2025 MLB Contender Rankings: Brewers, Phillies start to separate; Mariners, Padres on the rise

With less than two months remaining in the MLB regular season, it’s time to shift the attention forward.

Rather than continue to rank all 30 teams, many of whom sold at the deadline and effectively threw in the towel on competing in 2025, what’s important now are the clubs who still remain relevant in the playoff picture.

Some of them (Mariners, Padres, Phillies) are surging after adding critical pieces for the stretch run. Some (Yankees, Mets) are still trying to reap the rewards of their deadline activity. And others (Brewers, Red Sox) are thriving despite their deadline inactivity.

As we keep an eye on the playoff races, we’re graduating from the usual weekly power rankings and moving to weekly contender rankings, turning the focus to the teams worth paying attention to down the stretch.

(Note: Only teams within five games of a playoff spot were considered for these rankings.)

The Nationals have the second-worst run differential in MLB, 45 runs worse than the last-place A’s and 68 runs worse than the last-place White Sox…and just took two of three games from the Giants in San Francisco. Is that an auto disqualification from this list? The Giants have now lost 10 of their last 15 games and are 7-14 since selling at the break.

After deciding to buy at the deadline, occurrences like this weekend — a series loss to the Twins — can’t really happen if the Royals hope to remain in the mix. The upcoming stretch offers a lifeline, though, with critical bounceback opportunities against the Nationals and White Sox.

Despite selling some key pieces of their bullpen at the deadline, the Cardinals continue hanging in the mix. They’re back up above .500 after series wins against the Dodgers and Cubs as they prepare to host the lowly Rockies.

They finally looked like they might go on a roll, coming out of the break hot. The last couple of weeks have doused that flame. They’ve lost nine of their last 13 games, and after taking a series against the Yankees, they mustered just five runs over three games while getting swept by the Phillies. The offense just can’t sustain production.

The Reds have played .500 ball over their last 20 games, which, considering the Mets’ spiral, is enough to make things interesting in the NL wild-card race. The Cincinnati rotation, a group that ranks in the top 10 in ERA, is set to get a significant boost with Hunter Greene due back this week. The Reds’ pitching staff should allow them to stick around, but do they have enough pop at the plate to make a run? It should be noted that they have the toughest strength of schedule ahead of any playoff hopeful.

The bullpen has still been a stunning mess since the Yankees remade the group at the deadline, and their offense has the second-lowest OPS in MLB this month. But their struggles stretch back much further. Since the start of June, they are 27-34 — tied for the sixth-worst record in MLB. On the bright side? As bad as it’s been, they would still make the playoffs if the season ended today.

It’s hard to remember now, but the Mets went on a seven-game winning streak at the end of July. Since then, they’ve dropped 11 of 12 games and are basically the foil to a Brewers team that swept them over the weekend. The offense is in a funk. The rotation has an ERA over 6.00 in August. The New York clubs have to hope this is rock bottom and not a lasting trend.

The vibes couldn’t have been much worse at the end of July. Emmanuel Clase, the latest Guardians pitcher to become embroiled in the league’s gambling investigation, was placed on leave. Shane Bieber was traded to Toronto. Still, the Guardians opted against a full sell-off and still possessed plenty of weapons at the back end of the bullpen to compete. And that’s exactly what they’re doing. They’re 9-2 in their last 11 games and have moved within a game of a wild-card spot.

Considering how mediocre he had been all year in Minnesota, I wondered how much the Carlos Correa trade would actually lift an Astros team that clearly needed some reinforcements to handle the avalanche of injuries afflicting the roster. The answer, evidently, is “a lot.” He looks rejuvenated in Houston, and the Astros rebounded from a beatdown in Boston by winning back-to-back series against the Marlins and Yankees.

This is how to respond when your front office shows faith at the deadline. After a week-long slump to start the month, Cal Raleigh dumped a go-ahead home run over the fence on Friday to erase a late two-run deficit and proceeded to homer each of the next two nights, too, as the Mariners swept the Rays. They’ve now won nine of their last 10 games, are the top wild-card team in the American League and are only a half-game back of the Astros in the division. Look out.

A trip to San Diego ended Boston’s streak of consecutive series victories at four. Still, the vibes are strong for a Red Sox team that is 23-10 since the start of July and just inked rookie phenom Roman Anthony to an eight-year extension. A major reason for the upswing, though, is the veterans. Since the start of June, shortstop Trevor Story has been the fifth-best hitter at his position by wRC+, and Alex Bregman has picked up where he left off since returning from injury. Keeping Jarren Duran at the deadline looks prudent, too, as he has an OPS over 1.000 over his last 20 games.

The Tigers got back on track with a series win in Anaheim, but they’ve yet to recapture their first-half magic. They still have a comfortable lead in the AL Central, but they’re only 9-13 since the All-Star break and 15-19 since the start of July. After making a medley of moves on the margins at the deadline, their pitching staff ranks 24th in ERA in August.

For most of the year, it was hard to imagine the Padres winning games without Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado starring. Each of them has an OPS under .600 in August, and yet the Padres have still won four straight series and 11 of their last 14 games. That’s at least in part a testament to the deadline additions they made, which have brought a lot more hope for a postseason run.

Not every team can withstand extended struggles from their top talents. The Cubs’ electric offense is suddenly scuffling, as Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch have all hit a rough patch in August. So has the team, which is now six games back in the division after series losses to the Reds and Cardinals.

The Blue Jays went from scoring 45 runs on 63 hits over three games at Coors Field to seven runs on 24 hits over three games at Dodger Stadium. The former, unsurprisingly, resulted in a resounding sweep. The latter was a series loss. Still, the Blue Jays salvaged the series in Los Angeles on Sunday and hold a four-game lead in the AL East as the Yankees continue to flounder. At some point soon, Shane Bieber, Andrés Giménez and George Springer should be providing a boost, though it’s a bit concerning that Springer still has boxes to check in concussion protocol two weeks after getting hit in the head by a pitch.

The Dodgers squandered an opportunity to sweep the first-place Blue Jays at home and still have issues in their bullpen, but the upswings of the rotation (which has Blake Snell back and an MLB-best 1.46 ERA in August) and Mookie Betts (who has nine hits in his last five games) have the arrow pointing up in Los Angeles. The lineup looks a lot different with a healthy Max Muncy in it.

Jhoan Duran looks to be the quintessential deadline add. He’s a perfect 4-for-4 in save opportunities — including two this weekend in a sweep at Texas — and has allowed just one baserunner since taking over ninth-inning duties in Philadelphia. The Phillies have allowed only 13 runs over their last seven games and are 6-1 in that time, stretching their lead on the Mets to 5.5 games. Zack Wheeler’s health, though, is worth monitoring as he works through some shoulder soreness.

Remember when the Brewers started the year 25-28? Well, they’ve won 48 of their last 64 games since then and are playing like they’ll never lose again. In a season in which few elite teams have really separated themselves, Milwaukee is playing at a level above everyone else. Since the break, the Brewers have as many sweeps (four) as total losses (four). They’ve now won nine straight games and 12 of their last 13.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.