Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Only eight teams are left standing in the quest to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in the Super Bowl on FOX on Feb. 9.
With a mere seven games remaining in these playoffs, we will soon go from watching the NFL every week to counting down the days until it returns again in September.
This weekend will narrow the field down to just a pair of finalists in each conference, as only one of the squads will win its next three games and be crowned champion. Unfortunately, Wild Card Weekend did not give us many exciting finishes or any shocking upsets.
But a lack of upsets in the early rounds of tournaments can often pay dividends later on, as we are now on the brink of some incredible matchups next weekend, if chalk continues to hold.
Let’s look at the four matchups this weekend and find a bet for every game.
Texans @ Chiefs (-8.5, 41.5)
While it’s never much fun to watch Patrick Mahomes when you have a bet on the other team, the Chiefs only have four wins by double-digits out of their 15 wins this season.
A tricky variable in this one is that the Chiefs rested most of their starters in Week 18 against the Broncos, had last weekend off, and played on Wednesday in their Week 17 win against Pittsburgh on Christmas.
It’s hard to forecast such a long layoff, but my favorite play here is the Under.
The Texans have a very good defense, a subpar offensive line and limited weapons. They will face a Chiefs defense that comes into this game the healthiest it’s been in quite some time.
PICK: Under 41.5 points scored by both teams combined
Commanders @ Lions (-9, 55.5)
I sense some sentiment for the underdog Commanders this week, and it’s understandable.
Everyone watched their sensational young quarterback Jayden Daniels lead the team on a game-winning drive as time expired last week against the Buccaneers. But the Lions are loaded offensively and have an elite home-field advantage, while the Commanders are still flawed defensively, especially against the run.
The bet I really like here is a unique one and that’s Under 5.5 punts for the game.
Both teams are ultra aggressive on fourth down, and both teams have offenses that aren’t going to go three-and-out much.
PICK: Under 5.5 punts by both teams combined
Jalen Hurts ranked No. 8, Jayden Daniels at No. 6 in Colin’s playoff QB rankings
Rams @ Eagles (-6, 44)
The Rams are another team of underdogs that come into this weekend off of a performance that creates some confidence for bettors. They dismantled the 14-3 Vikings in their wild-card matchup 27-9 by dominating on both sides of the ball.
Los Angeles has a likely Hall of Fame quarterback in Matthew Stafford and possibly a Hall of Fame head coach in Sean McVay. It also has an impressive pass rush that was on full display against Sam Darnold and the Vikings last week. That’s not a bad start.
But a warm-weather team from L.A. going to cold and hostile Philadelphia off of a short week is a tough assignment.
PICK: Eagles (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen: Which QB will lead their team closer to Super Bowl?
Ravens (1.5, 51.5) @ Bills
What a matchup! A battle of two teams this good usually takes place in the conference title game, if not the Super Bowl.
However, I give the slight edge to the Ravens here.
While both quarterbacks — Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen — are outstanding and will finish first and second in some order in the MVP voting, Derrick Henry is a weapon the Bills don’t have. Henry ran for 199 yards in Week 4 against Buffalo, a 35-10 Baltimore victory. In that regular-season meeting, the Ravens gained an incredible eight yards per play, doubling the Bills’ average of just four yards per play.
I’ll go with the road team here in what is the most-anticipated game of the weekend.
PICK: Ravens (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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