It feels like this college football season is moving at hyperspeed.
And now, we’ve reached the point in the year when we can start predicting, with at least some certainty, which teams will be in the College Football Playoff.
Sure, anything could happen over the next month and a half, but there are at least two squads that need a winning weekend to keep the dream alive.
With that in mind, let’s dive into my best bets for college football Week 8.
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Washington @ Michigan
Washington is 5-1 heading into Ann Arbor after Michigan lost to USC last weekend. Michigan fell to 4-2, and now this game will be a playoff elimination game for both squads.
Oddly enough, Washington is unranked, but a win this weekend would get the Huskies into the top-25 picture. On the other side, with the Wolverines already having a win at Nebraska, and with Ohio State still on the schedule, a 10-2 Michigan squad would make the Playoff.
UW has struggled on the road under second-year head coach Jedd Fisch. Last season, the Huskies went winless outside the state of Washington and this season, they needed a 20-point comeback at Maryland to notch their first conference road win.
This game is the dreaded 9 a.m., body-clock game for a West Coast team, and we’ve seen the struggles so far this season in these kinds of matchups. Both Oregon and USC had issues starting fast when traveling East for this kickoff. Fisch has discussed how he’s spoken to the Seattle Seahawks and others about the best way to make the trip.
It seems like their struggles on the road are at the forefront of their game preparation this weekend.
Washington’s offense is dynamic, and it is led by quarterback Demond Williams. He has thrown for 1,628 yards and added 493 yards on the ground. That number is less than his actual rushing production because of sacks. The UW offense has been iffy for basically six quarters this season, and that was when Ohio State and Maryland were able to keep Williams in the pocket. That offense slows down when his movement is kept in check and that will be the job of Michigan’s defense.
The Wolverines’ D is 17th against the rush and 12th in pressure rate, but it just got gashed by USC on Saturday. Washington’s offense is more traditional in scheme and after the way Michigan’s defense played on Saturday, I believe we will see a better performance this week.
It’s hard to square Washington’s overall defensive efficiency numbers with some of the results on the field. The Huskies are 26th in overall SP+ defensive efficiency, but they are not good.
That unit ranks 90th on third down, 73rd in points per drive, 70th in pressure rate and 108th in havoc. Michigan’s passing offense can be limited, but it can run the football, and if Michigan can run the ball on first down, the Wolverines will get Washington’s defense into a position where it won’t find much success.
We’ve also seen true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood play much better at home than on the road. Part of that is due to Michigan’s opponents, but it’s also just being more comfortable at home. I don’t think Washington can slow down Michigan’s offense.
I have to reiterate that it’s a body-clock game for the Huskies. They’ve played poorly on the road. Michigan was embarrassed last weekend and has played better at home. I like Michigan to cover this game.
PICK: Michigan (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
Penn State @ Iowa
Penn State is in disarray.
The Nittany Lions have lost three in a row, and in two of those games, they were favored by more than 20 points. Their quarterback is gone for the season after suffering a lower-body injury in Week 7.
Oh, and they fired head coach James Franklin.
The more you dive into the situation with people who are in the know at Penn State, you see reports saying that this team is broken, and that guys are playing for their draft stock.
A coaching change does not solve these issues — you need the culture change that comes with a new head coach, seeing as how Penn State is a sinking ship that currently does nothing well.
Iowa is off a big 37-0 win against Wisconsin, which will only give the Hawkeyes more confidence in this game. Playing a night game at Iowa is already a daunting task, and now Penn State is doing it with a quarterback making the first start of his career.
The Nittany Lions’ offensive line is poor and the Hawkeyes defense will take advantage. I like Iowa to win and cover.
PICK: Iowa (-3) to win by more than 3 points
North Carolina @ Cal
North Carolina stinks.
The Tar Heels have played three Power Four opponents this season and the results are poor. There was the 48-14 loss to TCU at home in Week 1, the 34-9 loss at UCF and then a 38-10 loss to Clemson.
If you’re keeping score, at home that’s 120-33 combined in those three games.
North Carolina spent its bye week having to defend the current program, as rumors of Bill Belichick’s early departure after this season started to swirl. Now the Tar Heels must travel across the country to play a 10:30 p.m. ET body-clock game at Cal.
Night games at Cal are where things get weird and Carolina isn’t built for that.
Carolina’s offense is 113th in points per drive and 127th in EPA per play. The Tar Heels generate no explosive plays and can’t block anyone. That is less than ideal for a road game against a good Cal defense.
The Golden Bears defense ranks 55th in points per drive. It doesn’t allow explosive plays and is able to create tackles for loss with a good scheme. It is difficult to move the ball on and will be more physical than UNC.
PICK: UNC team total Under 17.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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