“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Here we are, down to the last four teams. It’s been fun watching the madness of March, but it’s somewhat bittersweet that it will all be over soon.
But not before we get another wager in!
Here’s where I’m putting my money for the UConn-Illinois game, and some historical Bear Bytes about the tourney.
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No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn
I know the Big East wasn’t very good this year outside of Connecticut and St. John’s, and I guess, to an extent, Villanova.
The Huskies already have an early-season win over Illinois, a game in which Tarris Reed played 15 minutes, Braylon Mullins 10 and Keaton Wagler just 14 (scored three points). There’s been a lot of talk this week about how Wagler wasn’t Wagler yet. However, the same can be said for the Huskies, whose two biggest players in the Tournament had minimal, if any impact in that game.
The Illini were 6-for-29 from 3-point range in that game, too.
In the regional, Reed was 18-for-32 from the field with 46 points, 14 rebounds and six blocks. He’s been a monster. Will the Illini’s size negate some of that? UConn beat Duke despite missing 17 of its first 18 3-point shots.
Surely the Huskies won’t have that poor a shooting performance again, will they?
In addition to the win over Duke and over Michigan State in the regional, UConn has Kansas, Florida and Texas wins from the regular season and a 4-point loss to Arizona in a game which the Huskies led with 1:30 left, despite Reed and Mullins not playing at all.
I know all the analytics and sites that track power ratings have the Illini favored here, but I just don’t see it.
Here’s an interesting nugget: Illinois went 2-6 against the other top seven teams in the Big Ten, granted four of the losses came in OT.
Would it surprise me if Illinois won? Of course not. But there’s something about a Dan Hurley team come tourney time that just clicks.
I’ll take the points here.
PICK: UConn (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points or win outright
Bear Bytes
- UConn is the eighth team since seeding began to win both its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games by four points or fewer and the first to do so since 2018 Kansas. Of the previous seven teams to do it, only 1997 Arizona wound up winning the national title. Three others — 2003 Kansas, 1996 Syracuse and 1992 Michigan — reached the title game and lost.
- Illinois is the second non-1-seed to reach the Final Four, having beaten a 9-seed and an 11-seed en route. The 1994 Florida team is the other to do it. The 3-seeded Gators lost to 2-seed Duke in the Final Four that year.
- There have been nine previous examples of a Final Four where one semifinal matched up two 1-seeds and the other did not have a 1-seed. The previous three times were in 2018, 2002 and 1996, and the Final Four matchup featuring the 1-seeds produced the national champion. However, the 1-seed semifinal has produced the national champ just five of nine times and produced some of the most legendary upsets in tourney history. Those were 1988 Kansas over Oklahoma, 1985 Villanova over Georgetown and in 1983, NC State over Houston.
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