2025 NFL Week 1 Picks: Best Bets for Every Game — Will's Wagers

Will Hill

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Wise weekly wagers … what would an NFL bettor want worse?

Alliteration aside, the NFL season is just about underway, meaning bettors across the nation are ready to dole out some cash on a weekly basis.

That’s where I come in.

Each week, I will deliver my favorite bet from each and every game on the NFL schedule.

Welcome to Will’s Wagers.

(All times ET)

THURSDAY, SEPT. 4

COWBOYS @ EAGLES (8:20 p.m., NBC)

George Pickens Over 55.5 receiving yards

The talented-but-temperamental wide receiver will go from subpar quarterback play with the Steelers to a more pass-friendly offense with Dak Prescott. He’ll also be in an offense that has CeeDee Lamb to take much of the defensive attention away from him. In a game where Dallas is an 8.5-point underdog, it’ll likely throw a lot to catch up, which bolsters receiving stats.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 5

CHIEFS @ CHARGERS (8:15 p.m., YouTube)

Over 45.5 points

This game will be played in Brazil, and last year’s Brazil matchup saw the Packers and Eagles combine for 63 points, in a game in which both defenses struggled to maintain their footing and both offenses dominated. I expect the Chiefs to put a renewed emphasis on big offensive plays, something they struggled with over the past few seasons. With premier quarterbacks squaring off, I expect these teams to fly Over the point total of 45.5.

SUNDAY, SEPT. 7

GIANTS @ COMMANDERS (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Giants +6.5

The Commanders swept the season series against the Giants last year, but won both games by just a combined eight points. The 12 wins by the Commanders were impressive, but included a lot of good fortune in close games against a shaky group of opposing quarterbacks. I like the Giants to keep this one close.

BENGALS @ BROWNS (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Browns +5.5

The Bengals have struggled early in the season in recent years. They’ve lost four of their last five season openers, and haven’t won in Week 1 since 2021. Included in that streak was a 24-3 loss in Cleveland to start 2023. The Browns might not be very good, but home underdogs in Week 1 in divisional games typically do very well covering the spread. I like taking the points here.

STEELERS @ JETS (1 p.m., CBS)

Under 38.5 points

Plenty of storylines here, with Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields both starting at quarterback against the teams they started at quarterback for in Week 1 of last year. Lots of subplots, too, but I’m not sure if there will be lots of points. Mike Tomlin and Aaron Glenn are two defensive-minded head coaches, and with solid defenses on each side, I expect an ugly 19-16 type of game.

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RAIDERS @ PATRIOTS (1 p.m., CBS)

Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 rushing attempts

New Raiders head coach Pete Carroll is old school and believes in running the ball. With the sixth overall pick, running back Ashton Jeanty, at his disposal, look for the rookie to get plenty of chances to touch the football and go Over the 16.5 attempts.

CARDINALS @ SAINTS (1 p.m., CBS)

Saints +6.5

I’m optimistic about the Cardinals’ outlook this season, but laying nearly a full touchdown on the road is typically reserved for the elite teams in the league. The Saints might be bad and might even be bad enough to pick first next April, but this is too much respect for the unproven Cardinals.

BUCCANEERS @ FALCONS (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Falcons +2.5

Another home divisional ‘dog, so I’ll take the points once again. The Falcons swept the season series last year, despite coughing up the division title to the Bucs. With two fairly even teams, I’ll take the home squad catching points in what should be a close game.

DOLPHINS @ COLTS (1 p.m., CBS)

Dolphins +1.5

The Dolphins’ biggest issues as a team? Keeping their star players healthy and playing in cold weather. Neither of those obstacles are present in this one, as Tua Tagavailoa enters the season healthy and with his full complement of outstanding weapons. It’s easy to forget that two years ago, the Dolphins offense set the league on fire and flirted with capturing the top seed in the AFC late into the season. I’m not sure that they will replicate that level of success in 2025, but I do like them to go 1-0.

TITANS @ BRONCOS (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

RJ Harvey Over 34.5 rushing yards

Sean Payton is known for using a rotation of running backs, but rookie RJ Harvey was drafted early for a reason and should emerge as the lead back in Denver. In a game where the Broncos are heavily favored, Harvey could sail Over what is a pretty attainable mark here, with the Broncos likely running the ball plenty in the second half.

PANTHERS @ JAGUARS (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Bryce Young Over 213.5 passing yards

In a battle of former No. 1 overall picks at quarterback, Bryce Young draws a Jaguars defense that was dead last in pass defense last year, allowing over 257 yards per game through the air. Young looked like a bust through his first year and some change in the NFL, but showed flashes late last year of what made him the top pick in the 2023 draft. Look for Young to go Over in what is a favorable matchup.

49ERS @ SEAHAWKS (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Christian McCaffrey Under 74.5 rushing yards

It wasn’t long ago that McCaffrey was one of the best running backs in the league and a legitimate MVP candidate. But at age 29, McCaffrey has seen better days. Last year, he averaged only four yards per carry and did not find the end zone on any of his 65 touches. This line is inflated based on McCaffrey’s reputation. I like the Under.

LIONS @ PACKERS (4:25 p.m., CBS)

Packers first quarter winner

Most teams defer when they win the coin toss and decide to start on defense. The Packers, however, typically choose to take the ball and start on offense. Chances are, they will have the first possession and two of the first three, making them a solid bet to win the first quarter.

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TEXANS @ RAMS (4:25 p.m., CBS)

Matthew Stafford Under 32.5 passing attempts

Stafford missed much of training camp and didn’t play in the preseason, spending a lot of the summer dealing with a bad back. Stafford is starting, but I could see Rams head coach Sean McVay protecting his quarterback a bit more than usual, and opting for a more run-heavy game plan.

RAVENS @ BILLS (8:20 p.m., NBC)

Ravens team total Over 24.5 points

In a rematch from a divisional-round meeting in the postseason last year, the Bills come into this one with some injury concerns in their secondary. This Ravens team is not one you want to face with a banged-up defense, as it averaged over 30 points per game last year, and led the NFL with 6.8 yards per play on offense. In what should be a fun game, I expect the Ravens to put up plenty of points, in what will be ideal weather for offense against an injury-riddled defense.

MONDAY, SEPT. 8

VIKINGS @ BEARS (8:15 p.m., ESPN)

First half Under 22.5 total points scored

J.J. McCarthy will make his first career NFL start and do so on the road. Meanwhile, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will face a Vikings defense that is coached by Brian Flores, one of the most respected defensive coordinators in football. With two young quarterbacks, nerves could be a factor early on, and perhaps both coaches look to be conservative and avoid early turnovers. Points could be hard to come by early in this one.

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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