The New England Patriots, renewed under the leadership of head coach Mike Vrabel, could face a nightmare scenario if they fail to win all of their remaining games. While they currently appear to be riding high, a sudden downturn could quickly send them crashing back down to earth.
This Sunday, December 21, they face a crucial matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. If New England were to lose that game, and the Buffalo Bills were to defeat the Cleveland Browns, the Patriots would relinquish their grip on the top spot in the AFC East.
With that outlook, the situation would begin to grow complicated for New England, and the Cinderella story they have been living so far could quickly turn into a tale of beauty and the beast.
Although three pivotal games remain, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, even if the Patriots were to lose all three of their remaining contests, they would still maintain solid chances of reaching the postseason.
However, if they were to lose their division crown, they would also surrender the advantage of playing at home and would be forced to seek victories on the road. That scenario would significantly reduce their chances of extending the magical run they have crafted during the 2025 season.
The worst possible scenario for the Patriots
If the Patriots were to suffer a catastrophic collapse and lose the final three games of the regular season, the outlook would become extremely difficult. That outcome would place them in the worst possible position heading into the postseason.
That potential downfall, combined with a Chargers victory over the Cowboys and a Texans win against the Raiders, would effectively push New England to the margins. And if, by Week 17, they were to lose to the New York Jets, something that currently seems highly unlikely, they would officially fall from the top of their division.
A Week 18 loss to the Dolphins would hit the Patriots like a cold shower
For the storm clouds to fully break over the Patriots, a third consecutive defeat would need to arrive, this time against the Miami Dolphins.
If this bleak scenario were to unfold, New England would find itself in the seventh seed in the AFC. The Bills would claim the second seed, setting up yet another meeting between the two teams this season, this time on Buffalo’s home field.
Playing in Buffalo in January is never an appealing prospect for visiting teams. The significant home-field advantage enjoyed by the Bills could ultimately prove decisive, ending New England’s postseason hopes and bringing a close to what has been an impressive 2025 campaign.
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