld, arrived in Columbus as an interior offensive linemen in the 2023 recruiting cycle and played all 495 of his snaps last season at guard, splitting time between left (307 snaps) and right (188 snaps). His move from guard to tackle was fairly surprising when Day announced it partway through fall camp and might require a few games to take hold. On the other end of the line, Ohio State will likely platoon a pair of transfers in former Minnesota offensive tackle Phillip Daniels (No. 44 transfer, No. 5 OT) and former Rice offensive tackle Ethan Onianwa (No. 102 transfer, No. 13 OT) after their competition continued into the final week of fall camp. 

All of those are matchups that Simmons, who should be among the best edge rushers in the country this season, will likely welcome in his pursuit of quarterback Julian Sayin. 

RJ: Julian Sayin, quarterback, Ohio State. 

Since 2010, quarterbacks making their first career start vs. an AP No. 1-ranked team are 0-16. In fact, the last time a QB making his first career start defeated an AP No. 1-ranked team was when Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh led the Wolverines to victory against No. 1 Miami (FL) on September 8, 1984.

There isn’t a Buckeye fan alive or dead who wouldn’t want to see Sayin end that drought — especially against the team they hate most, and a quarterback with a last name they know all too well. That task now falls to Sayin, who’s been given a simple directive from head coach Ryan Day:

“Just win. Find a way to win.”

3. How does this game impact College Football Playoff seeding – or even Heisman campaigns – right out of the gate?

RJ: If Sayin or Manning put up a gaudy stat line, they’ll likely vault to the top of the leaderboard. But Smith remains the player most likely to benefit from a big game. If he can turn his one catch for three yards last year against UT into a game that looks similar to the one he played against Oregon — seven catches for 187 yards with two TDs — he might sew up the Heisman in Week 1 and cruise to the stiff-arm trophy on the strength of a season tantamount to the one he enjoyed last year if OSU can reach the Big Ten title game.

Michael: RJ is correct in suggesting that a sterling performance from either quarterback will immediately thrust that player toward the upper echelon of early Heisman Trophy favorites in the same way that the college football world was buzzing — albeit briefly — about former USC quarterback Miller Moss when he completed 27 of 36 passes for 378 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in a high-profile, Week 1 victory over then-No. 13 LSU on a neutral site last year. But unlike Moss, who quickly faded from any legitimate consideration for the sport’s top award and wound up losing his starting job late in the year, it stands to reason that both Sayin and Manning should have greater staying power given both their individual pedigrees and the quality of their respective supporting casts. Manning, in particular, is considered among the odds-on favorites to win the award after the remarkable glimpses he showed while throwing for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and only two interceptions in just 260 snaps last season behind starter Quinn Ewers. 

As for any College Football Playoff seeding implications, it’s clear from last year’s introduction to the 12-team format that teams will no longer be eliminated from postseason consideration with a single defeat in the same way they might have been during the four-team era, especially if that loss comes against a quality opponent. Ohio State went on to win the national championship in 2024 despite losing two of its three most important games in the regular season against then-No. 3 Oregon and archrival Michigan. And there was no question the Buckeyes morphed into the best team in the country by January. 

Still, the winner of Saturday’s marquee matchup will be granted the early inside track toward the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s field, assuming the loser regains its footing and remains in the CFP discussion throughout the fall. That is especially true for Texas, which has an opportunity to secure what might be remembered as the sport’s best road victory of the season before the calendar even flips to September. It’s hard to find a better résumé-builder than that. 

4. Who wins the game and why?

Michael: Texas

It’s entirely possible that Ohio State will evolve into the best team in the country at some point this season, be that by the time conference play begins at Washington on Sept. 27, or sometime down the road when stiffer competition arrives in the form of No. 12 Illinois on Oct. 11, No. 2 Penn State on Nov. 1 and No. 14 Michigan on Nov. 29. If last year was any indication, it might take Day and the Buckeyes until mid-December for everything to click into place. 

But for right now, several days before the massive season opener against Texas, it certainly feels like there’s a bit too much change for Ohio State to overcome in Week 1 when facing such an elite opponent. It’s not just about the Buckeyes losing 14 players to the NFL Draft, tying the school record for most selections in a single year. Nor is it merely about the introduction of new starting quarterback Julian Sayin, an ultra-talented — but undersized — pocket passer whose competition with Lincoln Kienholz dragged on far longer than most people expected. Rather, it’s the combination of that wide-ranging roster overhaul with the sure-to-be-scrutinized debuts of two new coordinators in Brian Hartline, who is taking over for Chip Kelly, and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who replaces Jim Knowles, that presents early cause for concern. Too much change too soon can be difficult to overcome, especially when those changes include both on-field personnel and gameday operations. 

So while there was a similarly large player exodus at Texas, which sent 12 players to the NFL Draft, including seven starters on offense, the coaching infrastructure remained the same at the three most important spots: Sarkisian, who doubles as the team’s offensive playcaller is back; so, too, are offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Kyle Flood and defensive coordinator/outside linebackers coach Pete Kwiatkowski. That kind of continuity and familiarity among the Longhorns’ coaches could be a significant advantage come Saturday afternoon when both teams are incorporating droves of new players in a pressurized environment. 

RJ: Ohio State

The two best players in college football both play at Ohio State. One of them is Smith and the other Caleb Downs. Between those two players, they have men capable of scoring TDs offensively, defensively and on special teams. They have two players with the best set of hands on either team’s respective offense and defense, and they have playmakers — the kind that can erase mistakes and make a playcall wrong, even when it looked right at the snap. If the game is about which team’s best players make the best plays in the biggest moment, I’ll take Ohio State.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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