Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
People who have been following me know that, during football season, I have weekly picks on NFL and college football.
But with both of those seasons behind us, I’m giving you some non-football futures wagers that I like.
With that in mind, let’s dive into my picks for The Masters.
Scottie Scheffler to win The Masters
Scheffler hasn’t won yet this year, but he’s got a couple of top-three finishes and is seeking his third win in four years. Do I like taking 9/2 on him? No. But there’s a chance he goes out early Thursday and posts 69 or 70, and he’ll never be longer than that price.
PICK: Scottie Scheffler (+450) to win The Masters
Jon Rahm to win The Masters, top 10, top 20
It seems the only thing we hear about Rahm these days is about his potential LIV-PGA Tour deal. Remember, this is a guy who has a green jacket and has four other top-10s in Augusta. If we get some more rain in the area, that could definitely help him (and Scottie Scheffler, too) on the greens.
PICK: John Rahm (+1300) to win The Masters
PICK: John Rahm (+125) top-10 finish
PICK: John Rahm (-190) top-20 finish
Bryson DeChambeau to win The Masters, top 10, top 20
In his last 10 rounds at Augusta, DeChambeau has two rounds of 67 or better and six rounds of 75 or worse. He’s paid the price for his Par 67 comment, and after his U.S. Open win last year, it feels like his whole persona changed. He seems looser and gone is the bulked-up Bryson. Maybe that will help him here, as he looks to tame a course he’s struggled with for the most part.
PICK: Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) to win The Masters
PICK: Bryson DeChambeau (+160) top-10 finish
PICK: Bryson DeChambeau (-150) top-20 finish
Collin Morikawa top 10, top 20
Morikawa was third behind Scheffler last year before really struggling with a final round 74. But he’s posted top-10 finishes in each of the last three years, and with the emphasis on this being a second shot course, who better to have than Morikawa? He’s taken a ton of play and his price to win has fallen. But I think the top 10 and top 20 peripherals are very strong plays.
PICK: Collin Morikawa (+130) top-10 finish
PICK: Collin Morikawa (-190) top-20 finish
Cameron Smith top 10, top 20
Maybe he doesn’t work at it anymore after getting his major and LIV payday. But plus-money to finish in the top 20 on a guy that’s gone 6-34-3-10-2 the last five years in Augusta? Seems like a great course fit where he’s gonna see his name on the leaderboard, as long as he shows up.
PICK: Cameron Smith (+360) top-10 finish
PICK: Cameron Smith (+150) top-20 finish
Xander Schauffele top 20
Xander has finished in the top 20 in each of his last 11 majors. Recovering from injury, a slow start to the year — I don’t care. The black chips are on the table, which means we’ll see the best of Schauffele.
PICK: Xander Schauffele (-150) top-20 finish
MATCHUPS
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy
I’ll look to fade Rory in as many head-to-head matchups as I can. He’s not going to win this week. In the last six years, he’s missed the cut twice, and the four times he made the cut, he entered the weekend outside the top 20. So it’s been a while since he was in the mix entering the weekend after 36 holes. He’s got a couple of backdoor top-fives in that span, for what it’s worth. Interesting side note on his quest to finish off the career slam: Of the five players in The Masters era who completed the career Grand Slam, each of them needed three or fewer starts in the needed major to win and finish off the slam from the time they won their third different major. McIlroy’s 11th attempt at the career Grand Slam will come this week. So while Rory seemingly has many more shots to finish off the career slam, history says if you don’t finish it off quickly, you never will.
PICK: Scottie Scheffler (-145) over Rory McIlroy
Corey Conners vs. Hideki Matsuyama
The 2021 Masters Champion enters in poor form and questionable fitness. So while his track record here is fantastic, I’ll take the Canadian, who himself has three top-10s in the last five years and has played much better since finishing up the West Coast swing.
PICK: Corey Conners (+115) over Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel to miss cut
His record is spotty this year, even though he was the hero of TGL. He’s flirted with the cut line here each of his last three trips and has missed it a couple of other times.
PICK: Billy Horschel (+125) to miss cut
Sam Burns to miss cut
Burns has missed the cut in two of his three Masters trips and enters having missed the cut in his last three events. He’s been poor off the tee and approach, which doesn’t bode well for his chances of hanging around for the weekend.
PICK: Sam Burns (+125) to miss cut
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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