It’s a new points system in 2026. So who will finish on top when all is said and done?
That is hard to say before the season even starts. It’s also hard to say who will be top-16 in the points after 26 races to just make NASCAR’s version of the postseason.
But here’s my best attempt at predictions for the 2026 NASCAR season:
Daytona 500 winner prediction
Chase Briscoe won the most recent superspeedway race at Talladega, and he was on the pole for the Daytona 500 a year ago. So he knows how to go fast, and he knows how to be in the right place at the right time. In a year when Indiana University won the national college football championship, maybe it’s just going to be a Hoosier kind of year. So I’m going with the Indiana native.
Regular-season champ prediction
Of all the drivers who should benefit from the new points system, many in the industry point to Chase Elliott. He is going to be consistent. He is going to win a couple of races. He was in the hunt for the regular-season title throughout 2025 before teammate William Byron outlasted him. This year, Elliott will be atop going into the postseason.
Chase participants prediction
- Christopher Bell
- Ryan Blaney
- Alex Bowman
- Chase Briscoe
- Chris Buescher
- William Byron
- Ross Chastain
- Chase Elliott
- Ty Gibbs
- Denny Hamlin
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Larson
- Joey Logano
- Ryan Preece
- Tyler Reddick
- Bubba Wallace
So who does this leave out? It leaves out Shane van Gisbergen, who won five races last year (all road courses). It leaves out heralded and hyped rookie Connor Zilisch. And it leaves out two-time Cup champion Kyle Busch. Why? It’s unknown whether they can be consistent and their organizations — Trackhouse Racing and Richard Childress Racing — are in transition when it comes to competition leadership.
Cup Series champion prediction
Ryan Blaney. Blaney can get a little flustered on the radio, but he still often finishes better than one would expect when watching him during the race. He’s going to be consistent over the final 10 races. If no one has a Chase where they are dominant, Blaney is going to be in the mix.
Rookie of the Year prediction
It would be easy to pick Connor Zilisch no matter the year. The fact he’s the only rookie makes it just slightly easier.
Comeback Driver of the Year prediction
Daniel Suárez. He was 29th in the standings last year. The move to Spire might not get him into the playoffs, but he’ll be top 20 in points by the end of the season and will earn at least one win.
O’Reilly Series champion prediction
Justin Allgaier. The JR Motorsports driver is the veteran of the series and knows how to rack up points. The 2024 series champion also, though, can stumble a little more than one would like in this system.
Truck Series champion prediction
Layne Riggs. Riggs set the foundation the last two years for a championship run. Now it’s time for the Front Row Motorsports driver to go out and do it.
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